The GQ Approach – Laurel November 17

by | Nov 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Something Awesome

Something Awesome ran through the snow to win the Grade 3 General George. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Thursday through Sunday; Post Time 12:30pm EST), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $1,817
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #3 – Takedown (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 / #3 – Full of Drama (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 4, 8 w/ 2, 5 ($8)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-4  3, 8, 12 w/ 1, 7, 9 w/ 4, 5, 9 w/ 3 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double 1, 3 w/ 4 ($4)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the upper-40s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – CLOSED FOR THE SEASON
  • Post time: 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #8 – Luna Fortis (3-1): KY-bred FTS by Will Take Charge by a Malibu Moon mare whose produced two winners from three previous offspring in just a handful of starts; love the work pattern ending with nice breeze from the gate
  2. #4 – Souper Escape (6-1): Failed miserable as 2-1 Post Time favorite (5th by 12) going 6 panels; adds blinkers and a couple more furlongs to redeem herself for deep-pocket connections 
  3. #7 – China Cat (9-5): Found Lrl MSW more her speed in second start compared to Sar in debut but settled to be bridesmaid despite an 81 BRIS# which is tops in here among those who have raced

Race 2

  1. #5 – Hidden Bamboo (6-5): Seems insane to be a Chalk-Eating Weasel here as this gelding has won just once when sent off as bettors choice in last 9 consecutive starts; foes lack early speed to make it 1 for 10
  2. #2 – Great Nation (10-1): Second start with blinkers and drops a notch while getting back on a fast track; might behoove rider to be quicker form the gate as he was in maiden score
  3. #4 – Ticker Tape Parade (8-1): Has finished fourth in last 8 of 10 tries (hint: bottom wheel in Super) while just 1 for 20 lifetime but first start for new barn and at 6 furlongs

Race 3

  1. #2 – Floating By (9-2): Exits turf try when rank yet got SHOW purse vs. open $20k claimers; faces tougher group than the $12,500 claimers she destroyed two back here at today’s distance but looks like lone speed
  2. #7 – Prevailing Party (10-1): Didn’t get much out of the sprint though chart caller noted “late interest”; that was her first race in 4-months and now gets a more familiar distance
  3. #5 – Pretty Enuff (9-5): Been an ATM since arriving in C. Gonzalez barn 5 races back; might be a closing sprinter as she was OTB in only previous start going one mile

Race 4

  1.   #3 – Full of Drama (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Adds blinkers, turf-to-dirt and drops a level while retaining services of K. Davis who has won with 10 for 30 runners for trainer H. McMahon over the past year
  2. #12 – Weekends for Work (5-1): PA-bred FTS by El Padrino out of a Not for Love mare for trainer J. Robb who places his runners where they can be successful first time out (13%)
  3. #8 – American Star (12-1): Most experienced of these 2-year-olds with 5 starts, makes second one with blinkers as first didn’t go so well (7th by 14 v. better) but let’s blame the off track

Race 5  

  1. #7 – The Catmancan (9-2): Fits this “NW4L OR non-winner in 6 months” condition perfectly as this 5-time winner last got to the Winners’ Circle with 5 days of eligibility to spare
  2. #1 – Promote (3-1): Exits a pair of ITM finishes versus better (open $8k Claimers), one on dirt and latest on turf, this one will be third after 5-month layoff
  3. #9 – Mountain Cry (7-2): First start off leading trainer C. Gonzalez claim who wins 33% of the time in this scenario (45 from 136 starters)

Race 6    

  1. #5 – Brahms Romp (7-2): Broke GQ’s heart in latest when came up a head short as BEST BET while carried out by winner yet no inquiry nor objection; now is not the time to jump ship as trainer J. Ness and A. Suarez have been hitting on all cylinders of late 
  2. #9 – Wildly Clever (20-1): Needs more than 6 furlongs to have a shot so disregarding dull performance on multi-level drop in latest to this level; added distance helps to make him a threat
  3. #4 – Roman Warrior (10-1): An ugly 0 for 11 at Lrl and 0 for 10 at this distance but drops back to level where he can compete; third less than one-length behind top pick two back following stumble

Race 7

  1. #3 – Takedown (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Back to reality and among foes this 3-year-old should handle; took time off after chasing stakes company peers unsuccessfully; latest was first try versus elders which is always a challenge; this one came up a bit softer
  2. #8 – Menacing (6-1): Could be a trainer L. Gaudet Exacta as this lesser half of the uncoupled entry makes first start for barn after $16k claim and makes obligatory step up to ensure this event “went” for stablemate 
  3. #7 – Tattooed (10-1): Made ill-advised first start after 7+ month layoff in MD Million Classic; uh yeah let’s forget that one and point to races earlier in the year as both wins came at this distance

Race 8

  1. #3 – Workaholic (8-5): KY shipper makes fifth career start at as many different venues; is a head short of being 3 for 3 on a fast track and her worst BRIS# of the three is second only to #8 in here
  2. #1 – Belial (4-1): This gray gal appears to have a bright future as she was second best in MD Million Lassie following the same fate to next out, stakes winning stablemate Congrats Gal; should relish the added distance
  3. #8 – Olive Kat (3-1): Giving her a pass on a sloppy track in latest when failed as Post Time favorite which followed an eye-popping maiden score earning an 88 BRIS#; outfit turns to F. Lynch to make amends

Race 9

  1. #4 – Joy Drive (8-5): Returns to the Land of Pleasant living after a half dozen tries at NYRA tracks, mostly against better open claimers than the assembled foes in this event at his favorite distance
  2. #6 – Ten Hut (7-2): Game gelding gives 110% every start but cut back to sprint (8:1-3-0) isn’t ideal for this Closer who seems to take 5 furlongs to get out of 2nd gear but catches a softer group
  3. #3 – Apolodorodedamasco (6-1): Got the ultimate equipment change (gelded) after being claimed 45 days ago by trainer M. Gorham; adds blinkers and gets S. Russell (21% w/ Gorham at Lrl)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, November 16th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 425 for 1466 (28.99%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $3.00
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: $6.00
    • R4: $17.80
    • R5: $7.20
    • R6: $3.40
    • R7: $3.00
    • R8: $8.40
    • R9: $16.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R3-R4 $2 Double returning $51.00 on a $18 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (145:48-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Blow the Whistle (5th race: 2-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) relaxed off the dueling leaders, came four wide nearing the quarter-pole, battled for the lead before pulling clear late to win by three paying $7.20 to WIN, $3.60 to PLACE, and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (139:22-25-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Mount Travers (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) circled the turn to be in contention nearing the lane but tired to finish sixth while beaten almost 15 lengths.

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