The GQ Approach – Laurel November 15

by | Nov 15, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,933
  • Super High 5: $3,367
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Shippers - Not all shippers win, because many trainers will enter/ship two runners to make the trip worthwhile; be keen to find if a trainer ships in two, to determine which one is “live."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #5 – Princess Tiznow (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #4 – Cousin Jimmy (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 3 $2 Double 4, 5, 6 w/ 4, 5, 10 ($18.00)
  • Race 6 $0.50 Pick-3 3, 9, 11 w/ 1, 2, 3 w/ 2, 4, 7 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Wintry mix
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 6th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD / Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m. EST

Race 1

  1. #6 — Offerhecantrefuse (2-1): Trombetta trainee finds lowest level off decent try at PEN chasing 3-5 Godolphin-owned runner
  2. #3 – Trion Wings (10-1): Drops to spot where he competed two back; last-place finisher from most recent outing won MC 25k in follow-up
  3. #10 — Snidely (5-2): Trainer Engleheart winning at a 41% clip locally and is 2-for-4 shipping down horses to run in maiden claiming events

Race 2

  1. #1A – One More Tom (9-2): Trainer Sillaman has a solid record first off the claim, and horses shipping from KY tracks have experienced success here; was well clear of rest in most recent
  2. #7 – Microscale (10-1): Lightly raced sort still has upside
  3. #5 – I’ve Gotta Plan (15-1): Scratches of obvious contenders move this one up; decent try when holding second vs. lesser last out

Race 3 

  1. #5 – Princess Tiznow (9-5): Has been very competitive vs. these sorts at PEN; five-time winner at the trip
  2. #6 – Dance Queen (5-1): Will look for reprise of front-running last-out score
  3. #4 – Lady Terp (2-1): Has been very competitive at this level, but expecting that #5 will get first run at the leader

Race 4 

  1. #5 – Self Start (5-1): Ran into trouble in last — head turned at the start, climbing a bit early — but ran on willingly to earn the place spot; cleaner trip yields a W here
  2. #10 – Stomp Dance (2-1): Trainer Magee scores at a 26% clip dropping runners from allowance to claiming company
  3. #4 – Hot Mic (3-1): Made what appeared to be a winning move in last but hung in the lane; not sure additional half-furlong does him any favors

Race 5

  1. #7 – Art of Listening (5-2): Best effort came on off track in debut
  2. #9 – Doctor Leo J (5-1): Ran OK vs. similar on debut; addition of journeyman rider Chiappe can help
  3. #1 — Vicar’s Chalice (12-1): Improved effort in last, and added ground may help; makes second start off a three-month break

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Polite Pearl (2-1): MTO Speedster dusted similar in last; trainer Patterson has preposterously good numbers
  2. #3 – D J’s Favorite (5-2): Trainer Rice has made plenty of hay shipping runners down from NY; Union Rags filly was narrowly second to choice in here three back
  3. #9 — Mrs. Ramona G. (7-2): Engleheart trainee makes second start off an eight-month break; lone dirt try was credible

Race 7

  1. #3 – Saratoga Bob (5-2): Enters off a win in the Md. Million Classic and broke his maiden at this 7f trip; possible cause for concern: runners out of the Classic have a 4:0-1-0 mark in follow-up races
  2. #1 – Chief of Staff (6-1): McMahon trainee has won at this level before, three back; owns a win at the trip
  3. #2 – Ballivor (12-1): Second start off a three-month break for a runner who seems stuck at the level; best efforts would contend here

Race 8 

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #4 – Cousin Jimmy (10-1) ***: In a race where everybody wants the front, this guy’ll be running on late; makes third start off a break and shows one fast work since last try
  2. #7 — Forced (2-1): Deserving chalk ran a good one in last and shows a bullet work since then — but must contend with other front-running types here
  3. #2 – Trusting Friend (9-2): Gonzalez trainee fishes in deeper waters after three straight scores vs. lesser

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – The Great Casby (5-2): Has run two good ones for trainer Ness; rider McCarthy lands here over #1
  2. #4 – Twin Valor (3-1): Has been in the money in five of six tries on off tracks; drops into claiming company after several failures to take N2X allowance
  3. #8 – Prime Time Man (8-1): Defeated lesser two back in most recent dirt try; has won last two off-the-turf tilts

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, November 11th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 421 for 1457 (28.89%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $2.60
    • R2: $8.80
    • R3: $6.20
    • R4: $4.80
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.40
    • R7: $4.40
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $4.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the Race 2 Pick 3, returning $23.50 on a $9.00 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (144:47-34-14; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Celtic Treasure (4th race: 5-1 M/L; 4.80-1 PT) stalked along the inside, encountering some trouble on the turn, ran on willingly between runners to earn the show, paying $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (138:22-26-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Free to Trump (2nd race: 8-1 M/L; 17.90-1 PT) broke a step slow and could offer only a mild response to finish fifth.

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