The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5 ($16,096 carryover).

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double   1, 2, 4 w/ 1, 4, 7 ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3   8 w/ 2, 3, 6 w/ 2, 4, 6 ($9)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4  1, 4, 8 w/ 4, 5, 7 w/ 4, 8 w/ 4, 7  ($18)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  3, 4, 8 w/ 4, 5, 7 ($18)

 

[su_box title=”SPECIAL PLAYS” style=”glass”]
  • Best Bet: Race 3 / #8 – Blame Me (9-5)
  • Longshot: Race 7 / #7 – Emelina (8-1)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for Mostly Sunny skies with temps in the high-30s and no chance of precipitation. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Fast.” HAPPY BIRTHDAY J.R.!!! 

Race 1

  1. #1 – Cousin Michael (2-1): Drops back to level where he won easily @ Prx two races back      
  2. #4 – Escrow Kid (4-1): Steps up into open Claimers after finally rewarding Chalk players w/ a “W” after failing as fav in 5 of previous 6 races
  3. #2– Arrive (4-1): Hard to get a gauge on dramatic turnaround in form since coming off layoff; could have been Lrl (9:3-2-0) or off track  

 

Race 2  

  1. #4 – Fran’s Buckaroo (5-1): Been facing much better but when he is smartly placed, he runs like a champ (see two back); today should be one of the days        
  2. #1 – Favor Factor (6-1): Brisnet#’s been ascending over the past three races; Prx duo of M. Remedio / A. Velazquez have won 4 of 11 over the past year       
  3. #7 – Worthy Lion (3-1): Should get stalking trip OR could be on a suicide mission by hooking up w/ #5 early… to set up for Magee uncoupled entry mate (#2)?  

 

Race 3  

  1. #8 – Blame Me (9-5): *Best Bet* Only runner in here w/ more than 2 wins (he has 5 from 13 starts), goes for 4th in a row while this Closer gets perfect setup as 6 of 7 foes have early speed        
  2. #6 – Techwood (15-1): He’s the only other runner who wants no part of the early lead; if there’s a major pace meltdown in deep stretch, this one could make for a nice Exacta or Trifecta payoff       
  3. #2 – Otis My Man (2-1): Sham-a-lam-a-ding-dong! 1st start for Ness barn results in “W” v. N2L; Can make it 2 for 2 @ Lrl as that win was on a steep drop

 

Race 4         

  1. #6 – Alpha Dude (7-2): Beaten favorite in last outing v. similar when 4-5 wide entire trip; Y. Ortiz gets call to sub for suspended N. Juarez
  2. #3 – Majestic Indeed (4-1): Showed nice late foot to be second best to a run away winner; stretches out another furlong trying for 3rd win from 7 starts at distance  
  3. #2 – Big Wags (15-1): 9-year-old comes off bench for W. Potts, has back class and nice work tab; 8% jock gets 1st mount at meet and has ridden 3 winners for barn from 14 mounts           

 

Race 5

  1. #6 – Rocky Policy (9-2): 3rd start after layoff; in first two faced a number of very talented fillies; catches a break and could turn tables on prohibitive M/L favorite (#2)  
  2. #2 – Blame It On Ed (6-5): 3rd behind impressive next out stakes winner Sweet On Smokey; should draft in behind early speed and take over in mid-stretch IF she moves forward again      
  3. #4 – Imwiththeblonde (5-1): Drew a tough field last time where most had same running style (Early Speed); not so today and could get early jump and go gate-to-wire

 

Race 6           

  1. #1 – Prince Leroi (3-1): Appears to have been “buy back” after claim two back; 5 time winner eligible for this condition by virtue of win in $4k n2Y @ Pen      
  2. #4 – Pacific Ridge (4-1): Encountered traffic v. open $7,500 claimers in last; drops for 4th straight race in search of 5th career win  
  3. #8 – Mavericks Gun (5-1): Might be filled w/ blanks as this Magee trainee was chilly on the board on a class drop in Lrl debut and ran to those odds (7th of 8); hard to use but hard to toss on another class drop    

 

Race 7  

  1. #7 – Emelina (8-1): $Longshot Play$ Taking a shot that Caitlyn gets her to the early lead like last race, w/o any pressure and can lull this field to sleep along this 9 furlong journey                 
  2. #4 – Maybe Tonight (8-5): …but not today? A vulnerable M/L fav does best work on an off track and v. PA-breds; has never been off the board @ Lrl (6:2-3-1)      
  3. #5 – Max’s Warrior (6-1): The infamous “Lightbulb Theory” as it took him 13 tries to break maiden, then came right back to beat an OC25k field; Brisnet#s climbing towards natural Hat Trick

 

Race 8  

  1. #8 – One Proud Gal (3-1): In peak form right now; beat similar last time; offered for a tag here… wonder if anyone will drop the slip for her?
  2. #4 – Tallow (5-1): Not the cleanest of trips in 3rd race after layoff when sent off 5-2; gets rematch w/ #8 and cut back in distance    
  3. #3 – Sweet Fortune (3-1): Breaking from rail not ideal but if Pimentel hustles her to the lead early, she’s a threat to go gate-to-wire           

 

Race 9  

  1. #4 – Ms Micromanagement (7-2): Denied diploma by a nose in last outing when 6-5 fav.; gets break in distance which should allow her to make amends        
  2. #7 – Town Leader (8-5): Drops to bottom level off middling third-place effort against MC 16k.
  3. #5 – De Wish (6-1): 4-year-old FTS by D’wildcat in for $8k tag cost $15k as a yearling; Salzman, Jr. is 23% w/ Maiden Claimers but 0 for 9 when debuting for tag; Carrasco in irons gives hope

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Last live racing date was on Friday January 22nd at Laurel Park due to the record-setting snowstorm last weekend, which started this day, resulted in 3 winners from a shortened 5 race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) due to weather conditions, having $2 WIN pay-off of $3.20 (2nd race), $6.40 (3rd) and $5.80 (4th). Note: Year-to-date Top Selections are 29 for 113 (25.6%).
  • Track Bias: To date in 2016, just 22 runners (6 – 5½f; 5 – 6f; 4 – 7f; 2 – one mile; 3 – 1 1/16 miles; 2 – 1 1/8 miles) have gone gate-to-wire at Laurel Park from 113 races. Note: This past Friday three (3) runners from a weather shortened 5-race card went gate-to-wire with temps in the mid-20s. For all five (5) races the track helped runners who were either on the lead or sat just off the pace the entire trip.
  • BEST BET of the Day (13: 4-1-0) Start Jumping (4th race: 3-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) pulled his way forward to the inside of TWENTY PERCENT after a quarter mile, edged clear under a light hold after a half mile, was guided well off the fence while extending his lead and under a ride entering the lane, kept on under repeated encouragement and held firm to win by 3½ lengths and return $5.80 to WIN, $3.80 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (10: 0-0-2) Jump for Love (6th race: 6-1 M/L) did not run due to the cancellation of the card prior to the running of the 6th race.

 

RECAP of 2015: Year One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  
Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.