The GQ Approach – Laurel July 31

by | Jul 30, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.  Today, GQ sent in his picks from the tropics of the So. Jersey shore.

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,743
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 5 / #4 – Daily News (7-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 6 / #5 – Street Maven (12-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1 $2 Double:  6, 8, 9 w/ 3, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3 $0.50 Pick 3: 1, 9 w/ 1, 3, 5 w/ 1, 3, 4  ($9)
  • Race 6 $0.50 Pick 4: 4, 5, 11 w/ 3, 5 w/ 4, 5, 6 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($27)
  • Race 8 $2.00 Double:  4, 6 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($12)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 88
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: GOOD

Race 1 is ON THE TURF
1. #6 – Smart N Smokin (5-1): The Blinkers Off experiment ended after just 2 less than stellar efforts; F. Lynch back in saddle as well
2. #9 – Hug a Tree (5-2): Goes for the natural Hat Trick against foes this mare has beaten in the past
3. #8 – Sweet Sway (4-1): Got the better of #9 two back at this same level; will make presence known in deep stretch

Race 2
1. #7 – Came Up Rosie (3-1): Toss that turf try in last outing; trainer F. Campitelli scores at 20% clip switching from turf to dirt
2. #3 – Becky Kecki (5-1): Bit off more than she could chew in 1st race after claim off K. Magee which typically is tough when coming back at same level, which she returns to here
3. #5 – Stormy Mama (7-2): Returns to dirt after a few turf races v. better; tough to pick her on top at Lrl (0 for 17)

Race 3 is ON THE TURF
1. #1 – Guesswhatdayitis (8-1): Tough assignment from the rail; comes off a better than expected effort when 96-1 (5th just 3 behind winner)
2. #3 – Flame of My Heart (9-5): On paper fits as prohibitive M/L favorite but has already proven that 5½f is more than she cares to run
3. #9 – Fair Sally (10-1): Debut for $25k MCL was washed off the turf; takes a premature or realistic drop to $16k MCL, your decide

Race 4
1. #5 – Phathom Shot (8-1): MD-bred FTS by Kodiak Kowboy for trainer D. Barr who gets 24% Debut MCL to Winners Circle
2. #1 – Happy Mesa (4-1): Considered the lesser of the two “Ham” Smith starters; KY-bred FTS by Sky Mesa part owned by Dale Romans brother who owns a few good ones
3. #3 – Hailey’s Flip (9-2): Makes second career start for G. Capuano (26% w/ these types); showed willingness to run in debut

Race 5 is ON THE TURF
1. #4 – Daily News (7-2): *** BEST BET *** This 6f distance seems to be perfect as this geldings first two turf efforts going 5 and 5½f seemed to run out of real estate showing late interest
2. #1 – Mr. Magician (8-1): Traffic issues in last two as well as a re-claim by M. Trombetta; being in for the tag… and less than max. price ($30k v. $35k) is a concern
3. #3 – Tempt Me Twice (3-1): Going one mile last time should help with previous stamina issues; first time in for a tag in 9th career start

Race 6
1. #5 – Street Maven (12-1): $$$ Longshot $$$ Looks like lone speed in here; risky pick as he’s failed miserably as PT favorite in past two when taking a steep drop in class; getting early lead is key
2. #11 – Lightning Electric (7-2): Typical “Magic” Magee successful move 2nd race off claim… dropping back to claim level after two level jump in 1st race
3. #4 – East of Danzig (5-1): M. Eppler trainee been on the since last August; like the work tab tough

Race 7
1. #3 – Quartet (6-5): Hard to argue w/ Keith (M/L oddsmaker); just missed v. better N2L while continuing to improve those Brsnet#s
2. #5 – Favorite Niece (5-2): Apprentice phenom A. Castrenze having a tough time getting to Lrl Winners Circle (1 for 26); this one failed as 3-5 fav. very same @ Del
3. #2 – Lockupthebourbon (15-1): C. Frock turns back to T. Hole who got this filly to pass others in the stretch which would be a prudent way to ride w/ plenty of foes having early speed

Race 8 is ON THE TURF
1. #6 – Cavity (6-1): Fresh off maiden victory in 9th career start after plenty of runner-up efforts to next out winners
2. #4 – Not to Yield (8-1): Late rally wasn’t good enough at same level last time when making 3rd start after layoff; hoping for more improvement
3. #5 – Wolftrap (9-2): Continues to disappoint backers as he’s been sent off the favorite in 2 of past 3 starts at this level; 1 for 26 lifetime starts to indicate maybe he lacks the will to win

Race 9 is ON THE TURF
1. #7 – Tricky Lion (10-1): Compromised by traffic troubles in last outing; yeah he’s 1 for 20 but on the bright side he’s 1 for 4 at Lrl and lone win came at this surface and distance
2. #8 – Tightly Bridled (5-2): Never off-the-board at Lrl (4: 1-1-2) but just 1 for 15 lifetime while failing as PT favorite in 4 of past 7 starts
3. #1 – Herthum (3-1): POE which #1A is on AE; breaks from rail but has no early speed; H. Karamanos needs to give a smart ride to get to wire first