The GQ Approach – Laurel July 3

by | Jul 3, 2016 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing, Racing

Mizz Money (#9) held off Vielsalm (in between) and Heath (#12) to win the Grade 3 Gallorette. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (Friday-Sunday, with twilight racing each Friday), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers. 

GQ himself is taking the summer off.  In his stead will be a rotating band of ‘cappers.

CARRYOVERS

  • Rainbow Pick 6 (20-cent base): $14,099.00

BEST BET OF THE DAY

Race 4 / #5 – Triple Burner (9-2)

LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY

Race 10 / #9 – Photo Gallery (10-1)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

    • Race 3: $2 Double: 4, 9, 10 w/ 5
    • Race 8: $0.50 Pick 3:  3, 6, 8 w/ 8, 9 w/ 9, 11, 12 ($18)

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

  • Number of races scheduled for turf: 5
  • Weather: Cloudy, slight chance of rain showers
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST
  • Projected condition of turf: FIRM

RACE 1

  1. #3 Mountain Hero (5-2) – Toss the disastrous off-track efforts, and this guy looks like he just might be too good for these; F. Lynch stays aboard a runner who figures to be controlling speed
  2. #4 Mountain Man (8-1) – Ran on willingly last, and though he loses the 10-pound bug, he gains a steady veteran hand in J. Toledo
  3. #6 Andy Picked Me (2-1) – Game effort last out after seeming to be done and is tactical enough to employ stalk and pounce approach under A. Cruz

RACE 2

  1. #3 Mr. Game Seven (7-2) – Seven furlongs figures to hit long-striding Majestic Warrior colt between the eyes; respectable effort last on dirt, and three won their next from that heat
  2. #6 Flowers for Lisa (3-1) – Major drop from older/allowance types to middle claiming sophomores; has won last two times he’s faced similar
  3. #7 You Got It (5-2) – Fire sale in progress as Rudy Rod drops runner to bottom of claiming range ($11k); last out, for $20k at BEL, was a willing try when the horse looked uncomfortable for much of the event but stuck with it to the end

RACE 3

  1. #4 Make Big Plans (5-1) – Credible tries in first two and a less than optimal trip last out; that one has produced two next-out winners, and note five (!) works since May 6 race
  2. #10 Hardly Home (41) High end connections make Hard Spun gelding likely to be overbet, but he shows a good work since last; T. McCarthy stays aboard
  3. #9 Cryptos’ Holiday (8-1) – The horse that raises the question, how many Cryptos are there, anyway? Credible effort last out in first two-turn try, and note the addition of Lasix

RACE 4

  1. ***BEST BET*** #5 Triple Burner (9-2) – Versatile sort clearly an inch better on the lawn, gets back to it here; couldn’t get by Pool Winner two back in last turf try, but that guy would be clear fave here; Ortiz stays aboard
  2. #7 Indian Bucks (2-1) – Six-year-old is not the same horse as the one whom J. Ness claimed for $7,500 back in January, enters with three straight turf wins against lesser; class test awaits
  3. #6 Magritte (10-1) – Curlin colt hopes to paint a pretty picture here; could be this is just a prep for longer duty, but two prior sprint efforts on main track are credible for M. Trombetta, who generally has them running off the bench

RACE 5

  1. #5 E Lizzy (7-2) – Second allowance looks like a bridge too far for T. Keefe trainee, but this mare crushed first ALW foes back in March and should appreciate getting back to a level where she fits
  2. #4 Emelina (7-5) – Speedy, formful mare figures a handful here after throttling similar in two of last four, but note that she hasn’t been able to take first allowance; speedster may face early pressure
  3. #7 Love That (3-1) – K. Magee thrives first off the claim; legs up 5-pound bug boy Gomez

RACE 6

  1. #8 Straightaway (8-1) – Comes back on fairly short rest after a middling try when wide on the turn last out; second try with Lasix, and suspect the added ground since last is a plus
  2. #7 Daily News (5-2) – Jump Start gelding has kept the right company in last two, as the runner-up from last won an ALW next out and the two-back winner repeated against stakes foes; Carrasco remains up
  3. #3 Magnificent Mr Z (12-1) – 6yo really isn’t all that magnificent – just one win from 14 starts – but has enough credible tries to be worth a gander here; note F. Lynch jumps from brother Cal’s horse (#12) to ride this one

RACE 7

  1. #7 Special Congrats (30-1) – If you’re gonna swing, swing for the fences; in a terrible race filled with terrible horses… this guy completely fits the bill, and it’s complemented by a trainer who’s winless in ’16 and a rider who’s 4-for-72 – but you’ll get every penny of 30-1 and more, and note three back second to Mail Order Groom, who (up to Saturday) was one of the dominant local horses at the level; a repeat of that puts this one in the mix
  2. #2 Love Rules All (7-2) – Three straight failures as chalk are not a draw, but Tribal Rule gelding did win four back – more recently than his rivals – and so has some recent positive form to try to find
  3. #4 Hollywood Ice (3-1) – Last two are nothing to crow about but G. Brooks trainee has mostly kept better company than this

RACE 8

  1. #6 Beaches N Bourbon (4-1) – Tons the best in last out maiden-breaker in first try with blinks and Lasix; looks to have higher upside than these rivals
  2. #8 Queeb (3-1) – Performance to date fits with this group, and breeding says the longer distance here should help
  3. #3 Fire the Nurse (5-2) – Good try last out when second after leading in the lane; was the only real forward factor early to be around late; 5-2 feels a little short, though

RACE 9

  1. #9 Struth (8-1) – Returned running from 18-month layoff when prevailing last out at Old Hilltop; that race has produced a next-out winner, and this Trombetta trainee could make it two – every reason to think second off the bench could be better than first
  2. #8 Demon Buster (7-2) – Was widest of all when rallying into second against similar last out in first try with blinks; show horse that day returned to win; still plenty of upside here
  3. #3 Admirals War Chest (6-1) – Return from break wasn’t promising – but two next-out stakes winners (including G1 Bradester) mean that was a rugged group; look for improved work here

RACE 10

  1. ***LONGSHOT*** #9 Photo Gallery (10-1) – Wooley trainee finds lowest level of career and returns to sprint distance; when last sprinting on lawn, she was a credible fifth behind recent G1 winner Miss Temple City
  2. #11 Flame of My Heart (3-1) – D. Barr trainee gave it the old college try last, setting a fast pace and sticking with it to the end; blinks go on
  3. #12 Mesmerize (7-2) – Toss the route tries and L. Gaudet runner looks like a prime contender; both winners of her sprints repeated