The GQ Approach – Laurel July 23

by | Jul 23, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.  

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,519.47
  • Late Pick 5: $3,783.57

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 7 / #1 – One Lucky Step (7-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 9/ #12 – Amain (6-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • Race 6 $2 Double: 2, 5 w/ 1, 6 ($8.00)
    • Race 7 $0.50 Pick 3: 1, 6 w/ 4, 6, 11 w/ 7, 12, 14

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6
  • Weather: Mostly sunny, hot
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

RACE 1

  1. #9 Live in Joy (9-2) – Only career turf sprint came back in career debut – in 2010! – and that was a winner; drops down and gets Cintron in the irons. Trainer-jock combo 4-for-10 with positive ROI
  2. #2 Make My Saturday (9-5) – Tough to take 9-5 on a horse with no proven inclination to win races, but those last two are decent efforts in good company; two-back winner has won five straight, and last out winner repeated
  3. #8 Oration (20-1) – A shot in the dark, true, but this horse’s turf sprints would generally compete with this group – even if he hasn’t made one since 3/20/15

RACE 2

  1. #5 No More Excuses (8-5) – Credible effort last out after a difficult trip; showing an interim bullet work, fastest of 65 a week ago; all systems go
  2. #2 Peppermint Stick (5-1) – Showed speed before tiring last out (though that was last October); figures to be on the engine again here
  3. #6 Skiing in Russia (5-1) – Loomed a threat after a wide trip before tiring on debut; first Lasix

RACE 3

  1. #1 Hurricane Harold (3-1) – That was a good enough debut after breaking a step slow and wide throughout while chasing a 7-10 winner; trainer G. Capuano 9-for-32 with second start maiden special runners
  2. #2 Futile (5-2) – Can’t abide chalk with debut runners, but otherwise, there’s plenty to like here; trainer Delacour hits with 21% of firsters, two full sibs are winners, and note bullet work two back
  3. #4 Azorean Connection (6-1) – Keefe barn has been clicking of late, and this runner’s showing a couple of sharp works in advance of career debut

 

RACE 4

  1. #7 Shan Dian Kia (9-2) – Sophomore has won three straight and looks to have a chance for another stalk-and-pounce trip here; regular pilot’s at PRX for stakes mounts, but Centeno has gaudy 32% strike rate aboard Ness horses
  2. #3 Kremlln (5-2) – Pinched back at the start and all dressed up with no place to go late, that was a tough trip in first try in Keefe barn; closing sort will look to stay out of trouble, make one run under T. Hole
  3. #1 Bridge of Luck (9-2) – Formful D. Capuano runner has been first or second three straight and continues to move up the ladder; while never could put away rival in dead-heat win last out, like that both put some space between themselves and the rest; has exchanged wins with top choice in here

 

RACE 5

  1. #4 Hannays (6-1) – Unexpected spot for a Tevis McCauley debut runner to appear – he’s run just two horses here in the last 5 years; two full sibs won sprinting on grass, and this one show some sharp works; plus this is a middling group at best
  2. #3 No Knock Raid (9-2) – Might have been best in two back turf sprint when beaten a half-length after a tough trip; gets Karamanos aboard
  3. #7 Bird Call (12-1) – Debut fifth in similar spot better than it looks: four rivals won next out; dialing back to sprint distance will help, and gets blinks added to goose him a little closer to the pace

 

RACE 6

  1. #5 To Blave (9-5) – Capt. Obvious says… runner just missed against better in only 7f try, and added ground from last dirt try a positive; trainer Rubley scored twice on Friday
  2. #2 Speightshill (3-1) – No match for promising Keefe runner in last but trainer Lynch 11 for 43 on drop down to MCL; may be in front early
  3. #6 Catcher (5-2) – Motion trainee rallied well enough on debut and gets Lasix for first time today

 

RACE 7

  1. #1 One Lucky Step (7-2) – Big effort in only prior turf sprint, whipping around ‘em all five wide for a comfy score; shows three sharp works since last out win 6/6; ability to win with any style an asset
  2. #6 Chief Exchanger (3-1) – Good efforts chasing talented runners Pool Winner, Triple Burner last two turf sprints; trainer Magee 25% first off the claim
  3. #3 Two Notch Road (3-1) – Veteran just shy of $400k in the bank; two from last-out stakes win won next races; reunites with Pimentel

 

RACE 8

  1. #6 Secret or Not (5-1) – Good try in Nellie Mae Cox S. after a slightly troubled trip, finishing up with good energy; winner repeated in $100k stake; expecting runner to track early speed types
  2. #11 Striking Style (4-1) – Just missed last out in a brave try at Delaware when well clear of show horse; three-back second came to a horse G3-placed in next
  3. #4 Vicky Ticky Tavie (8-1) – Ham Smith trainee’s been third last two vs. similar; plenty of early speed in here should aid closing style

 

RACE 9

  1. #12 Amain (6-1) – Gonzalez trainee has won two of three, which in this group is saying something; tactical ability and desire to win helpful
  2. #14 Flavor (8-1) – Carrasco lands here; rallied to be fifth in a plus group that’s produced two next out winners and two others ITM from five to run back
  3. #7 Freud’s Vale (7-2) – D. Capuano trainee thrashed lesser two back; though more often closes, does best work close to the pace; rider Ortiz on board for eighth straight time