The GQ Approach – Laurel November 16

by | Nov 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,933
  • Super High 5: $3,367
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Jockey/Trainer Combo - Take advantage of the statistics provided with the Past Performances, which give these stats for the current meet and over the past year; some trainer and jocks win at inordinately high rates.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #8 – Blow the Whistle (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #11 – Mount Travers (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 3 $2 Double 4, 5, 6 w/ 4, 5, 10 ($18.00)
  • Race 6 $0.50 Pick-3 3, 9, 11 w/ 1, 2, 3 w/ 2, 4, 7 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the mid-40s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 5th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD / Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m. EST

Race 1

  1. #3 — Bye Bye Blues (3-1): Making good use of debut spot, when she ran for $8,000; lightly raced sort has been in the exacta in seven of eight and is two-for-two on off tracks
  2. #10 – Truly Hot (8-1): Like to see trainer Eppler protect this one in second start off $7500 claim; top local pilot McCarthy remains aboard
  3. #8 — Party Rock (5-1): Outer post a positive for speedy type who has bested similar 

Race 2

  1. #4 – Rosy’s Rainbow (9-5): Trainer Sillaman wheels this one back on eight days rest; solid try in last when chasing gate-to-wire winner
  2. #2 – Nightmare (6-1): Infrequent winner drops from N1X company; cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit
  3. #1 – Cocktail Waitress (5-2): Game try in last for Gonzalez trainee who sports a 3:1-1-1 ledger on off tracks; worse than third only once in eight career tries

Race 3 

  1. #1 – Colonel Sharp (3-1): Not too bothered by defeat in last on the lawn for this formful sort who won the Md. Coalition Stakes at the Big T three back
  2. #3 – Something Awesome (7-5): Multiple graded winner owns a class edge on these but has been away six months since last-place finish in G3 Pimlico Special; work tab suggests trainer Corrales has longer bouts in mind, and this runner is nominated to G1 Clark at CD on 11/23
  3. #6 – Sonny Inspired (8-1): Hard hitter ran poorly in last on the grass after trip troubles; return to better form puts this guy in the mix

Race 4 

  1. #3 – Hey Mabel (4-1): Finds right spot in lucky 13th career start; Prado back in the irons
  2. #12 – Donna’s Delight (15-1): Blinks back on after one-race experiment without; has been second or third in last three tries vs. similar while wearing shades
  3. #5 – Shall Try (12-1): Hillwood homebred drops to bottom; lone dirt try not out of range here

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #8 – Blow the Whistle (2-1) ***: Has thrashed N2X rivals at PEN in last two starts; veteran loves the flat mile trip and an off track (five-for-seven on off tracks)
  2. #1 – Etruscan (9-5): MTO entrant got a big Beyer for show effort in last against $12,500 starters
  3. #12 — Sebray (15-1): Just missed at 34-1 in Md. Million starter last out; that’s been a productive heat, as four to run back have a 4:1-2-1 ledger; will be running on late

Race 6

  1. #5 – Dah Philly (7-5): Enjoy the tasty chalk! Matz trainee drops from $40k level after credible third-place finish
  2. #1 – Colton’s Horseplay (5-1): Ran ok last out vs. special weight rivals at CT; may need to drop one more tick to find winning spot
  3. #2 — Empire Panther (3-1): Drops back to level where she was second two back; in and out form gives pause

Race 7

  1. #2 – Rumor Ridge (9-2): Makes third start off a two-month break and enters following a solid try vs. $260k Delacour trainee; McCarthy remains aboard
  2. #7 – Miss Jak (8-5): Last two are stellar for Gonzalez trainee
  3. #1 – Baccarat Fashion (6-1): Has been second in both tries vs. winners

Race 8 

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #11 – Mount Travers (5-1) ***: Speightstown colt has shown promise in two starts; blinks go on for a runner making second start on Lasix; fourth-place finisher from last, Follow the Dog, ran first and second in two follow-up tries in stakes company
  2. #2 — Invigorous (5-1): Was second to subsequent G1 Hopeful winner Mind Control in debut; toss the last two (one on synthetic, one in which he ditched his jock) and you have a runner who fits nicely here
  3. #1 – Lippi Lorenzo (12-1): Solid try last out when fourth in Md. Million Nursery, and winner just missed in stakes follow-up; rider Pino must have him in the action early

Race 9 

  1. #3 – Mythos (4-1): Sillaman claimback romped last time he was at this level; Carrasco in the irons a good sign
  2. #8 – Pleiadian (9-2): Magee claimback has won two straight and three of four; must contend with challenging outside post
  3. #5 – Tonbo (6-1): Bested open $5k claimers two back; first time in the Farrior barn

Yesterday’s News

  • Thursday racing was canceled. On Sunday, November 11th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 421 for 1457 (28.89%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $2.60
    • R2: $8.80
    • R3: $6.20
    • R4: $4.80
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.40
    • R7: $4.40
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $4.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the Race 2 Pick 3, returning $23.50 on a $9.00 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (144:47-34-14; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Celtic Treasure (4th race: 5-1 M/L; 4.80-1 PT) stalked along the inside, encountering some trouble on the turn, ran on willingly between runners to earn the show, paying $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (138:22-26-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Free to Trump (2nd race: 8-1 M/L; 17.90-1 PT) broke a step slow and could offer only a mild response to finish fifth.

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