The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  4, 5, 6 w/ 1, 2, 7 ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3 2, 3, 8 w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 3, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4 3, 4, 6 w/ 3, 4, 8 w/ 4, 6, 7 w/ 1, 6 ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double 4, 6, 7 w/ 1, 6, 7 ($18)

 

[su_box title=”SPECIAL PLAYS” style=”glass”]
  • Best Bet: Race 5 / #3 – Lily’s Peak (8-5)
  • Longshot: Race 7 / #4 – Tallow (6-1)
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[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for Mostly Cloudy skies with temps in the upper-40’s and 30% chance of rain in the evening. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Fast.”

Race 1

  1. #5 – Airlie’s Diamond (5-2): Continues to drop seeking maiden score; compromised by bad start in last outing for $16k MCL
  2. #6 – Sundaes Baby (9-2): Debut was at this level 13 months ago! Attracts Toledo to ride and takes advantage of Waiver Claiming Rule    
  3. #4 – Northern Prancer (2-1): Better of the two Eppler runners (#3 the other)? Will need to go gate-to-wire v. these to graduate today  

 

Race 2  

  1. #7 – Royal Caviar (7-2): Gonzalez finding out this one prefers dirt (6:2-1-1) over turf (7:1-0-0)      
  2. #1 – Snuggley Bear (5-2): Failed as PT fav. in past to outings at this level… 3rd time is a charm?     
  3. #2 – Blitzensmajikreign (3-1): Prx trainer (31% in ‘15) ships in live runners but also has one in R8; 1st time in for tag

 

Race 3  

  1. #2 – Dubious Intent (9-5): Never got to lead v. better ($25k MCL) is excuse I’ll buy for backing up; drops 2 class levels (Keefe 33% w/ this angle) in effort to graduate    
  2. #8 – Cosmic Crash (7-2): Gets a ½ furlong distance relief today after showing early speed and fading going 6f @ Prx       
  3. #3 – Herecomescaddie (10-1): Carrasco takes the reins after a trio of bug riders asked him for early speed then late rally in last; 1st class drop in 4th career race

 

Race 4                                                                                                  

  1. #6 – Habanero Gold (9-2): Has improved speed figure since being claimed by K. Cartagena 6 races back; steps up to familiar class level         
  2. #4 – Rub the Rock (9-2): Made early move to lead in stretch but hung & got beat last time at this level; Toledo back in saddle today  
  3. #1 – Grand Full Moon (9-5): Claimed twice in past 3 races; 1st race off claim for R. Vega, his only entry down from Prx            

 

Race 5

  1. #3 – Lily’s Peak (8-5): *Best Bet* This mare must be a handful as 3 trainers been playing hot potato w/ her; is Magee begging for someone to take her? Won easily v. similar last time and qualifies for this N2Y thanks to $4k wins not counting towards condition  
  2. #6 – Miss Speak (9-2): Game 9-year-old mare surprised at 11-1 here after having no response @ Pen as PT fav.; McCarthy stays on in hopes of a repeat    
  3. #4 – Wild Pantera (15-1): Prx shipper ran better in Alw5000s than v. $5k N1Y, go figure; A. Mariano comes down to retain mount     

 

Race 6  

  1. #4 – Dan’s Girl (7-2): Pen shipper via WO synthetic for trainer/jock combo (24%) in just with this one; impressive win 1st time natural dirt/blinkers v. N2L         
  2. #3 – Love That (2-1): Away since Oct. 3rd w/ half dozen works in A.M. since; has the early speed but so do others in here; vulnerable M/L fav. on drop  
  3. #6 – Oh What a Delite (7-2): Needs pace help as Bug Boy Luzzi has rallied her late only to come up a bridesmaid in last two    

 

Race 7  

  1. #4 – Tallow (6-1): $Longshot Play$ 3rd race after layoff; barn switches to hot apprentice who seems more comfortable riding “late running” types, which she is; hopefully the track will still be kind to Closers         
  2. #3 – One Proud Gal (7-2): Ran behind two next out winners in last effort; like the progressive upward move of Brisnet Speed Figures but 7f might be a bit too far      
  3. #8 – Candida H. (3-1): Do ya have a jock who beats you when ya don’t play them, then can’t win for ya when ya do? J. Pimentel seems to be that jock to me. Take note, regular readers of The GQ Approach     

 

Race 8

  1. #4 – Have Faith Sister (2-1): Second of two shippers for Prx trainer (M. Zulueta; 31% in ’15); takes advantage of qualifying for Alw7500s; beat N4L and N1X in past 2 of 3 races        
  2. #7 – Whogoosedthemoose (8-1): Brown, Jr. “claim back” in Oct. paid a premium, stepped up and won 1st outing for barn in last; that’s confidence and barn gets to protect her here      
  3. #6 – Go Daddy Girl (9-5): Speedster needs lead at 1st Call to win; that might not happen w/ #5 in here; if she does get it, might be used up and caught late       

 

Race 9  

  1. #1 – Cadillac Rose (3-1): Moved to W. Potts barn needs to be quick from the rail, gun to the early lead and hope she’s best today going 5½f      
  2. #6 – Thessa’s Roar (5-2): Bottom level N2L this 1 for 22 filly has been double-digit odds in past 4 yet M/L fav. here indicates the (lack of) talent she faces       
  3. #7 – Little Kitten (4-1): Head-scratcher when 4-1 in 3rd off layoff, 1st dirt since runner-up effort last March

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Monday January 4th at Laurel Park had 5 winners from 9 races (2 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $7.00 (1st race), $4.80 (3rd), $8.80 (7th), $8.80 (8th) and $7.40 (9th). Of suggested Multi-Race wagers hit $2 DOUBLE R8-R9 for $27.00 (cost: $12).
  • Track Bias: To date in 2016, just 4 runners (2 – 5½f; 1 – 6f; 1 – one mile) have gone gate-to-wire at Laurel Park from 36 races.
  • BEST BET of the Day (4: 0-0-0) C V Eis (4th race: 9-5 M/L; 2-1 PT) dueled between rivals to mid stretch and gave way grudgingly to finish 4th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (3: 0-0-0) Outfielder (6th race: 10-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) prompted the early pace between rivals, gave chase two wide into the lane and faded to finish 4th.

 

RECAP of 2015: Year of One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  
Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.