The GQ Approach – Laurel July 16

by | Jul 16, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.  

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,648.91
  • Super High 5: $707.41
  • Late Pick 5: $13,977.22

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 7 / #3 – Mrs. Brenner (7-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 8/ #3– Mr. Benz (10-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • Race 7 $0.50 Pick 3 — 2, 3, 10 w/ 3, 9 w/ 4, 6, 7 ($9.00)
    • Race 5 $2 Double — 1, 4, 9 w/ 5, 9, 11 ($18.00)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, hot
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

RACE 1

  1. #4 Pauline’s Pride (4-1) – In a confusing puzzle of a race, this runner has won a first allowance – usually a prerequisite to score here – and owns two recent wins over #5
  2. #1 Peace Prize (7-2) – The very definition of class relief: runner drops from back-to-back G3 tries to lifetime claimer; two efforts prior to Dick Memorial probably win here, and three back fourth-place finisher subsequently set PEN course record
  3. #6 That’s My Bai (5-1) – “Least raced” usually a positive angle in lifetime events, and this one has won two straight with ease

 

RACE 2

  1. #6 Daily News (6-5) – Voss trainee has kept the right sort of company, and from her last dirt try, the winner repeated in a PA-bred stake; figs say he’s the winner, and others here don’t make a strong enough case against
  2. #7 Resurgence (3-1) – Corrales 29% with a positive ROI second after a layoff going route to sprint, and everything else about this horse puts him in the mix
  3. #5 Time for Quality (12-1) – Ben Perkins trainee crushed $25,000 maidens in first dirt try, and that race has produced three next out winners

RACE 3

  1. #8 Wednesdays Only (4-1) – Warrior’s Reward filly should appreciate chance to sprint twice in a row, and her earlier sprinting efforts – including just three behind now-stake winner Hidden Treat – put her in the mix here
  2. #6 Kitty’s Right (9-5) – Runner’s had some trip issues in her last two on turf but should benefit from the addition of Carrasco in the irons and a half-furlong at the end of the race
  3. #2 Active Runner (6-1) – The drop from maiden special at SA to MC 40k isn’t a positive, but this one ran well enough for a half last out, has trained well enough here, and the Abbott-Boyce combo has done well enough that this daughter of multiple graded winner Interactif is worth a look

 

RACE 4

  1. #4 Harbor Breeze (5-2) – Tactical enough to lead or stalk, runner won at the level earlier this year; Magee brings in Penn jock Edwin Gonzalez, and the combo is five-for-seven
  2. #3 Bob’s My Uncle (20-1) – Up close early, dropped to last, rallied to hit the board last; tough task here, but I’m intrigued by that last try; gets blinks here
  3. #2 Golden Rings (2-1) – Dove Houghton trainee loves Laurel, loves the distance, and might be ready to deliver a big one here

RACE 5

  1. #9 Annies Revenge (9-2) – Versatile sort has crossed the wire first in both turf tries, though DQed in first; added ground shouldn’t be an issue, and think better efforts may still be available
  2. #1 Perigee Moon Slide (6-1) – Miles the best when winning under a hand ride after being steadied in last, though that wasn’t much of a group; then again, neither is this one
  3. #4 Avellaneous (6-1) – Even effort last out in ambitious spot; Karamanos comes aboard

 

RACE 6

  1. #5 Annawon (4-1) – Veteran closed fastest of all in a slow early-fast late race to be up in time last out and has been right on the money in two tries against similar this year; two prior to last were good heats of tougher conditions
  2. #11 Half Strike (5-1) – Has a first and a third in last two turf tries at this level; last out he ranged up mid-course with plenty of run but no place to go – once he found a seam it was too late; neither trainer Delozier nor rider Francois have won all that much in ’16 – but they have a sterling 20% strike rate at a huge profit when teaming up
  3. #9 Therestishistory (15-1) – Probably a fishing expedition here – but this runner competed at this level late last season, two back try was respectable, and interested to see rider Pimentel join the team; trainer Geralis has had some success on drop-downs
  4. And one note… #13 Lightning Electric (7-2) is worth a long look if he draws in; love that trainer Magee liked this one enough to run against better first off the claim, now puts him back at level where he won three back

 

RACE 7

  1. #3 Mrs. Brenner (7-2) – Juarez trainee feels like she’s on the verge of a step forward: in last two, she showed speed but couldn’t quite hold on in first, fell well off the pace and then rallied smartly in the second; just a length and change behind Little Kitten last, and that runner crushed similar in her next try
  2. #10 Sweet Peaches (10-1) – Let’s pretend that last one never happened, shall we? Parx try was a trainwreck, but this runner’s other form competes here; with just seven starts to her name, she can still improve, and F. Lynch hops aboard a runner who has some early lick from the outside stall
  3. #2 Time to Spare (4-1) – Trainer Albert and rider Ortiz have a huge positive ROI when teaming up; this one steadied slightly in last when 30-1 longshot came over on him and had to go three wide while winner slipped through on rail; second off layoff for a runner who fits

RACE 8

  1. #3 Mr. Benz (10-1) – Absolutely love this runner’s last effort, closing sharply and finishing full of run on a day when the turf played to speed; trainer Jenkins 3-for-5 bringing horses back on short rest last five years
  2. #9 Highly Prized (9-2) – Just missed against similar two back, when Saville trainee was the only runner in the early vanguard who was around late; nothing wrong with last – winner has been G3- and G1-placed in two subsequent tries; first Lasix and blinks come off
  3. #1 Soluble (2-1) – While acknowledging this guy’s been running credibly against better, not inclined to take short odds on a runner who’s never run this short – shortest career race was 1 3/16 miles, and you have to wonder if this might be less than he wants

RACE 9

  1. #6 Chattolanee (5-1) – This is an absolute puzzle of a race, but this runner’s first try around two turns showed promise as she was up on a fast pace and stuck with it to the end; second two-turn try might be the answer, and Carrasco jumps on
  2. #4 Moonshine Mistress (6-1) – Perfectly credible try last out on stretch-out from five furlongs to nine; dialing back a touch here may help; last time she ran two consecutive routes, second was a big improvement, so…
  3. #7 My City (6-1) – Closed willingly on debut going 5/8, and breeding says the added ground’s a positive; nice interim work