The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6 ($2,817 carryover), 50 cent Pick 5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 5, 7 w/ 2, 3, 8  ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  2, 3, 6 w/ 1, 6, 7 w/ 3, 7, 8  ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4  1, 2, 7 w/ 1, 3, 9 w/ 2, 7 w/ 5, 9 ($18)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  2, 7 w/ 3, 5, 9 ($12)

 

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  • Best Bet: Race 7 / #1 – Breezed Bayou (4-1)
  • Longshot: Race 3 / #3 – Reach for Yield (5-1)

 

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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for Mostly Sunny skies with temps in the high-20s and no chance of precipitation. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Fast.”

Race 1

  1. #7 – Open Petition (7-2): MD-bred FTS by Petitionville been working in earnest since mid-Nov. @ Fair Hill for M. Shuman who is 2 for 9 w/ Debut Maiden Claimers      
  2. #5 – Imperial Me (8-1): Prx runner that has flashed early speed before stopping on a dime going 6½ f v. PA-breds; P. Farro has passed this one off to local conditioner D. Dilodovico
  3. #1 – New Turf (8-5): Amazing how this gelding has only finished ahead of 1 foe in 2 main track career races, yet is prohibitive M/L favorite solely on class drop  

 

Race 2  

  1. #3 – Dixie Deputy (7-2): A perfect 3 for 3 at 5½f and part of Exacta in all 7 starts @ Lrl makes him the one to beat        
  2. #8 – Silver Legend (3-1): Just one look at his past 10 races indicates that this ($5k) level is where he finds success     
  3. #2 – Q’s Jack (7-2): Always gets in-the-money at this level; might come up short for the win though

 

Race 3  

  1. #3 – Reach for Yield (5-1): $Longshot Play$ Ships in from Aqu for M. Nevin (10:3-2-2 @ Lrl); interesting how she gets Carrasco to ride when he is C. Gonzalez’s (has #4) go to rider    
  2. #2 – Whiskey Sour (7-2): Scored in 1st race after J. Ness claim w at this level; no reason to believe he cannot repeat       
  3. #6 – Vision of Green (2-1): Solid effort in most recent start v. N1X; back in for $10k tag when winner 1st off Eppler claim two back

 

Race 4         

  1. #6 – Boss’s Rules (7-2): Has shown early speed in the past which should be helpful on fast, frozen track here; Gonzalez 29% 1st race after claim
  2. #7 – Alwaysacontest (4-1): Hard knocking 9-year-old was runner-up 1st race after K. Graci claim when 4-wide on turn; loves Lrl (15:5-6-0) and distance (15:7-5-1)  
  3. #1 – Darn Quiet (9-2): Popular in the racing office (Claimed 5x in past 10 races) has early speed to get lead and outlast foes           

 

Race 5

  1. #8 – Williamsburg (5-1): Sire (Too Much Bling) was a sprint graded-stakes winner and placed 6th in ‘06 BC Sprint; like the works especially last on from gate to prepare for today’s debut
  2. #3 – Sound Check (7-2): Ness does well (27%) w/ FTS; this one by Pomeroy completed his prep work going 6f in 1:14 from gate    
  3. #7 – Zimbabwe (6-1): 1 of 2 G. Motion FTS in here (also has #2); like this one because Aussie sire (Lonhro) runners have often fired at first asking

 

Race 6           

  1. #1 – Snow Leopard (9-5): Was trainer scratch out of $75k Fire Plug here over the weekend presumably for this easier spot; gate-to-wire threat      
  2. #2 – Sir Sidney (3-1): “1st race after Magee (30%) Claim” when 1-1 beaten favorite but steps to level; broke maiden in only other 6f effort  
  3. #7 – Siete de Oros (6-1): A perfect 2 for 2 at this distance; owns 2nd best Brisnet Prime Power# in this field    

 

Race 7  

  1. #1 – Breezed Bayou (4-1): *Best Bet* Nice runner-up finish off the bench in spite of not the cleanest of trips from rail; stretch out to 7f is just what this Lemon Drop Kid offspring needs… more ground              
  2. #9 – Alajmal (10-1): 4x winner on steeplechase circuit tries the flats for just 2nd time career; showed early pace in that one going 9f then tired; A.M. drills have a couple bullets      
  3. #3 – Western Willie (10-1): FTS for E. Allard (8:2-1-0 @ Lrl) out of a Williamstown (graded stakes winner at middle-distance) has a nice work tab @ Prx; w/ J.D. in the irons this 4-year-old could be quick from the gate          

 

Race 8  

  1. #7 – Act of Madness (7-2): Seems to have wasted majority of career on the turf (1 for 20) while 5 for 6 on fast track; Ness ships him from Tam to go for natural Hat Trick        
  2. #2 – Starry Moon (6-1): Has been facing much better than these; there will be plenty of early pace to try to catch late IF the track remains kind to off the pace runners    
  3. #5 – Behemoth (7-2): Got shutout from Winners Circle in ’15 (0 for 12) but still has ability to compete at this level for a share if start ’16 w/ a win           

 

Race 9  

  1. #5 – Duchess of Wicklow (5-2): Took action (2-1) @ CT off layoff but had no chance after stumbled; switch to Cartagena (from Magee) may be just temporary; Vargas is riding well for barn (7 of 17)     
  2. #9 – Tough Weather (9-5): Combo of C. Stoddard/R. Bailes looking for third straight victory at this level since giving this 5-year-old class relief; a speed favoring track could derail him         
  3. #3 – Gator Gone Wild (12-1): Can get nice stalking trip for trainer Farrior (21% in ’15) whose only other shipper to Lrl got PLACE purse

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Sunday January 17th at Laurel Park had 5 winners from 9 races (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $3.40 (1st race), $7.60 (2nd), $10.20 (3rd), $4.80 (6th) and $4.40 (9th). Year-to-date Top Selections are 25 for 99 (25.2%).
  • Track Bias: To date in 2016, just 18 runners (5 – 5½f; 4 – 6f; 3 – 7f; 2 – one mile; 3 – 1 1/16 miles; 1 – 1 1/8 miles) have gone gate-to-wire at Laurel Park from 99 races, while on Sunday no runners went gate-to-wire.
  • BEST BET of the Day (11: 3-1-0) Time to Spare (8th race: 9-5 M/L; 3-5 PT) stalked the pace three wide, angled four wide under coaxing nearing the stretch, failed to kick on and retreated through the final three sixteenths to finish 5th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (9: 0-0-2) Venetian Cat (8th race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) circled the turn five deep and failed to rally while finishing 5th.

 

RECAP of 2015: Year One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  
Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.