The GQ Approach – Laurel November 30

by | Nov 30, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Something Awesome. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park, including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #2 – Tiz Emily and Jill (8-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #1 – Rockin Ruth (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-3  6, 7 w/ 1, 2, 8 w/ 3, 5, 7 ($9.00)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 2, 3, 5 w/ 3, 8, 9 ($18.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high in the 40s
  • Projected condition of main track: FAST; Turf: None
  • Post time: 12:00 noon

Race 1

  1. #6 – Vee’s Super Star (4-1): Ambitiously named runner showed a spark of life when rallying late in debut; half-bro to onetime 2yo champion Declan’s Moon can improve here with added half-furlong, and Trombetta’s go-to rider Pimentel lands here
  2. #8 – Quality Step (5-2): Leatherbury trainee gave decent accounting of himself when runner-up in latest, finishing ahead of #6, but has lost twice to maiden claiming rivals already
  3. #4 – Higher Purpose (8-1): BEL shipper showed speed before tiring in debut; can improve here

Race 2

  1. #1 – Baravelli (5-2): Abbott trainee drops a step in class off an acceptable try vs. MC 40k rivals; blinks go on and second time with Lasix
  2. #6 – My Lord (10-1): Bit of a shot in the dark here, but most rivals have holes in ’em; trainer Hall 1-for-4 in last five years with debut MCL runners
  3. #5 – Cool Man Cletus (2-1): Makes second start off a seven-week break and ran well to be second vs. similar last out; trainer T. Salzman earned first win of ’18 yesterday 

Race 3

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Tiz Emily and Jill (8-5) ***: Outstanding effort last out, in first in three months, when re-bidding after seemingly done and getting up late; expect this runner to be forwardly placed throughout
  2. #7 – Lightnin Fast Girl (9-2): Veteran campaigner gunning for 14th career win; drops ever-so-slightly in class, and pickup of rider V. Carrasco a positive
  3. #1 – Stormy Mama (5-1): Closing sort doesn’t win much — but she did win last time she faced similar rivals, and here she’s dropping from open company

Race 4

  1. #2 – Mae Sai Princess (9-2): Obliterated maiden rivals at first asking, winning off by seven, and runner-up returned to be second again; trainer Dilodovico is 3-for-12 with last-out maiden winners in recent years
  2. #6 – Knock Out Kid (9-5): Midpack runner is the deserving fave here but has lost seven straight, last time failing as the 7-5 choice
  3. #4 – Heningham (3-1): Makes drop to appropriate spot after two middling tries vs. allowance foes

Race 5

  1. #1A – Miss Gray (7-2): Wide-open race — and we mean wiiiiiddddeee open; this miss has already won four times, just missed vs. similar last out
  2. #7 – Greasedlightning (4-1): Rallied to lead two back at similar trip before settling for second; winner that day scratches out of this spot; closing sort will hope for a pace to materialize
  3. #8 – Marlee’s Magic (6-1): Gonzalez trainee galloped two back in most recent try vs. claiming foes, lands in right spot here

Race 6

  1. #6 – Hayne’s Fever (3-1): Good effort last out vs. better on the double raise following two-back win; return to easier spot should set this one up for a big effort; lone caution flag: winless ledger at the trip (0-for-6)
  2. #7 – A True Gentleman (5-1): Grinding sort makes first start off the Gonzalez claim (31% first off the claim); ran second vs. similar in last
  3. #1 – Menacing (7-2): First time off the claim for trainer Gaudet (27% first claim), and she legs up go-to jock Rosado; will need to step forward here

Race 7

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #1 – Rockin Ruth (8-1) ***: Toss the mile try last out, and this runner cuts the exact same profile as the favorite in here, #2; cutback to 6f should be fine, and trainer Cox is 3-for-21 bringing runners back within 10 days
  2. #8 – Splendor Gal (6-1): Second start off a two-month break for this Sillaman trainee; has been a front-runner going long, but cutback to 6f figures to complicate that plan
  3. #2 – Sarah’s Treasure (2-1): Finished just ahead of and just behind #1 in last two outings; winless at the trip


Race 8

  1. #5 – Home Run Maker (9-5): Stalking sort gradually moving through conditions; runner-up from last-out ALW win returned to be second vs. similar
  2. #7 – Eastern Bay (5-1): Runner has done best work when pressing the pace; makes second start off a six-month break here and drops in for the tag
  3. #3 – Shane’s Jewel (3-1): Notable that trainer Ness opts, after City of LRL S. try, to drop this guy in for the tag rather than try N3X company; owns two wins at the trip

Race 9

  1. #3 – Elevated Vision (4-1): Schoenthal trainee flashed talent in winning first two starts but has been off six months after running third on the lawn; will be tough if ready to roll
  2. #5 – Ghoul’s Night Out (9-5): Obviously this horse can win here, but from where we’re sitting, there’s just no way you can take 9-5 on a runner who’s lost this race seven times on the page
  3. #2 – Three Hawk (5-1): Like #3, flashed early talent but returns here from a lengthy vacation — in this case, seven months

Race 10

  1. #3 – Tri Poker (3-1): Keefe trainee gave improved effort in last when hung out wide on the course; drawn much better today — in the three hole, 10 spots closer to the rail than last
  2. #9 – Variance (4-1): Closer drops off a couple of middling tries to level at which he competed on debut; repeat of debut effort might get the money here
  3. #8 – Broadway Trouper (6-1): Even effort with some trip trouble in last vs. better

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday, November 29 at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 438 for 1530 (28.63%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $6.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $22.00
    • R5: $11.20
    • R6: $7.20
    • R7: $9.60
    • R8: $4.60
    • R9: $5.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race 4 double, returning $200.60 on a two-dollar wager (total wagered: $12.00). Also hit the race 8 double, returning $13.80 on a two-dollar wager (total wagered: $18).
  • BEST BET of the Day (152:48-37-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) No Drinking Rules (8th race: 9-2 M/L; 3.20-1 PT) lagged well off the pace and rallied mildly along the inside, finishing fourth while beaten by 13 lengths.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (146:24-27-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Timeless Curls (4th race: 5-1 M/L; 10-1 PT) stalked the pace and surged between horses in the stretch to win by a head, returning $22.00 to WIN, $6.20 to PLACE, and $5.60 to SHOW.

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