The GQ Approach – Laurel November 18

by | Nov 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Something Awesome

Something Awesome ran through the snow to win the Grade 3 General George. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Thursday through Sunday; Post Time 12:30pm EST), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $751
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Not in for a tag - In many states there is a rule where if a horse last raced 6+ months ago, it can be entered in a race at the same claiming level or higher than its last race WITHOUT having the risk of losing the horse via Claim. It's often a positive sign if a trainer chooses to waive the claiming price - and a negative one if s/he runs for the tag.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #2 – Angelinthemorning (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #3 – Untaken (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-4  1, 3, 8 w/ 7, 10, 12 w/ 2, 4 w/ 3, 4, 10 ($27.00)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 2 w/ 5, 7, 8 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the upper-40s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – CLOSED FOR THE SEASON
  • Post time: 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #1 – Transom (2-1): Just missed in last at DEL when winning the speed duel but just failing to contain a closer; show horse and fourth-place finisher from that tilt came back to run in the exacta in follow-ups; first time in Simoff barn
  2. #2 – Kosher Kontract (12-1): Decent try in last before tiring late; cutback to 5 1/2 may aid cause
  3. #10 – Kitchen Soup (6-1): Away five months and must return to debut form here; first time in Lake barn

Race 2

  1. #4 – Mind the Gap (7-5): Couldn’t go with the winner but was well clear of rivals last out in first try on the main track
  2. #5 – Outofthepark (2-1): Jenkins trainee has kept busy and makes third start in less than a month; show effort in Md. Million Nursery was solid; Bandbox gelding makes first try beyond 6f; sire’s best effort came at 7f
  3. #3 – Amino (8-1): Pioneerof the Nile colt makes first start on main track; has been working well enough

Race 3

  1. #3 – More Than Treasure (9-2): Speedster drops from much better company (trainer Gonzalez 28% going allowance-claiming); nearly defeated better two back
  2. #2 – Southern Peach (2-1): 7yo D. Capuano trainee has proven herself a solid sort at this level; will look for stalk-and-pounce journey
  3. #7 – Great Rhythm (6-1): Speedy sort drawn outsider other speed types here; can give improved accounting of herself here

Race 4

  1. #1 – Citi Party (6-1)Sophomore Desert Party filly has been firing a.m. bullets in preparation for career debut; trainer Eppler 5-for-28 starting ’em out in maiden claiming company
  2. #3 – Sophie N (10-1): Return to three back form would make this one a major player in this group
  3. #8 – Gateau St Honore (4-1): Closing drops to right level after solid try vs. MC 25k; makes second start after two-month break

Race 5  

  1. #7 – Journeyonthemove (9-2): Makes first start in Gonzalez barn; has done best work on or pressing the lead, and this sprint contest is a little shy on early types
  2. #12 – Boheme de Lavi (9-5): Aggressive drop on a runner who was a good second last out vs. considerably better; trainer Magee is 39% on similar moves, but size of the drop and four-month break give us a bit of pause; winner on best
  3. #10 – Gimme Kimmy (8-1): Closer doesn’t win much but often is sniffing around at the finish; will be running on late 

Race 6    

  1. #4 – Margie’s Money (3-1): Pretty disastrous trip in last when stumbling twice out of the gate and then steadied for several jumps near the half; should appreciate class relief here and return of rider Russell, who owns a couple wins on this miss
  2. #2 – Miss Jane (6-1): Has been second three times at this level; jockey McCarthy chooses this one over #7 here; blinks on for Ness trainee
  3. #7 – Autobahn Express (6-1): Has been making short work of conditions to date; runner-up from last-out win returned to score on Friday

Race 7

  1. #3 – Untaken (6-1): Didn’t run badly in last when hung out wide throughout; drawn better inside here, and return to four-back form, when runner-up at the Spa, would be good enough to win this heat
  2. #4 – Hell of Afire (5-1): Runner always competes but never wins (3-for-23 career, 0fer 2018), but note solid 4:1-1-1 ledger at this two-turn trip; enticing work pattern readying for first try in three months
  3. #10 – Goiaba (6-1): Been a long time — over a year — since this one faced the starter; trainer Delacour is 11-for-41 bringing horses back off 9-month-plus breaks; last two works are bullets

Race 8

  1. #2 – Angelinthemorning (2-1): Loves the trip and won at this level easily last out
  2. #8 – Late Action (7-2): Has won two straight, the first by 22 (!) lengths; curious to see how her MNR form translates here in return to Geralis barn
  3. #7 – Beatubyachubinose (6-1): Closing sort lands in right spot after middling try vs. better; has competed at this level

Race 9

  1. #7 – Expect Wonderful (5-2): Nice return to action after a year break when graduating last out; second-through-fourth finishers from last-out all finished in the triple in their follow-ups, including the runner-up who graduated
  2. #5 – Off the Bourbon (6-1): Fourth-place finisher from this speedster’s maiden breaker return to win next out; lightly raced runner retains some upside
  3. #8 – Grace Isabella (2-1): Closer ran decently against slightly better two back in most recent dirt try

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, November 17th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 426 for 1475 (28.88%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $7.40
    • R2: $12.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $8.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $10.20
    • R9: $3.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R8-R9 $2 Double returning $32.40 on a $4.00 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (146:48-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Takedown (7th race: 2-1 M/L; 3-5 PT) rated off the pace while four wide and then gave way to finish sixth, beaten by almost 16 lengths.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (140:22-25-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Full of Drama (4th race: 10-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) saved ground but had no bid, finishing eighth.

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