The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  4, 6, 8 w/ 1, 5, 8 ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  2, 5, 8 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 2, 6, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4  1, 5, 8 w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 3, 4, 5 w/ 3, 10 ($18)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  3, 4, 5 w/ 3, 10 ($12)

 

[su_box title=”SPECIAL PLAYS” style=”glass”]
  • Best Bet: Race 7 / #1 – I’m Mr. Blue (7-2)
  • Longshot: Race 5 / #2 – Maggie Wag (12-1)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for Mostly Cloudy skies with temps in the upper-50’s and A.M. rain ending by early afternoon. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Sloppy.”

Race 1

  1. #4 – Purnata (4-1): 6 starts, all on turf or synthetic surfaces but hardly bred for turf (by Dunkirk, out of a Smart Strike mare)
  2. #6 – Town Leader (3-1): 2nd race after Magee claim for $8k; was run right back for $20k and showed late interest; drops to $14k     
  3. #8 – Another Like You (5-2): 1st time in for tag in 12th career start; Boyce/Abbott combo 21% at meet  

 

Race 2  

  1. #1 – Gentle Johnny (9-5): No worse than 2nd in past 4 efforts while climbing class ladder; will be saddled by 3rd different trainer in as many races; Trombetta’s turn this time      
  2. #5 – Max Crown (10-1): Career best Brisnet# came on an off track; drops from OC25k where he SHOWed when 36-1 in mud     
  3. #8 – I’ll Play My Hand (8-5): Shipped from high pct. SoCal trainer to T. Clark locally; leery of ability to handle off track

 

Race 3  

  1. #2 – Five On a Dime (3-5): Best in here by a longshot on paper, but races aren’t run on paper; 1 of 2 maidens shipping down from Big Apple for M. Nevin    
  2. #8 – Goldies Tale (12-1): In two career outings (at Pen in MSW) has finished ahead just 1 foe; away since Nov. 6th, drops to $12,500, adds Lasix, sheds blinkers, gets Toledo in irons       
  3. #5 – Won Ton Soup (20-1): Ran to odds (33-1) in debut here in Oct.; Adds Lasix & Blinkers; best two works have been on mud and slop

 

Race 4         

  1. #1 – Arrive (9-2): Hit bottom of the barrel in most recent but responded w/ nice win; banking on him to repeat, not regress         
  2. #5 – Thunder Lord (3-1): 2 wins at this level in last two on dirt; should get honest pace to chase down late  
  3. #6 – I Love It (15-1): Prx shipper is forever late on the scene; wishful thinking 8-yr-old can get to wire first, but worth exotic play at this price            

 

Race 5

  1. #2 – Maggie Wag (12-1): $Longshot Play$ Just one ITM finish from 11 starts but has improved speed figures in last two, both career bests, was just 3 lengths behind M/L in here 2 back  
  2. #6 – Glorious Ride (3-1): Connections continue to drop her after being PLACE and SHOW finisher for one level higher in past two races    
  3. #7 – Ermine and Purrs (9-2): It might behoove trainer Sillaman to have Carrasco send this gal right out of the gate, as was her running style prior to claim 6 starts ago     

 

Race 6  

  1. #5 – Blue Hen Madness (5-1): Prx shipper comes off two runner-up efforts w/ Acosta in irons; 3 for 3 at distance; 1 for 1 on off track and no stranger to Lrl (4:1-1-1)         
  2. #8 – Conspirer (3-1): Been a while since she’s run on dirt but is capable (12:2-0-4); won last turf race of season and claimed by McMahon in last start  
  3. #1 – Knacque (5-1): Magee snuck this mare through $7,500 claimer last outing (a win) to be eligible for this Alw7500s condition; 2 for 2 @ Lrl; 3 for 5 on off track    

 

Race 7  

  1. #1 – I’m Mr. Blue (7-2): *Best Bet* Pimentel back in the saddle as he’s never been OTB (5:1-2-2) while aboard this gelding and owns top Brisnet Prime Power# in this field; off track is no problem (4:1-1-2)         
  2. #4 – Troubled Waters (3-1): A threat to take this group gate-to-wire if dirt oval is “off” as it appears he won’t pressed early      
  3. #6 – Larry Le Roi (20-1): Will need to revert back to form he flashed in ’14 Jennings; 1st time in for tag; if Luzzi sends him, it could be interesting late     

 

Race 8

  1. #3 – Egyptian Magic (4-1): Tossing local bow in last as she couldn’t get lead due to awkward start; could steal it on the front end w/ alert break        
  2. #4 – Cinderella’s Mind (3-1): A hard sell for the win at this distance (9:0-4-3) but Prx shipper never OTB on off track (3:1-0-2)      
  3. #5 – Understanding (5-1): Surprising Boyce bailed as this 6-year-old mare chances were compromised by traffic at 3/16th pole; gets extra real estate for off the pace running style         

 

Race 9  

  1. #10 – Ms Micromanagement (7-5): She’ll be on the lead at the ¼ pole but has been fading in deep stretch; extra furlong might do her in if she gets tested early     
  2. #3 – Foolish Romance (6-1): Double-digit odds past four starts as connections have placed her too ambitiously; buried by a couple next out winners takes huge drop       
  3. #9 – Well Up (3-1): On the shelf since Oct.; NJ-bred couldn’t conquer her own kind for $10k @ Mth this Summer; likely running for PLACE purse

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Saturday January 9th at Laurel Park had just 4 winners from 9 races (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $5.60 (2nd race), $4.20 (6th), $3.80 (8th) and $7.20 (9th). Of suggested Multi-Race wagers hit $2 DOUBLE R8-R9 for $17.40 (cost: $12).
  • Track Bias: To date in 2016, just 8 runners (4 – 5½f; 1 – 6f; 1 – 7f; 1 – one mile; 1 – 1 1/8 miles) have gone gate-to-wire at Laurel Park from 54 races, none won on Saturday.
  • BEST BET of the Day (6: 1-0-0) Reason to Believe (4th race: 8-5 M/L; 4-5 PT) wide, was under pressure mid turn and failed to make an impact and faded further back to finish 7th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (5: 0-0-1) De Rigueur (7th race: 6-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) bumped with LITE SIDE near the six furlongs pole, disputed the pace outside OYSTER SOUP and gave way the final furlong to finish 4th.

RECAP of 2015: Year One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  
Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.