The GQ Approach – Laurel October 30

by | Oct 30, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday throughout 2016; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5. 

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $4,499.30
  • Super High 5: $2,424.75
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 8 / #5 – Rumblin Kyle (4-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 11 / #12 – So Outspoken (10-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]
 

  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 4, 7  w/ 1, 4, 6  ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  5, 9, 10  w/ 2, 6, 10  w/ 4, 6, 12  ($13.50)
  • Race 7: $0.50 Pick-5  1, 3  w/ 4, 6, 8  w/ 5  w/ 3, 9, 11  w/ 8, 12 ($18)
  • Race 10: $2 Double 3, 9, 11  w/ 4, 8, 12  ($18)

 

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6 (4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th)
  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the low 70’s
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

 

Race 1

  1. #7 – Zuzanna (9-2): In Debut going 6f had the look of a filly who wants two turns; runner-up from that race came back to break maiden here yesterday                 
  2. #4 – Dixie Rose (5-1): In three career starts hasn’t even been backed by connections being sent off at 25-1, 31-1 and 62-1; best finish (3rd two back on dirt) was to two next out winnners                   
  3. #1 – One Call Away (4-1): High profile owners and trainer might think the Land of Pleasant Living will be easier for this Unbridled Song filly to get diploma… not anymore; adds Blinkers       

 

Race 2

  1. #1 – Rally With Class (2-1): Only runner in here to have won more than 2 races (he is 4 for 7 lifetime); goes for fourth in a row; second start for J. Ness after claim          
  2. #4 – Bird Call (9-5): Destroyed $5kN2L @ Pen in first career start on dirt after 6 on turf; who knows how good he can be on the main track so step up is warranted              
  3. #6 – Boon Companion (6-1): Typically not advisable to back runner in first race off K. Magee claim but the field has so much early speed, it should help this Closing Sprinter     

 

Race 3

  1. #5 – Convoyarie (9-2): Earned third win of career here over a “good” track; all others in here only have 2 career wins; solid performer who is always competitive at this level    
  2. #9 – Chattolanee (12-1): Could be Lone Speed as K. Gomez has guided her to Winners Circle in 2 of last 3 efforts; has done well since switching from turf to dirt         
  3. #10 – Sweet Peaches (4-1): Been running over her head in last two; easily got second career win three races back v. $5kN2L when making first start for trainer M. Trombetta              

 

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Tribal Transit (6-1): Beaten favorite in second start after being runner-up in debut; both coming at same condition, surface and distance as today; looking for a run that more resembles debut effort                
  2. #2 – Perfect Party Girl (9-2): Ha been looking great out of the gate and led the field into deep stretch in last two but unable to seal the deal; let’s hope as she matures she’ll build stamina       
  3. #10 – Deep Pockets (12-1): FTS by Lonhro out of an El Prado mare is an automatic must use for this Capper in spite of trainer K. Demasi’s 0 for 21 with firsters on turf

 

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Datt Melody (3-1): Should have a perfect stalking trip behind a pair of early speed types while getting firsts jump in the stretch on all the deep closers        
  2. #12 – Pizmo Time (5-2): Appears to be more of a standout than his 5-2 M/L; never OTB (6:1-3-2) but just one win (in debut sprinting in mud) might be indication he lacks the will to win?
  3. #4 – Forever Bernardini (15-1): Might be a stretch using this maiden breaker when sprinting over Pid synthetic first time blinkers and overcoming “Gate Trouble” but have a feel for continued improvement for this Live Oak Plantation home-bred            

 

Race 6

  1. #2 – Salsamatic(4-1): Showed interest in debut when 3rdf for $40k MCL @ Del; jock/trainer combo has been winning at a 35% clip over the past year                   
  2. #1 – For the Proudnfree (15-1): Has only beaten one rival in each of his two starts but they were on the grass; switch to dirt and drop from MSW ranks to $25k MCL might be a winning move   
  3. #6 – Z Supreme (6-1): Owned by Zayat Stables and trained by R. Rodriguez was cold on the board (9-1) in career debut here two back… and rightfully so finishing 6th by 9; adds blinkers      

 

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Tizasong (5-2): Away since June when she broke through the gate pre-race which could explain 7th place finish when sent off 5-2 and/or reason for taking the Summer off then restart training in mid-Sept.      
  2. #3 – Masio (8-1): Showed early speed in all turf tries @ GP last year; drawing a line through first race since that time due to it being on dirt      
  3. #4 – Small Talk Aside (15-1): Certainly wasn’t ready to win debut when 68-1 sprinting on turf but this 7-yr-old… yes 7… got it going in deep stretch to think he’ll enjoy extra furlong; add Lasix      

 

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Koala Queen (6-1): Always gives her all and this 3-yr-old has been taking on her elders since the Spring so her maturity level helps now; never OTB when on Lrl turf (4: 2-1-1)     
  2. #6 – Ginger N Rye (8-5): Regardless of the record (13:3-5-0) she is never far behind the winner as she was just 3 behind the likes of Onus in last outing; definitely is the class of this field       
  3. #8 – Enchanted Party (15-1): Might be an A. Delacour cast-off from two years ago but first start since then looked promising when 24-1 for outfit that’s 0 for 32 this year; could get 1st win here  

 

Race 9

  1. #5 – Rumblin Kyle (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Has back class and seems to have just needed some class relief to get confidence back; connections keep this gelding in for the $5k tag while jock K. Gomez is obviously a good fit getting a victory and runner-up in only two mounts    
  2. #1 – Burning Mandate (6-1): Oldtimer still has the will to compete as he seeks 15th win; though 7f hasn’t been part of recent efforts, he can get it done (8:2-3-1)  
  3. #6 – Magna Warrior (5-1): Makes Lrl debut as he’s a transfer from the West Coast (SA to CT); first start for K. Magee who’s hoping addition of blinkers helps reverse fortunes   

 

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Struth (8-1): Makes first start on the grass but has been entered in the past for similar but scratched out for whatever reason; can follow in another local son of Curlin (Top of Mind) who has finished no worse than second in 4 turf outings, one was in a G2   
  2. #3 – Agonistic (10-1): Used to sprinting just 5f on turf @ Prx but has a nice stalking style while earning a career best 98 Brisnet# in state bred stakes three back; toss last, off the turf race           
  3. #9 – Grandiflora (9-2): Fits the definition of a “Plodder”; just 3 for 28 lifetime but always in the mix late when sprinting       

 

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – So Outspoken (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Three time winner qualifies for N2L as two of those wins came in steeplechase events; only has competed in a handful of flat races and was third on this course behind two next out winners v. same as today 
  2.  #8 – Whippo (4-1): Disappointed backers in last two when sent off as 5-2 PT fav. in both; 1 for 17 looks ugly but eventually will get that elusive second victory… maybe today
  3. #4 – Bay Bridge (6-1): Return to racing after 10 month layoff was a bust (12th by 8½) possibly due to breaking slow and being wide sprinting; stretch back out to two turns and could go gate-to-wire with alert start

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Saturday October 29th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 11 race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $6.20 (2nd race), $6.20 (3rd), $5.60 (4th), $5.00 (5th), $8.20 (7th), $4.60 (9th) and $4.40 (10th). Note: Year-to-date Top Selections are Top Selections are 251 for 959 (26.17%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (102: 29-21-14) Carauntoohil (4th race: 7-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) five deep leaving the backstretch, was five wide around the far turn, drifted way out in upper stretch and lost third while being eased late.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (98: 10-12-14) Nour Iayoun (1st race: 10-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) broke a step slow, edged up near the five eighths, angled out and came up empty to finish 7th.