The GQ Approach – Laurel August 14

by | Aug 14, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers — but today, GQ himself is back in the irons!

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $20,495
  • Super High 5: $1,042
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 9 / #8 – Set for Six (7-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 6 / #6 – Penn Square (12-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1 $2 Double  1, 6, 7  w/ 7, 9, 11 ($18)
  • Race 3 $0.50 Pick-3  1, 7 w/ 3, 10, 11 w/ 3, 4, 6  ($9)
  • Race 6 $0.50 Pick-4 6, 7, 10  w/ 3, 4, 8 w/ 3, 4 w/ 8, 11 ($18)
  • Race 8 $2 Double  3, 4, 7 w/ 4, 8, 11 ($18)

 

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 5 (2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th and 9th)
  • Weather: Sunny, chance of late afternoon T’storms, high of 93
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

 

Race 1    HAPPY 61st BIRTHDAY to BRIAN!

  1. #7 – Enigma (7-2): First of three M. Nevin starters on the card has yet to hit the board in 3 dirt starts v. much better; showed no interest v. $20k beaten claimers going two-turns at Mth in last effort; J. Toledo jumps of #1 to ride          
  2. #1 – Sola Fide (5-2): This daughter of Drosselmeyer would do better going two-turns but this one mile distance will be longest race of her short career (7: 1-1-0); Led from gate to yards before the wire at this level last time when 7 lengths clear of Show runner                 
  3. #6 – Brockolini (8-5): Has run just 4 times on the dirt from 14 lifetime starts but lone win was result of one of them; owner willing to cut loses after claiming for $16k just two back while “Magic” Magee wins at 39% clip dropping 2 class levels and turf-to-dirt angle   

 

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Billy the Bull (2-1): Never has a problem getting the early lead, but has given it up late since coming back to Lrl and having to stretch that speed an extra furlong; the fact this 8 y.o. gelding won’t face any pressure early might give him the needed breather to hold off all foes       
  2. #11 – Thomas Hill (5-2): On the AE so needs just one defection; head scratcher as to why the big drop from $25k after a troubled 6th at The Spa just 3½ the winner; if scratched use #10 – Deer Dog (7-2)         
  3. #9 – I.E. Flash (9-2): Goes for natural Hat Trick, all at this level as H. Elamri seems to have found the back class in this 7 y.o.; will try to beat top pick here for first time in third try     

 

Race 3

  1. #7 – Fair Sally (9-2): Wanted turf in debut but got mud and stopped 5f when vying for the lead most of the way early; J. Salzman, Jr. looking to get second win of the meet on the drop; fired a bullet from gate on fast Lrl surface prior debut  
  2. #1 – No More Excuses (5-2): Led a field of $40k MCL into the stretch then spit out the bit in 7f affair; good sign that F. Lynch stays aboard for the cut back to 5½f        
  3. #4 – First to Fire (3-1): Owner/breeder CLF brass must need some expense money for the farm as they continue to drop this underachieving Friesan Fire filly; K. Francois needs to get her to the front and hope the track holds her speed to the wire          

 

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Colby Cakes (9-2): Ships in from NY for trainer C. Clement after third place finish in debut at Del when off 3-1; Still no Lasix and D. Centeno takes the call              
  2. #10 – Chubby Star (6-1): Sagamore Fram home bred by Malibu Moon out of a Giant’s Causeway mare has been steadily prepping for debut; outfit does well w/ FTS but 0 for 3 when debut on turf
  3. #11 – She’slikethewind (7-5): Makes second career start for M. Dickinson (25%) after showing late interest sprinting on Bel turf; bloodlines do not suggest a future racing on the turf, but that’s what this trainer specializes in; hard to like at these odds  

 

Race 5

  1. #3 – Luckbox Sam (2-1): Should be the speed of the speed coming down from Bel and dropping down two class levels, which trainer M. Nevin does well ( 29%)   
  2. #4 – Because He Can (5-2): Drops back down to $5k level where he dominated competition prior to being claimed by Magee for M. Moshe; never off-the-board at distance (3:2-0-1)     
  3. #6 – Diamond Warrior (15-1): Makes Lrl debut after 15 racing at CT; appears outclassed but has been part of Exacta in 5 of 7 going 7f; goes for natural Hat Trick today      

 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Penn Square (12-1): $$$ Longshot $$$ Was away for nearly a year when put in first time for tag ($25k) at Pim in June, on dirt and never picked up his hooves… similar to debut; returns to grass, drops again and retains H. Karamanos services in the saddle
  2. #7 – Not to Yield (3-1): Seeks first turf victory in eleventh try on the drop; F. Lynch takes over for the injured V. Carrasco; faces a field loaded with early lick, so we should hear from him late
  3. #10 – Et Toi (7-2): Private purchase from outfit on the west coast (D. O’Neill trainer) must have been for a bargain price as he’s been gelded and shows up here for $16k after breaking maiden on SA turf v. $75k MCL three back

 

Race 7

  1. #3 – Thirst for Truth (10-1): Freshmen sire Stay Thirsty has seen a number of his babies win at first or second asking; this one’s debut was on turf… not sure why (7th by 6) but switch to dirt and S. Russell in the irons gives him a big shot   
  2. #4 – Meal Ticket (5-2): Apprentice phenom A. Castrenze having a tough time getting to Lrl Winners Circle (1 for 35); this one has failed as less than 9-5 PT fav. in both career starts      
  3. #8 – Flaming Embers (12-1): First Dude FTS ships in from Prx for Marya Montoya (14%); like the worktab and fact this is F. Boyce’s only mount on the card   

 

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Dancing Lucy (3-1): Makes third start after a layoff and appears to be a converted sprinter just missing back-to-victories; beaten favorite by a head in latest; can make amends v. this group   
  2. #4 – Another Badge (5-2): Entered in fourth straight race for this condition while she’s been runner-up in past three, but just one came on the turf, losing it by a diminishing head going ½ furlong shorter      
  3. #7 – Sweet Soliloquy (15-1): Still looking for her to run the way she did on Dec. 12, 2014 here… on the dirt! 2 for 7 on dirt, 0 for 15 on turf… so she’s back in a turf race (sigh); in against weakest foes in her racing career  

 

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Set for Six (7-2): *** BEST BET *** One of two uncoupled starters for A. Delacour but this one is owned by his bread & butter client, Lael Stables; away nearly 10 months after 2 dirt sprints, this Exchange Rate filly gets 1st time Lasix and D. Centeno in irons who has won both mounts for this outfit this meet
  2. #11 – Seize the Ring (9-2): Near disastrous run in latest when stumbled in mid-pack entering the stretch, yet collected herself in a professional manner and managed to run on for 4th; that was first time going two-turns and after 7 month layoff         
  3. #4 – Vagabond (8-1): Debut was better than it looks on paper plus Shug McGaughey first-timers are rarely cranked up to win… typically they are in second outing on turf (32%); switch to HOF rider E. Prado helps seal the deal that PT 8-1 will be a pipe dream