The GQ Approach – Laurel August 12

by | Aug 12, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers. 

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $15,951.27
  • Super High 5: $397.87
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 6 / #6 – Hollywood Ice (9-5)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 7 / #6 – Yes I See (8-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 4
  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high of 94
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

Race 1: Claiming $5,000 (n/w4L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs

  1. 8- Pax Orbis (4/5): Makes his first start since February, and has been working steadily for the past month, won for $16,000 in his last dirt race at Gulfstream with a big figure, figures to stalk the pace and hopefully roll by.
  2. 1A- Habanero Gold (4/1): Hit the board in his last five races in Maryland and Pennsylvania with good figures, another one coming off a long layoff, making his first start in more than five months.
  3. 6- My Jersey Boy (5/1): Cuts back in distance from one mile, has run three figures in a row in the 80s when routing.

Race 2: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 3- Gin Fuzz (5/1): Has run two big races since returning from long layoff in April, trainer Hamilton Smith is 27% with horses dropping down to maiden claiming level, horse has never lost a maiden claimer before.
  2. 6- Bronze Bull (9/2): Finished second after tough trip last time against similar, has best last-out brisnet figure by two points.
  3. 1- Just Been Jammin’ (4/1): Has early speed and the inside post, both of which are very dangerous, held on well after leading almost the whole way around last out.

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs

  1. 1- Speightshill (3/1): Has a bit of a case of seconditis, with three seconds and three thirds from nine career tries, but has run strong figures in two races at this meet so far.
  2. 3- Djulpan (7/2): Was well-bet in debut at Delaware in May, but flattened to finish third, ran big early pace figures so should be on lead and improve second time out.
  3. 7- Best Yes (8/1): Trainer Lawrence Murray is 17% with first timers, has turned in a string of good workouts and could be an interesting firster at a price.

Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 5- Not Tonight Berta (6/1): Tim Keefe has been hitting at a dazzling 32% this meet, this one was third at this level against a wide-open field in her last grass outing, not a great field and her figures put her in a spot to upset at a price.
  2. 3- Sally’s News (8/1): Took them gate-to-wire in her grass debut last time out with a big figure, may have a tougher time getting to the lead with speed to her inside, but if she can get there, watch out.
  3. 1- Peppermint Stick (7/2): Broke her maiden in her first start of 2016 last out, while running a career-high figure by 23 points, should be the controlling speed from the inside.

Race 5: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs

  1. 3- Chips Icluded (7/2): Lost by a neck in her second start after a good stretch battle, drops into a field with mediocre first-timers and should continue her improvement.
  2. 1- Epic Parade (5/1): Turned in a good four-furlong workout a few days ago, worked well at three furlongs earlier in the year, can run well first out and may go overlooked in the betting.
  3. 6- Next Street (5/2): Has run above a 70 twice, something only one other horse in here has done, has not been able to win in five tries so far, but will run for an all-time low claiming price so may find the going easier here.

Race 6: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs

  1. 6- Hollywood Ice (9/5): Lost his last two by less than a length each, last two figures are 86 and 87, either of which would win this one easily.
  2. 7- Peppermint Prince (6/1): Has improved in each of his last three races since returning from the layoff, battled for the lead last out but held on for third, will hope for easier lead here.
  3. 4- Real Estate Rich (7/2): Rallied after slow start to lose by two lengths last out, ran figures in the 90s over the winter at Aqueduct, it remains to be seen if he can duplicate such form here.

Race 7: Claiming $15,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 6- Yes I See (8/1): Won against similar last out even after breaking through the gate before the start, ran a big figure of 82 against much better over this track last year.
  2. 2- Soup d’Coupe (5/1): Fell far behind last out but rallied to finish fourth, has run an 82 in each of his last three grass starts, a duplication of that may be good enough but will have to stay closer to the pace.
  3. 9- Smart Power (12/1): Ran a decent 79 in his second start off the layoff last out, his figures in the 80s last year would make him a contender, can be a contender at a great price.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs

  1. 3- Boheme de Lavi (3/1): Won at this level at Penn National last out going away, has been running steadily in the upper 80s, figures to rate off the leaders.
  2. 5- Everlasting Secret (9/2): Has either won or lost by less than a length in each of her four races, battled for the lead and lost by a half-length at this level last out, has never been worse than second in three races at Laurel.
  3. 6- Chilly Start (12/1): Takes a big jump in class, but her figures so far this year have been competitive, will be a look if anywhere near morning line.

Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 10- Elusive Joni (9/5): Raced wide throughout last out, lost by a half-length but ran career-best figure of 87, gets jockey upgrade to Trevor McCarthy.
  2. 9- Glad Your Back (8/1): Improved figure in each of last three races, broke her maiden in gate-to-wire style last out, has not raced since mid-June but has been working strongly for return to races.
  3. 8- Summer Frock (5/1): Ran a decent 82 last out but was a flat third, performances before that one were more inspiring, X-Man hopes to break out of slump with this one.