The GQ Approach – Laurel November 27

by | Nov 27, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday throughout 2016; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5. 

 

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $396.59
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 5 / #5 – Weatherurnot (2-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 8  / #6 – My Magician (15-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double 3, 8, 11 w/ 1, 4, 5  ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  2, 6, 7  w/ 2, 3, 8  w/ 3, 5, 7  ($13.50)
  • Race 5: $0.50 Pick-5  5  w/ 2, 6, 10  w/  2, 6 w/ 6, 11 w/ 6 ($6)
  • Race 8: $2 Double 6, 9, 11  w/ 4, 6, 8  ($18)

 

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 5 (1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 8th)
  • Weather: Partly Sunny, highs in the low 50’s
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

 

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Chilly Magician (6-1): Wanted to go long on turf @ Bel in last outing but was washed off; if he can run on turf like he did on synthetic @ Pid, he won’t be a maiden for long
  2. #11 – A True Gentleman (7-2): Failed to graduate when 9-5 PT favorite in latest; will need to use much of that speed early to clear field into short run up to the first turn
  3.  #3 – Smash and Dash (4-1): FTS by Hard Spun out of a Sadler’s Wells mare is bred top & bottom for the turf; trainer M. Eppler scores w/ 29% maiden claiming firsters       

 

Race 2

  1. #5 – Mac North (8-1): Got diploma in 9th career start when dropped well below where he needed to go; Brisnet Prime Power# is actually better than prohibitive ML favorite; can repeat at a price
  2. #4 – Ten Hut (7-5): Typical second race off the claim move for trainer K. Magee, dropping back down to or below claiming price to get a “W” but IMHO not a “sure thing” as ML suggests
  3. #1 – Breezed Bayou (12-1): Drawing a line through most recent race on an off track (5:0-0-1) when 4-1; should get at least twice that and back on a fast track and early lead     

 

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Silver Romeo (3-1): Comes off worst of 6 turf efforts (6th by 3¾) since being under the care of H. McMahon, which actually was his best based Brisnet#, which continue to ascend; switch to hot rider (F. Lynch) makes the difference today
  2. #7 – Ian Smith (6-1): There’s stamina in his Mom’s bloodlines to believe he can handle stretch out to two turns; third race after layoff and second time blinkers angles at work here as well 
  3. #6 – Immunity (8-1): Solid turf runner broke maiden in latest when dropped in for $25k tag; speed figs are consistent enough to believe he can make presence known in deep stretch          

 

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Zipping By (5-1): Gets class relief today and yet another rider switch seeking magical formula to get this gelded son of City Zip to Winners’ Circle again; might want early lead 
  2. #2 – Storm Candy (15-1): Needs a more alert start in order to be a threat late; H. Karamanos sticking around for another chance bodes well to be in a more prominent position turning for home
  3. #3 – Fuse Line (30-1): The common theme with this 8 y.o. turf efforts is showing early speed going long; cutting back to ta sprint and K. Davis back in the irons after dull dirt try in first race after layoff sets up for potential for juicy returns

 

Race 5 

  1. #5 – Weatherurnot (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Lightbulb Theory candidate after gate-to-wire score now cuts back to tricky middle distance where she was a runner-up in that only effort
  2. #3 – Proud Maid Marian (9-2): Small barn has done well (2 for 4) with “third race after layoff” runners; switches back to dirt and reunited with jock (T. McCarthy) whose guided her to only win and both runner-up finishes of her 8 race career
  3. #7 – Pure Music (5-1): Took 5 length into stretch only to get caught in final strides when going two turns @ Pen in latest effort at this level; cut back to 7 furlongs and jock upgrade to V. Carrasco could make her a winner in here      

 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Take It Inside (5-1): Runner-up in latest when getting the best of other two mentioned below; gets 1/16th break in distance which may make all the difference in the world
  2.  #6 – Ginger Beer (4-1): Hard luck runner continues to be denied a trip to Winners Circle in 2016 (12:0-3-1) yet small barn having a great meet (6:3-1-1) and year (7 for 20)
  3.  #2 – Sally Oh Sally (7-2): Could bounce back and get the better of the top two in here since she didn’t have the cleanest of trips when sent off 2-1 favorite; never OTB at this distance & surface      

 

Race 7

  1. #6 – Little Miss Lupe (9-2): Exits $15k Open Claimer for the K. Gomez/C. Gonzalez team (19%); like the fact that she’s 2 for 3 at this middle distance while logging much better speed figs v. her recent 6f numbers
  2. #2 – If I Was a Boy (4-1): … she wouldn’t be in this race restricted to fillies and mares; T. McCarthy get back aboard as he’s guided this to her lone win and two runner-up finishes this past Spring
  3. #1 – Hold On Momma (5-2): Tough assignment from the rail for filly coming off a 4 month layoff; just 3 works leading up to return; might be vulnerable favorite in spite of hot jock in the irons      

 

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – My Magician (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Interesting how jock J. Pimentel switches from #7 (12-1) who he won on two back, to get leg up from trainer M. Trombetta, as he used to be 1st Call rider; looking at only two turf tries, one in a minor stakes, were better than running line suggests
  2. #11 – Ready for Romance (5-1): Have to believe this R. Rodriguez NY shipper will take a ton of action in spite of making first start in 14 months; this daughter of More Than Ready could easily make every pole a winning one
  3. #9 – Rumble Doll (3-1): Well-traveled 5 y.o. mare makes Lrl debut and can boast best turf Brisnet# of this bunch; ITM 13 of 15 turf starts while competing in plenty of non-graded stakes  

 

Race 9

  1. #6 – Kantharos Legend (8-5): Looks like this Live Oak Plantation home bred isn’t making the cut so it’s time to cut bait, dropping in for $14k in just third career outing; first start on natural dirt but recent works @ Fai indicate she’ll handle it
  2. #4 – Trudys Lucky (5-1): Connections been throwing darts trying to see what might work… different jock, blinkers off and now stretch her out; last effort may have been better if not for traffic issues
  3. #8 – Cazzie Cottonwood (20-1): Taking a flyer on this one w/ thoughts that stretching out on dirt and dropping to level from effort two back when sprinting, she ran evenly could translate in wanting more distance  

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday November 26th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10 race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $6.20 (2nd race), $56.20 (3rd), $5.00 (4th), $11.40 (7th), $10.60 (8th) and $12.00 (9th). Year-to-date Top Selections are 271 for 1,078 (25.14%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (113: 29-23-16) Lady Allegra (9th race: 9-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) prominent four wide around the turn, gained a short lead between horse in mid-stretch and gave way late to finish 4th just a half-length behind the winner.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (110: 11-13-16) Simplyirresistible (1st race: 10-1 M/L; 11-1 PT) three wide into the first turn, was not a factor and finished 10th.