The GQ Approach – Laurel July 9

by | Jul 9, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.

CARRYOVERS

  • Super High 5: $3,391.66

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 7 / #3 – Pagan Power (2-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 8/ #5 – Eleusis (12-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • Race 5: $2.00 Double: 1, 6 w/ 3, 4, 8 ($12)
    • Race 6: $0.50 Pick 4:  3, 4, 8 w/ 3 w/ 1, 5, 8, 10 w/ 5, 6 ($12)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 5
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, hot
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

RACE 1

  1. #4 Tapinbirdie (4-1) – Breeding says she wants the main track; note the work between last race, 20 days ago, and today
  2. #3 Ivy Pepper (8-5) – Terranova filly drops in half, attracts F. Lynch in the irons
  3. #7 Crookit (3-1) – Back-to-back seconds a good sign; wandered about a little bit in the lane on her left lead last out; last-place finisher from last broke her maiden at the bottom at CT next out

RACE 2

  1. #7 Super Cassie Girl (2-1) – Chance to run consecutive one-turn races should yield improved effort here
  2. #6 Convoyarie (6-1) – Won nicely with a good trip in last, sitting off a pace duel, and figures to get a good stalking spot here; interesting that rider Gomez jumps ship, and this runner would be easier to endorse if this were an N3L, which she’s still eligible for
  3. #4 Little Miss Lupe (9-5) – Odds too short on a runner thrashed by similar – and beaten by #7 – in last; picks up rider from #6, and blinks back on

RACE 3

  1. #5 Bioterp (4-1) – Capuano trainee caught the perfect trip last out when the leader whiffed the turn, but that was a good effort, and an N1X win is a typical prereq for this condition
  2. #3 Barrel Roll (5-1) – Would have preferred to see this one in ALW N1X company; still, two straight wins in impressive fashion say she’s a snug fit with this group
  3. #6 Awake the Day (4-1) – Might have been best last out when second a half-length; only yellow light here is dubious one-for-12 record sprinting on the turf

RACE 4

  1. #1 Whiskey Sour (7-2) – Mail Order Groom was looking like a category killer headed into last – 2-5 there – and this runner gave him all he wanted with a sterling late rally; switches into a high percentage barn
  2. #7 Ground Control (6-5) – The warning flags are flying, and I sure wouldn’t claim this horse – but a runner who thrashed $10k claimers two back has to beat beaten nickel runners here… right?
  3. #5 Drop to Pop (4-1) – A little rank when crowded entering the backstretch in last, this one’s run well enough to compete here; interesting to see PEN jockey make the journey down

RACE 5

  1. #1 Whatifiwaswilling (9-2) – Gorham-Carrasco combo has made bettors happy in 2015-16 ($3.19 ROI); return to two back effort, when she was probably best, could be good enough
  2. #6 Champagne Time (7-2) – Hasn’t seen the lawn since good 3rd in March at Gulfstream; finished ahead of Zippity Gal that day, and that runner has won two straight since coming to Maryland
  3. #4 Snuck a Little Fun (4-1) – Drops a step in first try for Lynch barn; winner of last repeated in allowance company

 

RACE 6

  1. #8 Herthum (9-2) – Nothing wrong with Bailes trainee’s work to date; 3 next-out winners from 4/29 try, with Take Cover repeating in PA Gov Cup over Ben’s Cat; drop to appropriate level should net a win here
  2. #3 Cue (8-1) – Great Notion gelding has chased the right rivals, among them multi-allowance winners Pool Winner, Triple Burner; was very uncomfortable stuck in behind last out and barged his way outside before running on well enough; blinks go on
  3. #4 Boston Strong (4-1) – When Terranova drops ‘em like this – 50% or more – they win – six of 10 in the last few years

 

RACE 7

  1. ***BEST BET*** #3 Pagan Power (2-1) – Big effort last out after near face-plant leaving the gate, rallying into contention, then steadying off heels of the winner late; repeat of that, minus the adventures, means a win here
  2. #6 Louis the Great (8-1) – Like to see F. Lynch remain aboard a runner who gave a good accounting of himself two back and stuck with it to the late stages last out; shorter trip here may not hurt
  3. #5 Loose Money (9-5) – Honestly, at 9-5 I don’t like this horse even a little bit; fire sale in progress on a runner who four back threw in the towel after leading and that day’s show horse recently beat 14 lengths by similar to these; but the figs say leave him in

RACE 8

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY*** #5 Eleusis (12-1) – Yes, the last couple are pretty disastrous, but note that runner’s only win came at 6 furlongs
  2. #10 Summer Frock (4-1) – Nothing wrong with recent efforts for this Bop filly, including a win last out and a not-bad fifth in the Stormy Blues; X-man in the irons gets to eyeball other speed sorts and decide where to go
  3. #8 Town Tart (5-1) – Carrasco’s staying aboard a good sign after messy last effort; winner debuted on the lawn, running a good second behind a horse who’s now a G3 winner (on dirt)

RACE 9

  1. #6 Takethattothebank (4-1) – Secor trainee made a big premature middle move to the lead before emptying out in a race that’s produced three next out winners; blinks back on, and a return to three-back effort gets it done here
  2. #5 Nick’s Luck (4-1) – Steadied at the 3/16, which might have cost him one of the big slices of the purse in last
  3. #4 Brother Slick Nick (9-2) – Finished up well enough in last after bumping foe at head of the lane; winner there now has 3-race win streak