The GQ Approach – Laurel July 4

by | Jul 4, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6 (20-cent base): $14,099.00

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 4 / #2 – All Fired Up (2-1)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 2/ #6 – Swellelegent (8-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • Race 4: $0.50 Pick 3: 2 w/ 1, 9 w/ 2, 6, 10 ($3)
    • Race 9: $2 Double:  2, 5, 7 w/ 2, 3, 9 ($18)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 6
  • Weather: Rain, followed by rain
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST early, probably downgraded to SLOPPY later
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM early, getting down to YIELDING or OFF later
  • Given the weather and surface situation, probably best to take these picks with a (or several) grain(s) of salt

RACE 1

  1. #4 Becky Kecki (5-1) – All systems look to be go: F. Lynch stays aboard a runner worse than third just once in 10 starts; 3yo owns three wins, is 2-for-2 at the distance, has an off-track win, and might be speediest
  2. #3 Tiz Alarming (8-1) – First off the claim runner is out of jail, but Eppler sees fit to raise to $10k level anyway; finished behind top choice last out, and that race produced 2 next-out winners, 6 that finished ITM
  3. #2 First Dance (6-1) – Fifth-place finisher from easy victory last out won next time; another with three career wins

RACE 2

  1. ***LONGSHOT PLAY*** #6 Swellelegent (8-1) – Tough trip last out when a game third; top two there won their next outing, including second-level allowance win by Top of Mind
  2. #3 Cort’n Asong (7-2) – Trainer A. Delacour 5-for-14 bringing horses off 300+ day layoffs
  3. #2 Just Jack (5-2) – Big effort in state-bred allowance score after losing position in first 1/16th; sibs, including multiple stakes winner Talk Show Man, did best work going a route of ground, which this one tries for the first time

 

RACE 3

  1. #10 Kitty Fredo (6-1) – That was a heavy lift, asking runner to go 9 furlongs in first try in more than a year; ran credibly, dueling for the lead in a fast pace, taking over, and leading into the stretch before emptying out late; should be fitter today
  2. #1 Ruston Vow (6-1) Can’t say we love that last, when this runner made no headway despite a fast pace to run at, but with just four starts to date, L. Gaudet runner still has plenty of upside
  3. #7 Sakara (7-2) – Bad break and slow start didn’t help last out; Rudy Rod puts 7-pound bug girl aboard, possibly aiming to be closer to the pace; return to better efforts puts him right there

RACE 4

  1. ***BEST BET*** #2 All Fired Up (2-1) – Keefe barn’s been winning, and this runner closed smartly once clear after a rugged trip on debut; added furlong won’t hurt, and Friesan Fire gelding shows a bullet work since last
  2. #5 Forest Ranger (8-1) – Runner was well backed when fifth on debut at Delaware after showing early speed; trainer G. Capuano wins with 27% of second starters, ITM 60% of the time
  3. #6 Speightshill (5-2) – Blinks go on this 5yo whose flashes of talent are offset by frequent time on the bench

RACE 5

  1. #1 Legendary King (7-2) – Won nicely despite failure to change leads last out, and prior a good effort chasing the top two local runners at this level; 8yo seeks 11th victory
  2. #9 Young Dude (8-1) – Beat a neck by formful Cruise More two back; loomed a threat when entering the lane in hand last but never found a place to go; cleaner trip puts him in the mix
  3. #2 Outofthedepths (6-1) – Emptied out when wide in last, but nothing wrong with two back try when second to next out distaff stake winner Debbie’s Tude

RACE 6

  1. #6 Another Badge (4-1) – Good try last out when near-miss second against a runner whose prior had been in stakes company; T. McCarthy remains aboard
  2. #2 Pop of Color (10-1) – Trainer H. McMahon does good work with turf sprinters, and this one fit well with similar last season
  3. #10 Little Stella (10-1) – Two straight wins for E. Merryman trainee, one of them over the strip; dominant in last

RACE 7

  1. #4 Slick William (4-1) – Grinder has done his best work on the main track, but hasn’t run on it since April ’15 when making second straight stakes start
  2. #2 Holiday Mousse (5-1) – Stuck with it while wide last out, and with just six career starts, still has some upside
  3. #7 Super Fund (3-1) – Speedster’s been in good recent form; only wish he hadn’t coughed up late leads in last two; win was at this distance

RACE 8

  1. #8 Chateau de Vizille (4-1) – Two of his beaten rivals from last broke their maidens in special weight company next out
  2. #7 Not to Yield (12-1) – Has kept better company than this and gets major equipment change
  3. #6 Bridge of Luck (3-1) – Probably deserved a better fate against similar last out when beaten a nose after lacking room; cleaner trip gets the money

RACE 9

  1. #2 Aimed (4-1) – Stretch out to two turns and ditching blinks did the trick for A. Goldberg trainee; runner-up scored next out; Trappe Shot colt showing two works since winning
  2. #5 Condo King (5-1) – Draw a line through the last, and this guy would be favored here; well meant colt tried stakes company three times, near-miss third in the Gold Fever; trainer’s go-to local rider, V. Carrasco gets on
  3. #7 Brute Force (6-1) – Last wasn’t pretty, but Sagamore runner still has some upside; interesting rider switch from Prado to bug boy

RACE 10

  1. #9 Sippy Cup (7-2) – Return to grass should do the trick for Frock runner; that was a plus heat last out, and V. Carrasco in the irons a positive
  2. #3 Wednesdays Only (4-1) – There’s plenty to dislike here, especially the 0-for-11 ledger, but last two sprinting tries, against special weight foes, good enough to prevail here
  3. #2 Bonjo (15-1) – Led a long way last out, in first in two years, before tiring late; should be fitter here, and gets Lasix for first time