The GQ Approach – Laurel July 15

by | Jul 15, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.  Today, John Piassek takes the reins.

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,228.57
  • Super High 5: $1,389.94
  • Late Pick 5: $5,071.08

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 7 / #11 – Heavenly Haze (2-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 3/ #8 – I.E. Flash (8-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • John’s more of a win bet guy.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6
  • Weather: Mostly sunny, hot
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

Race 1: Starter Allowance $7,500, 3yo and up, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 1- Billy the Bull (8-5): Has won three in a row on grass with blazing early speed and dominant speed figures, won at this distance in April after getting in speed duel.
  2. 5- Alfredo Romana (6-1): Chased Billy the Bull last time out in 2016 grass debut, was four lengths clear of third-place finisher, figures to stalk pace once again.
  3. 7- Oak Bluffs (6-1): Finished third when stretching out to a mile last out, gets cutback in distance to 5 ½ furlongs, a distance that he won a stakes at last year.

Race 2: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, 5 Furlongs

  1. 7- Cool Arrow (1-2): Takes big drop in class here after two losses against maidens at Churchill, went off at 4/5 last out and was fourth, will have them at his mercy if he runs his race.
  2. 2- The Great Ronaldo (6-1): Lost by a half-length last out after running greenly, makes his first start as a gelding.
  3. 5- Kraken Glacken (15-1): Was well-bet in debut before finishing a non-threatening fifth, has been working well since then and will seek to rebound here.

Race 3: Claiming $7,500, 3yo and up, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 8- I.E. Flash (8-1): Won at this level last out at Pimlico after being fanned wide on the turn, bigger turns here at Laurel should suit his closing style better.
  2. 4- Thorny (8-1): Eleven-year-old veteran has been second, third, or fourth in each of his last seven races, has run races good enough to win here and is always dependable to pick up a check.
  3. 5- Swig It (12-1): Finished behind a few of these last out after running wide, ran a big race two back behind Benny the Bull, hopes to save more ground here.

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 2yo, Fillies, 5 Furlongs

  1. 7- Chips Icluded (10-1): Dropped way out of it in debut before rallying to be sixth, lost by almost seven lengths but was as far back as seventeen lengths at one point, will hope to be closer to the pace today, extra ½ furlong should help.
  2. 1- Preciate It (9-2): Finished third at 34/1 last out at this level, has best last-out figure and looks to get even better third time out.
  3. 9- Clairvoyant Lady (5-2): Ships in from Parx and drops down to maiden claiming company, was on fast pace last out and will hope to avoid a duel here.

Race 5: Claiming $16,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 9- My Tootsy (5-1): Was a fast-closing second at this level last out, was third two races back after getting into some traffic trouble, best race is good enough to win it.
  2. 4- Mucho Blessings (12-1): A bit flat last out but still ran a strong figure, will have to sustain a rally to win this one.
  3. 12- Chanel Number One (4-1): Ran career-best race first off the layoff last out, broke maiden going this distance while racing wide at Laurel last fall.

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 7- Dixie Spirit (9-2): This $130,000 yearling purchase just missed in her first race off an eight-month layoff last out, crossed the wire first in her grass debut last fall at Parx but was disqualified.
  2. 3- Lake Turkana (5-1): Consistently runs in mid-to-high 70s on brisnet scale, today’s distance will be the farthest she’s ever gone.
  3. 2- Anissa (8-1): Has been working well for her first race since early June, figures are similar to Lake Turkana’s, jockey Edgar Prado has been perfect with three mounts in the first six days of racing.

Race 7: Claiming $5,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs

  1. 11- Heavenly Haze (2-1): Takes big class drop from starter optional claiming level, figures absolutely lay over these, would be appropriate for a Cal-bred to win on Del Mar opening day.
  2. 6- Split: Led almost all the way around in his last race at Laurel before tiring to finish third, will hope to get to the front early on.
  3. 7- Jumpin Julian (6-1): Has come from far out of it to just miss in his last two, those two races are among the very best he’s ever run as far as figures go.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming (n/w2x), 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)

  1. 6- Made in Detroit (5-2): Almost wired them in his first start of 2016 last out at Belmont, flattened to finish a close third, gets some class relief and looks to be the controlling speed.
  2. 7- Bank Float (3-1): Has been second or third in each of his last four races, wove his way through traffic to get up against starter allowance foes last out, will be first to pick up pieces should Made in Detroit tire out.
  3. 9- Athelstane (20-1): Drops for n/w3x level and runs here for a $28,000 tag, ran competitive figures while being well-beaten at that level, may find it easier here.

Race 9: Maiden Claiming $16,000, 3yo and up, 5 ½ Furlongs (Grass)

  1. 11- Thunders Fury (10-1): Lost by a neck in his first start of 2016 last out, that was his first career start at a grass sprint, may find them to be his forte.
  2. 6- Tigers Bop (7-2): First two figures would dominate these, but has not raced since July and has had only three workouts this year, tread lightly.
  3. 8- Boss Magician (4-1): Gets blinkers for the first time and takes a drop down from state-bred maidens, figures to sit just off the pace here.