The GQ Approach – Laurel July 10

by | Jul 10, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6: $647.65

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 5 / #10 – Britt’s Fortune (5-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 6/ #3 – Jeezum Jim (6-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • Race 5: $2.00 Double: 9, 10 w/ 3, 6, 9 ($12)
    • Race 6: $0.50 Pick 3:  3, 6, 9 w/ 1, 2 w/ 2, 3, 4, 7 ($12.00)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6
  • Weather: Mostly sunny
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

RACE 1

  1. #8 Justcallme K L (2-1) – Not a strong endorsement, but Woolley trainee is the only runner here with a demonstrated ability to pass a horse in the lane, figures to get a lively pace to run at; two from his last were beaten yesterday in MC 25k, so not a bad decision to drop another step
  2. #2 Colmont Fire (6-1) – After nine tries against special weight company, R. Graham ready to cut bait, drops this one three steps; return to the turf, where he had a credible debut against subsequently stakes-placed Easy River
  3. #3 Tricky Citizen (5-2) – Nevin trainee tries the weeds for the first time; no grass starts for his sibs; Nevin sports a 38% strike rate at Laurel, 65% in the money

RACE 2

  1. #1 Big House (3-1) – Chased the speed while three wide last out, when closers came and got ‘em; fourth-place finisher from that affair turned tables on the runner-up in next and K. Gomez, who’s won three with this gelding, climbs back aboard
  2. #2 Fitzfarris (5-2) – Versatile sort was no match for odds-on winner last out but stuck with it to the end; there’s more upside here
  3. #3 Gursky (8-5) – Gotta respect this runner as a prime contender here, but I’m not inclined to take 8-5 on one who’s been defeated in this company six times

RACE 3

  1. #3 Lovely Notion (8-1) – Look for this Great Notion gelding to be on the lead early and hope to remain there late; nothing wrong with game try last out at Delaware, and three back effort – when run down late by Shinobi, who’s won three straight – would win this heat
  2. #9 Pro Daddy (4-1) – Man, that was a good effort last out after a disastrous trip; a repeat of that sort of effort might get it done here; note that, though he’s never been out of the money on the lawn, he’s never won on it, either
  3. #2 Ride for a Cure (20-1) – Was debut a public workout? Trainer D. Capuano’s had good success going sprint to route for second-start maidens on short layoffs

RACE 4

  1. #4 Archer Queen (6-1) – Aggressive move on the drop here by trainer H. McMahon; switches to F. Lynch in the irons; runner beat better three back
  2. #2 Heavenly Perfect (7-2) – First or second three straight against similar
  3. #10 Star Black (12-1) – Has kept better company than this; winner of last repeated in allowance company yesterday

RACE 5

  1. ***BEST BET*** #10 Britt’s Fortune (5-2) – American Lion filly looks to be the controlling speed here and gets seven-pound bug girl Castrenze up; two rivals she beat last out returned to win
  2. #9 Bullet Thief (10-1) – Improved effort last out when second to Hideaway (who’d won the race but was DQed previously) at odds of 40-1
  3. 1a Start Winning (8-1) – Rallied willingly for fourth against better on debut, drops to appropriate level here

 

RACE 6

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY*** #3 Jeezum Jim (6-1) – Nothing wrong with the work of this stakes-placed Fairbanks colt to date, and for his first of ’16 he’ll try lawn for the first time; half-sister Illuminant is a G1 winner on the weeds
  2. #9 Red Hot Warrior (5-2) – Big effort in ’16 debut when second a neck to Puturseatbelton; War Front colt can move forward here and looks to sit a stalking trip
  3. #6 Miners Quest (12-1) – Wolfendale runner gets back to the lawn where he rallied smartly while in hand to be third three back; that race produced three next out winners, including stakes winner Take Cover

 

RACE 7

  1. #1 Souperfast (6-1) – Useful return to the races last out after a three-month freshening, and he’s been gelded; figures to sit a stalking trip under Carrasco
  2. #2 Chiropractor (3-1) – G1 winner may simply be too good for these, but the bet here is he may be an inch short in seasonal debut, with much bigger fish to fry down the road; good sign that hot-riding Pedroza comes in for this
  3. #6 Call Wil (12-1) – Big class test here for a runner who’s won three straight, four of five; seven of eight beaten rivals from his last were in the money in their next start; gets Prado in the irons

RACE 8

  1. #2 Noteworthy Peach (9-2) – Capuano trainee loves this one-turn mile trip – four for five with a second – and has been training forwardly for this
  2. #3 Mr Palmer (6-5) – I don’t much like Mr Palmer, and I don’t like 6-5 at all, but I can’t come up with a good reason to leave a horse who’s been ITM eight of nine out of the mix
  3. #4 Savvy Street (8-1) – Useful return to action for D. Barr trainee when fourth last out at Monmouth at too-short distance; winner Delta Bluesman repeated in G2 company; owns a stakes win over the strip

RACE 9

  1. #1 Jakesoutcaster (6-1) – Lone turf sprint was a decent fourth against similar; Karamanos gets aboard for the first time
  2. #3 Unfuhrling (20-1) – Showed zip on debut – but that was on dirt; runner-up broke his maiden next out; this one’s dam earned $120k on the lawn
  3. #10 Rebellious Warrior (8-1) – Not sure how great that field of Va-breds was, but then again, not sure how great this group is, either; held on willingly enough in last after hustling to the lead