The GQ Approach – Timonium August 26

by | Aug 26, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium for the seven (7) Live Racing Days during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 2-5). Post Time 1:05pm EDT. Analysis and Picks include a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play of the Day and multi-race wagers. 

GQ has finally returned from his Summer vacation, just in time to make his annual pilgrimage to Timonium, aka “The Big T”!

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 1 / #4 – Bad Boy Peter (2-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 5 / #1 – My Vet’s a Genius (15-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  4  w/ 1, 4, 7 ($6)
  • Race 3: 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 3 w/ 2, 3, 4 w/ 1, 5 ($9)
  • Race 6: 50 cent Pick-4  5, 6 w/ 1, 2, 4 w/ 5, 6, 7 w/ 6 ($9)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  5, 6, 7 w/ 5, 6 ($12)

 

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for dirt: 9
  • Weather: High of 93, just a slight chance of a late afternoon thunderstorm
  • Projected track conditions: Main track FAST; Turf is non-existent

 

Race 1

  1. #4 – Bad Boy Peter (2-1): *** BEST BET *** In taking a stand against 9-5 ML fav. #1, this “Bad Boy” has won 7 of his last 8 races traveling 4-4½f including his only try in the Tim bull ring and is owned by Robert L. Cole, Jr. (of Rapid Redux fame) who loves getting his picture taken with his horses… in the Winners Circle              
  2. #5 – Stourbridge Lion (10-1): Gets a boost having CT top jock J. Montano in the saddle; there’s plenty of speed in The Big T Lid-Lifter so that he could stalk and pounce late                 
  3. #3 – Blue Cherokee (9-2): Trainer W. Potts appears he’ll bring a plethora of sprinters to Tim as this new edition to his barn ships in from Finger Lakes (FL); is quick enough from the gate to threaten logic ones if they’re not on their “A” game   

 

Race 2

  1. #1 – Mail Order Groom (9-2): In the money in 5 of 6 outings going this distance; drops back to a class level where J. Toledo, who won Lrl Summer meet riding title, can save ground along the rail and get to the wire first          
  2. #4 – Ground Control (5-2): Is a threat to go gate-to-wire for trainer Rudy Rod who also has one in race 6; has never won races back-to-back; 3rd race after layoff          
  3. #7 – Fairy Cat (7-2): Likes to win (11 for 54) and this 7 y.o. is in top form w/ a win and two runner-up finishes in his last 3 outings; has won last two times when running at this level… albeit @ Pen 

 

Race 3

  1. #2 – Crazy About Him (6-1): A lot to like here as she’s only one in the field to have won more than 4 races; trainer J. Ness only entry on the card; she won her only start @ Tim (09/04/15); 3rd race after layoff; 8 wins from 12 starts at this distance            
  2. #1 – Mothernaturespell (5-2): Beaten favorite in most recent but has always been well backed (PT fav. last 4 out of 5 races); can boast best Brisnet Prime Power# in here                      
  3. #3 – Jeyran (8-1): Will need a very quick pace meltdown as this product of Azerbaijan always gives a solid effort but typically runs out of real estate going 4-4 ½f            

 

Race 4

  1. #3 – Next Street (4-1): Beaten favorite in latest try to earn her diploma… in the slop at Lrl, which she has proven not to be a fan; best two races from 6 career starts came in only two times on Fast track            
  2. #2 – Chips Icluded (4-1): Made a giant leap forward in second start, missing by a neck showing early speed after slow start in debut with just moderate interest late           
  3. #4 – Wild Cheers (8-5): Gets 1st Lasix for second start after leading from gate to just about a stride or two before the wire in debut @ Mth; bullet drill since that race makes him deserving favorite but Mth surface yields quicker fractions than better ones running at Lrl             

 

Race 5

  1. #1 – My Vet’s a Genius (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Just 1 for 23 lifetime; that lone win came here at this same distance two years ago; that day he beat Bodhisattva, who 9 months later won the Federico Tesio Stakes   
  2. #5 – Super Fund (4-5): The better of the two uncoupled G. Brooks runners? Well, he’s been the PT favorite in four of his past eight races… all losses.     
  3. #3 – Savage River (6-1): A head scratcher that jockey A. Serpa only riding option today is one mount at The Big T for G. Brooks, who he’s 2 for 2 with the past year? Hmmm.       

 

Race 6

  1. #5 – Thrist for Truth (7-2): Third career start for this Stay Thirsty filly who appears to be wanting more ground than 5½f; gets an additional furlong here w/ big chance to graduate                          
  2. #6 – Holiday Magician (5-2): FTS by Harlan’s Holiday has nice work pattern with last two bullets and best of all, final tune-up from the gate        
  3. #8 – Spicy Girl Red (8-1): Needs to run back to second career race figure (70 Brisnet); daughter of Point Given should enjoy stretched to two turns albeit in a bull ring            

 

Race 7

  1. #2 – Speightshill (9-5): In the money 7 of 10 career starts; has a case of “2nd-itis” since arriving at C. Lynch barn but faces a soft field of six maiden foes            
  2. #1 – Backseat Lover (8-1): 2nd time blinkers angle often yields huge payoffs; toss turf try and this R. Jenkins runner could wire’em
  3. #4 – Goodluckjohnathan (10-1): Nice SHOW effort in return to races after 10 month hiatus; early speed figure is strongest among this group        

 

Race 8

  1. #7 – Stone Crazy (6-1): Find it interesting that J.D. Acosta exits #6 to get a leg up on this S. Lake runner; will need pace help to get the job down closing in The Big T short stretch               
  2. #5 – Jumpin Frac Flash (3-1): Typical “Magic” Magee move which has rendered 27% winners; drops in 2nd race after claim after stepping up a few class levels right after claim                
  3. #6 – Retire Fifty Five (5-2): Only runner in this event not in for the Tag; beaten favorite in last outing @ Pen  

 

Race 9

  1. #6 – My Team (9-5): Trainer W. Potts looking to defend his Timonium training title should be off to a great start on Day One with this gelding primed to take the nightcap          
  2. #5 – It’s a Plane (12-1): Past three efforts have been fruitless on the Lrl grass v. much better sprinting; return to dirt and lower class level gives this gelding a shot                  
  3. #3 – Heavenly Haze (8-5): Finally beat winners in last try after burning bettors money in previous 7 of 9 when sent off as PT favorite; 10 lb. bug boy J. Journet back in irons            

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Going back to GQ’s last post, Sunday June 26th for Pimlico’s Closing Day had just 4 winners from the 8 race card (Top Selections payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $4.40 (1st race), $5.80 (2nd), $8.20 (3rd) and $12.40 (7th). Note: Year-to-date GQ’s Top Selections are 183 for 692 (26.45%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (76: 24-13-11) Citation Star (2nd race: 2-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) hugged the rail, disputed the pace to the stretch then gave way to finish 5th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (72: 7-9-11) Airlie’s Diamond (5th race: 6-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) bumped with LOCKUPTHEBOURBON soon after the start, stalked the pace around the turn, was taken to the three path in upper stretch and rallied outside horses to return $5.20 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.