The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 3, 5 w/ 1, 2, 5 ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  3, 5, 7 w/ 1, 3, 6 w/ 1, 6, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4  2, 3, 5 w/ 4, 5, 7 w/ 1, 6, 7 w/ 2, 3 ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  1, 6, 7 w/ 1, 2, 3 ($18)

 

[su_box title=”SPECIAL PLAYS” style=”glass”]
  • Best Bet: Race 2 / #2 – Start Swinging (5-2)
  • Longshot: Race 7 / #4 – Fortutious (6-1)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for sunny and cold with temps in the mid-30’s and no chance of rain. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Fast.”

Race 1

  1. #3 – Stormy Invasion (3-5): Beaten PT fav. looks like a FREE Space in the Early Double but there is no such thing in horse racing; question is can he go two-turns
  2. #5 – Regal Crossing (15-1): Had a short-lived turf career; was outrun 1st dirt in the mud sprinting last time; only way to go is up     
  3. #1 – Dreamin of Betty (6-1): Should improve off 4th place effort when 1st time on dirt going two-turns  

 

Race 2  

  1. #2 – Start Swinging (5-2): *Best Bet* Takes advantage of Waiver Claiming Rule coming off 10 month layoff; all ITM finishes (8:3-2-1) have come here      
  2. #5 – Grace is a Beauty (7-2): Been in over her head since claim 3 back; connections now have her in a spot where she has a shot       
  3. #1 – Briar Mojo (8-1): Addition of blinkers in 1st race off claim only made matters worse; sheds the hood today and gets Toledo

 

Race 3  

  1. #5 – Super Fund (5-2): This G. Motion trainee has been away since last Feb.; was gelded then has been on a steady work schedule past three months    
  2. #3 – Malibu Preacher (7-2): A G. Weaver castoff; Talley gives Malibu Moon gelding 1st Lasix in 8th career start; last seen @ Kee for $40k in Oct. holding up the rear       
  3. #7 – High Above Georgia (6-1): Gets a fast track for 1st time in 5th career start now that turf season has ended; has had time off (hopefully) to learn how to be a racehorse

 

Race 4         

  1. #3 – Jump for Trump (5-1): FTS by Jump Start goes for outfit (D. Barr) who wins w/ 27% who debut for a tag; work tab looks promising         
  2. #1 – Bioterp (5-2): Hasn’t run a bad race in 4 lifetime starts; gets tough assignment from the rail though  
  3. #6 – Do What I Say (7-2): Larry Johnson home bred by Street Magician appears will be quick from the gate based on a few bullets in the nicely spaced work tab             

 

Race 5

  1. #6 – Blame Me (2-1): Just one ITM finish from 11 starts but has improved speed figures in last two, both career bests, was just 3 lengths behind M/L in here 2 back  
  2. #11 – Reach for Yield (7-5): AE Needs someone to scratch to draw in; outside post is tough to overcome at Lrl going 1 1/16, but Nevin NY shipper has early speed for Carrasco to save ground on first turn; if scratched use #3 – Flash Heart (8-1) as he could go gate-to-wire if track is kind to speed today
  3. #1 – My Jersey Boy (6-1): Lukewarm endorsement as recent main oval success came on an off track; worse race of career is only one on a fast track last summer

 

Race 6  

  1. #2 – Street Miz (4-1): Was best of the rest to runaway winner when stretched out to one mile; comes right back at same distance and steps up one class level        
  2. #5 – Sneaky Fair (5-1): KY-bred FTS by Elusive Quality fired a bullet in final tune-up for debut; catches a weak group of maidens      
  3. #3 – Cherished Prize (3-1): Seems like only R. Jenkins 3-year-old who hasn’t broken maiden; based on double-digit odds from first two outings, she’s been a disappointment in A.M. too; 1st time in for tag    

 

Race 7  

  1. #4 – Fortutious (6-1): $Longshot Play$ Prx shipper is only entry on the card for R. Preciado (30%); lightly raced 4-year-old cuts back to sprint for 2nd shot at winners; has tactical speed to catch leg-weary front runners late         
  2. #7 – To the Flag (2-1): Prudent claim for $16k three back @ Prx destroyed $25k Starter Alw then lost by a neck v. N1X      
  3. #5 – Liatris (12-1): Not willing to give-up on this gal who was 6-5 in 1st start after 18 month layoff but didn’t run a lick; good sign that Toledo stays on     

 

Race 8

  1. #1 – Dr. Toole (7-5): Touted this one as a Longshot Play two back when took an overland route; small field of OC$25k N2L makes him the default pick as his Brisnet#s have been on the rise   
  2. #6 – Minor Legend (10-1): Runner-up v. similar last outing and SHOW horse came back to win yesterday v. $16k N2L       
  3. #7 – Sartorius (6-1): Broke maiden v. $20k MCL in 1st dirt effort after 13 on grass to start career; J. Sheppard still looking for 1st win at Lrl (0 for 27) in over a year         

 

Race 9  

  1. #2 – Escrow Kid (5-2): Has top Brisnet Prime Power# but that 0 for 11 at 7f distance is a concern even though this field isn’t the toughest he’s face lately     
  2. #3 – Private Tutor (12-1): Nothing but double-digit “lengths behind” in racing lines of past two races but top 2 in both came back to win next outing; only needs slight improvement here       
  3. #1 – Hero’s Notion (7-2): Field lacks early speed so Carrasco should get this one to early lead and hope track will carry his mount first under the wire; don’t care for entrymate #1A

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Sunday January 10th at Laurel Park had 5 winners from 9 races (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $4.80 (1st race), $11.80 (2nd), $2.40 (3rd), $8.60 (7th) and $14.60 (8th). Of suggested Multi-Race wagers hit $2 DOUBLE R1-R2 for $46.20 (cost: $18). Year-to-date Top Selections are 13 for 63 (22%).
  • Track Bias: To date in 2016, just 10 runners (4 – 5½f; 2 – 6f; 2 – 7f; 1 – one mile; 1 – 1 1/8 miles) have gone gate-to-wire at Laurel Park from 63 races.
  • BEST BET of the Day (7: 1-0-0) I’m Mr Blue (7th race: 7-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) saved ground around the turn, was put to a drive entering the stretch and gave way along the rail to finish 5th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (6: 0-0-1) Maggie Wag (5th race: 12-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) rated back early, saved ground, steadied lacking room midway on the turn, was in hand waiting for room entering the stretch, swung to the six path approaching the eighth pole and had a mild rally outside foes to finish 4th.

 

RECAP of 2015: Year One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  
Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.