The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (live racing Friday-Monday through Feb. 15th; Post Time 12:25pm), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 10 cent Rainbow Pick-6 ($765 carryover), 50 cent Pick-5 ($4,485 carryover) as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles and Pick-3s.

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Multi-race wagers[/su_heading]

  • Race 1: $2 Double  1, 2, 3 w/ 1, 3, 5 ($18)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3  4, 9, 10 w/ 1, 3, 7 w/ 6, 8, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-4  1, 2, 6 w/ 1, 8 w/ 1, 3, 8 w/ 2, 5, 10 ($27)
  • Race 8: $2 Double  1, 3, 8 w/ 2, 5, 10 ($18)

 

[su_box title=”SPECIAL PLAYS” style=”glass”]
  • Best Bet: Race 2 / #1 – The Great Provider (9-5)
  • Longshot: Race 5 / #6 – After the Cut Off (8-1)
[/su_box]

 

[su_heading size=”21″ align=”left”]Analysis[/su_heading]

* Laurel Park has closed the turf courses for the season. As far as condition of the main track… the forecast for the northern D.C. suburbs is for Partly Sunny skies with temps in the mid-40’s and zero chance of precipitation. The below selections are based on the main track condition being listed as “Fast.”

Race 1

  1. #3 – Follow the Kitten (3-1): Seeking first win on natural dirt (4:0-1-2) after failing as 6-5 fav. and claimed going 1/8th further than today
  2. #2 – Saturday Blues (9-5): M/L odds based on this mare running back to 7-length win v. N2L; needs to save ground this trip  
  3. #1 – Mandy’s Punch (4-1): Regardless of level, she seems to give 110%, but hard to trust her on top when 0 for 10 at Lrl

 

Race 2  

  1. #1 – The Great Provider (9-5): *Best Bet* Cut back from 7f to 6f is key; missed by a neck when 17-1 v. similar; gets first “W” on natural dirt here (5: 0-2-2)    
  2. #3 – Holiday Touch (12-1): Convincing off the pace winner v. N2L in just second natural dirt effort 
  3. #5 – Stitcher (2-1): Pen trainer Kreiser’s lone entry on card was beaten fav. in slop in spite of lofty Brisnet# (87)

 

Race 3  

  1. #4 – Dixie Deputy (7-2): Lost by a nose in last outing v. open $5k Claimers; faces beaten ones today
  2. #10 – Uncle Carm (5-1): Has a chance to take this field gate-to-wire but Lrl dirt oval hasn’t been too kind to early speed       
  3. #9 – Linda’s Last (5-1): Interesting decision by Carrasco (off #10) replacing Prx bug boy; beaten fav. last out and drops

 

Race 4 – $75,000 What A Summer Stakes

  1. #7 – E Dubai Humor (5-2): Beat N2X in 2nd after layoff picking up where she left off when 2 y.o.; look for another step forward; part of Exacta in all 4 dirt tries (4: 3-1-0)            
  2. #3 – Sweet On Smokey (2-1): Conquered N2X two races after chasing top pick while encountering traffic at 1/16th pole  
  3. #1 – Medaglia d’Argento (6-1): Has been facing much better as it shows in running line (best finish 5th since Weaver claim 5 back       

 

Race 5

  1. #6 – After the Cut Off (8-1): $Longshot Play$ Drops back to same distance & level as two races back when runner-up; has outrun long odds in past two
  2. #8 – Diamondback Fire (9-2): Still recall how this freak exploded on turn at Tim in debut; willing to forgive last going one mile; cut back is a plus    
  3. #9 – Hot Feet (7-2): Tough connections LaPenta/Rudy Rod didn’t get desired result when shipped to Prx; this one might a horse for (Lrl) course (2:1-1-0)  

 

Race 6  

  1. #2 – Aruban Truth (6-1): This field has a ton of early speed while this mare who has had her fair share of bad racing luck can pick up the pieces late         
  2. #6 – Colonel Melissa (6-1): Found out last time that N3L are tougher than N2L; could be a threat if bug boy Luzzi gives a patient ride
  3. #1A – Christmas Barn (7-5): Speed of the speed in here should get first jump on all other foes; want no part of entrymate (#1 – Hereshecomesagain)  

 

Race 7 – $75,000 Native Dancer Stakes

  1. #1 – Page McKenney (7-5): 3rd race after layoff and goes for natural Hat Trick; amazingly consistent as he’s hit the board in 21 of 22 races past two years (22: 11-7-3)    
  2. #8 – Catron (7-2): Pletcher trainee ran behind top pick and Kid Cruz in most recent effort at Pen, earning a career best Brisnet# (105)    
  3. #7 – Strong Stipulation (8-1): Away since runner-up effort to top pick in $100k Richard Small in mid-November; nice work tab indicates he’s ready for another top performance   

 

Race 8 – $75,000 Nellie Morse Stakes

  1. #1 – Love Came to Town (4-1): Tactical speed from the rail gives this Prx shipper a big shot on stretch out to two-turns        
  2. #8 – Miss Mischief (5-2): Scratched from last weekend’s $100k Thirty Eight Go Go stakes to go here; has made a living on synthetic but is 3 of 7 on natural dirt  
  3. #3 – Playful Love (6-1): Was over her head G3 Go for Wand at The Big A in Nov.; should fare a bit better v. this group      

 

Race 9  

  1. #10 – Saint Eddie (4-1): Needs a clean trip and best way to guarantee that is to get his a—out of the gate quickly and to the lead;  
  2. #2 – Boon Companion (5-2): Drops after four straight in-the-money finishes v. better; just wonder if 6f is a bit too far for him  
  3. #5 – Bama Sam (10-1): Must have been happy about that 38-0 drubbing of MSU other night; rough trip in most recent outing when 5-2    

 

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • Friday January 1st at Laurel Park had just 2 winners from 9 races (2 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-off of $16.00 (4th race) and $19.60 (9th). Year-to-date Top Selections are 2 for 9.
  • BEST BET of the Day (1: 0-0-0) Forever Cowgirl (1st race: 2-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) set a pressured pace along the rail and weakened in the final furlong to finish 5th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (1: 0-0-0) Snowfly (2nd race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) prompted the pace three wide, was under pressure mid turn and faded to 4th, finishing 4 lengths behind the winner.

 

RECAP of 2015: Year of One of The GQ Approach

  • Selections and Analysis were posted for all live racing days at Laurel Park and Pimlico with a few exceptions when cousin QG filled in. On average The GQ Approach provided Top Pick winners 22% of the time.
  • BEST BET of the Day which by GQ’s standards had to be better than 8-5 Morning Line got to the Winners Circle 27% of the time, was part of the Exacta nearly half (49%) of the time and was good enough to hit the board 2 of every 3 times (67%).
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day which by default is the highest Morning Line odds GQ Top Pick on the card (typically double-digits) won at a 12% clip, was part of the Exacta 24% of the time and was in the money 42% of the time.  

 

Long-time racing fan and analyst Gary Quill brings his ‘capping insights to The Racing Biz. Follow him on Twitter @HorseRacingNut.