The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  2, 3, 6 w/ 3, 4, 6 ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  2, 6, 7 w/ 3, 5, 6 w/ 4, 5, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4  2, 3, 5 w/ 1, 3, 6 w/ 1, 2, 3 w/ 4, 6 ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  1, 2, 3 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($18)

 

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  • Best Bet: Race 9 / #4 – Dancinwithdunkirk (3-1)
  • Longshot: Race 8 / #3 – Jarvis Steel (5-1)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for Partly Cloudy skies with high temps near 50 and no rain until the evening hours. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Fast”.  

Race 1

  1. #6 – Cooking Up a Storm (4-1): Gets perfect setup in this opener filled with early speed to duplicate winning effort v. $25k Claimers in last outing    
  2. #2 – Bluegrass Chat (9-5): Got the better of the #1A in here last @ Prx in a speed duel that was over quickly; holds big edge on field w/ Brisnet Prime Power#     
  3. #3 – Ore Pass (10-1): Catching a “fast” track will certainly help chances today along with the hope that all the early speed comes back to him    

 

Race 2  

  1. #3 – Harbor Breeze (5-2): String of 3 straight victories at this level broken last time in mud and was steadied late; a new streak starts today
  2. #6 – Good Chemistry (12-1): Steps up in 1st race after G. Sacco claim; has been a win machine of late
  3. #4 – Magic Harbor (9-2): Put up for the “W” when impeded by winner (#1 in here) in last effort; w/ J.D. up took for more tactical speed  

 

Race 3  

  1. #2 – Crafty Regan (9-2): Steps back up to level she managed to get second in two race back; only 1 of 2 in here to have won at distance    
  2. #6 – Star Eighty (4-1): Always seems to be right there w/ a chance in the stretch but never “finishes”       
  3. #7 – Humint (5-1): Only 4 career races in a span of 16 months; drops from OC$25k not a positive sign after “gave way” in last Nov. 28 but is only class dropper in here

 

Race 4         

  1. #5 – Baleroom Dancer (5-1): Rarely endorse a FTS in for a ($16k) tag, especially WV-bred, but J. Robb runner has nice work out pattern         
  2. #6 – Avianka (3-1): 3 career races all going 1 mile or more, tries sprinting and adds Blinkers; nice 3 furlong bullet work since last start  
  3. #3 – Koppnout (8-1): FTS by Ice Box cost $18k at auction last May; might have some late run v. a group of quitters           

 

Race 5

  1. #9 – Jiravit (7-2): Beaten PT favorite when just missed v. similar on New Years’ Day; likes distance (3:2-1-0)  
  2. #5 – Yolo Mon (9-2): 2 for 2 since returning to races after getting distanced in debut @ CD 18 months prior to second start/win    
  3. #4 – El Ceebeo (2-1): Second race after claim for outfit scoring 33% w/ this angle; earned career best BSF v. Alw25000s last outing

 

Race 6  

  1. #5 – It’s the Truth (7-2): Better of the two G. Motion uncoupled runners? #7 is the other; this one sent off 3-1 in debut got 3rd and an education        
  2. #2 – If I Was a Boy (9-5): Nice showing (4th) in MD Juv. Fillies Championship; will look to graduate by going gate-to-wire    
  3. #3 – Clare’s Dowery (10-1): Away since turf try on Nov. 22nd but has been busy in A.M.; climbing BSF is a good sign    

 

Race 7  

  1. #1 – Silver Bop (9-2): Lost all chance at start of last outing; was so far back jock pulled him up; Karamanos stays on for return           
  2. #6 – Approximator (10-1): Very wide & outrun when in for $16k 1st after claim for $10k; adds Blinkers and drops to bottom level      
  3. #3 – Whisky Rock (2-1): 1 win and ITM 8 of 9 races at distance; took a while to get 2nd win but BSF continue to ascend     

 

Race 8

  1. #3 – Jarvis Steel (5-1): $Longshot Play$ Surprise debut winner (21-1) earned big BSF, matched only by M/L fav. (#7) in his 6th start; can make it 2 for 2 w/ a stalking trip        
  2. #2 – Captain Alex (3-1): Gets McCarthy and should make a nice late run on cut back in distance v. group filled w/ early speed       
  3. #1 – J W Racer (10-1): Has a couple ugly running lines but R. Graham took chance claiming him, then was rewarded w/ 4th place finish in OC50k in a rough trip           

 

Race 9  

  1. #4 – Dancinwithdunkirk (3-1): *Best Bet* Makes natural dirt debut after 11 races north of the border (WO) on synthetic; actually beat $8k claimers in N2L but was DQ’d; trainer Kulp’s shippers from Pen been ITM 5 of 5 trips to Lrl     
  2. #6 – Dr. Abramson (8-5): Vulnerable M/L favorite in spite of C. Lynch’s lofty stats (32%) 2nd after claim; was beaten fav. on drop and drops again; 1st time “reported” as gelding today       
  3. #8 – Slews Love (8-1): Forgiving him for that last race in mud; prior to runner-up effort two back had two troubled trips which compromised chances

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Monday January 11th at Laurel Park had 6 winners from 9 races (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $2.40 (1st race), $8.80 (2nd), $4.20 (4th), $4.20 (5th), $11.60 (6th) and $3.40 (9th). Of suggested Multi-Race wagers hit $2 DOUBLE R1-R2 for $12.60 (cost: $18).
  • Track Bias: To date in 2016, just 14 runners (5 – 5½f; 3 – 6f; 2 – 7f; 2 – one mile; 1 – 1 1/16 miles; 1 – 1 1/8 miles) have gone gate-to-wire at Laurel Park from 72 races, but on a frigid Monday (Jan. 11th) 4 of the 9 winners led every step of the way.
  • BEST BET of the Day (8: 2-0-0) Start Swinging (7th race: 5-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) bore out at the break bumping SPUNKY CAT and forcing that rival into SIMPLY BELONGING, corrected and edged up between rivals into the turn, took dead aim mid turn, bid three wide near the quarter pole, took over in upper stretch, moved clear under a drive in mid-stretch and steadily widened late to win by 2¾ lengths returning $8.80 to WIN, $4.80 to PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (7: 0-0-1) Fortutious (7th race: 6-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) raced mid-pack to the turn, was 2-wide on the turn and had nothing left in the stretch run to finish a disappointing 10th.

 

RECAP of 2015: Year One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  
Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.