The GQ Approach – Laurel August 19

by | Aug 19, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers. 

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: no carryover
  • Super High 5: $714.59
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 5 / #11 – Mr. Magician (3-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 8 / #6 – Slippery Slope (10-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 5
  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high of 88
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

Race 1: Maiden Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 7- Sweet Honesty (4/1): Ran a respectable fourth in her grass debut two starts back, earned a brisnet figure of 62 that could very well win this one, gets blinkers for the first time.
  2. 8- Not a Secret (7/2): Has shown a lot of early speed in routes before fading, cutting back to a sprint should help.
  3. 2- P T O’s Babe (2/1): Showed good form over the Tapeta as a two-year-old at Presque Isle Downs, has worked steadily since early June for her three-year-old bow, will be showing speed from the inside here.

Race 2: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs

  1. 1- Jill’s Reflection (3/1): Won two in a row for $4,000 at Charles Town and Penn National, hard-knocking mare will battle for the lead early on and never quits.
  2. 2- Little Kitten (3/1): Rated off the pace and dominated a n/w2L claiming field last out on opening day of summer meet, earned a career-best figure there and will hope to duplicate it here.
  3. 5- Nicki Flash (6/1): Hit the board in five of seven at Laurel lifetime, finished third at this level last out after setting the pace off the rail.

Race 3: Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 10- Marsden (4/1): Consistently goes in high-70s to low-80s, drops from $20,000 n/w3L level where he won by a nose last out, gets jockey upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
  2. 2- Lightning Electric (5/2): Won four races ago when coming from far behind, rallies have fallen short in last few but will make a lot of noise if kept close to the pace.
  3. 8- Pirates Cove (20/1): Ran a strong 84 two grass races ago at Pimlico, ran a 77 last out despite being sore, has worked since then so as long as he’s back in good shape she has a great shot.

Race 4: Claiming $10,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs

  1. 2- Flint Hill (8/1): Closed from seventeen lengths back off a slow pace to break her maiden for $10,000 last out at Pimlico, worked a bullet in three furlongs in 36 seconds back on August 3, the long stretch at Laurel should play to her closing style very well.
  2. 3- Street Miz (2/1): Earned field-best figure of 70 when third at Penn National most recently, has earned up to a 72 at Laurel.
  3. 9- Color Me Sexy (5/1): Ships from Charles Town, where she had shown good speed and run consistent mid-60s figures, will be interesting to see how she transitions from the bullring to the more sweeping Laurel track.

Race 5: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 11- Mr. Magician (3/1): Usually goes in the upper-70s to low-80s, which would almost certainly win this race easily, led briefly at this level three races ago before tiring to second, cutback to a sprint should help the cause.
  2. 5- Sultry Encounter (6/1): Has been hung wide in last two, but still earned a career-best 76 last out when outclassed, drop from starter level and post closer to rail will help.
  3. 8- Tricky Lion (20/1): Sports a less-than-impressive 1-for-21 career record, but his lone win did come at Laurel, and ran up to an 82 earlier in the year.

Race 6: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, 5 ½ Furlongs

  1. 10- The Wayne Factor (7/2): Jamie Ness is an excellent 24% with first-timers, and 26% with horses debuting in maiden claimers.
  2. 4- Kraken Glacken (8/1): Improved his figure by seventeen points last out when running third at this level behind a 2/5 favorite, no one of that caliber here so he should be in good shape.
  3. 3- Cheyne of Events (5/1): Is working well at Parx coming in here, and picks up McCarthy for career debut.

Race 7: Claiming $25,000 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 6- Mr. Stream (2/1): First or second in each of his last three and his figures tower over the rest.
  2. 5- Reach For Yield (4/1): Third last out when going 1 1/16 miles, retains the riding of Edgar Prado, who is 28% at the current meet.
  3. 10- Svindahl (7/2): Made a big six-wide rally last out to win last out back in April, figure of 83 in second-best among last-out figures and would be good enough should Mr. Stream not fire.

Race 8: Starter Optional Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 6- Slippery Slope (10/1): Battled gamely down the stretch last out and grudgingly lost by 1 ½ lengths, that was his first start of 2016, trainer Emanuel Geralis is 3-for-8 at the meet and is 23% with horses off a 46-90 day layoff.
  2. 9- Flaming Humor (5/1): Finally broke his maiden in his tenth try last out, has improved his figure in each of his last five races, peaking at a strong 80 last time out.
  3. 4- My Dinah Lee (12/1): Ran an 89 when breaking his maiden going gate-to-wire at Gulfstream Park in January , form has declined somewhat this meet with tougher trips but has still run competitive figures.