The GQ Approach – Laurel November 11

by | Nov 11, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,410
  • Super High 5: $1,159
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #2 – Celtic Treasure (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 2 / #6 – Free to Trump (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 $2 Double 6, 8, 9 w/ 3, 6 ($12.00)
  • Race 2 $0.50 Pick-3 1, 3, 6 w/ 1, 3, 7 w/ 2, 7 ($9.00)
  • Race 8 $2 Double 4, 5, 7 w/ 1, 3, 5 ($18.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, high in the low 40s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 5th, 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – OFF
  • Post time: 12:30 p.m. EST

Race 1

  1. #6 — Johnny Banks (8-5): First time in the Gonzalez barn for a runner claimed from Churchill Downs; Pimentel in the irons a positive sign
  2. #9 – Monumental Vending (10-1): Finds proper spot — at last, in 11th try — after credible effort two levels higher; makes second start off a seven-week break
  3. #8 — Road to Oz (9-2): Ran evenly while sprinting on dirt in debut; added ground can help

Race 2

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #6 – Free to Trump (8-1) ***: Has been closing in recent efforts, which may be the winning formula in a race with plentiful early speed types
  2. #3 – Tambora (5-2): Tries to make amends after disappointing in last; best efforts have come when on the engine – but he’s not the only one that’s true of
  3. #1 – Vineyard (3-1): Smoked an opening quarter in 21 3/5 in last, then disappeared from sight; switches back to rider Gomez, who won with this one

Race 3 

  1. #3 – Sip of Sunshine (7-5): Can’t say we’re ecstatic about short odds on this runner, but she projects as main speed in here and has gone gate-to-wire two straight; gets fourth different jock in as many starts
  2. #1 – Nana’s Shoes (12-1): Takes appropriate drop after getting thrashed by better; rider McCarthy a positive sign on day after he won four; should be running on late
  3. #7 – Knock Out Kid (5-2): Thrashed by #3 in here two back but follow-up effort, when four in Md. Million Lassie, was best of career — and accomplished on just six days rest

Race 4 

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Celtic Treasure (5-1) ***: Respectable debut when fourth in maiden special weight at DEL; runner-up that day returned to graduate at Gulfstream West; adds Lasix here
  2. #7 – By the Sey Shore (3-1): Connections seems to like this one better now after solid debut try, as they protect him from claimbox; go-to rider Pimentel stays aboard
  3. #11 – Vee’s Super Star (4-1): Some of the Super Ninety Nine offspring have been running, and this one’s a half to onetime 2yo champion Declan’s Moon

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Artful Splatter (8-1): Sire Bandbox has hit the ground running; half-sis Renaissance Rosie has won 14 times (!); has been working well enough towards debut
  2. #10 – Kateandlillian (10-1): Daughter of Run Away and Hide has three sibs who won at two; trainer Schoenthal doesn’t win often with debut 2yos (4 for 50), but he makes ’em count: all four winners were at least 9-1, and he has a positive ROI
  3. #13 — Kentucky Smooth (15-1): Showed speed but tired in debut vs. similar — but with good reason: T. Salzman trainee got loose before the race and ran off for a quarter-mile before being caught; can improve here

Race 6

  1. #5 – Calvi (3-1): Winner of last returned to take a PA-bred allowance in follow-up; needs bounceback effort
  2. #2 – So Good (5-2): Has competed vs. similar, but it’s tough to take short odds on a runner who’s 0-for-15 on a fast main track
  3. #4 — Chinquapin (5-1): Not a lot of speed types in here, so this one will likely look to try to steal on the front end; has tired in previous one-mile tries

Race 7

  1. #6 – Adulator (7-2): Big effort in last when surviving a lengthy speed duel, then fending off the late runners to prevail; #4 Saratoga Jack figures to be only real speed rival in here
  2. #5 – Imperative (12-1): Eight-year-old is just shy of $3 million in earnings; last couple aren’t good, but both were in G1 company, one on turf; has been working with Dalmore of late, and that runner just missed in Small S. on Saturday card
  3. #2 – Bonus Points (9-5): 2017 Md. Million Classic winner didn’t draw into this year’s running, and he scratched out of yesterday’s Small S. for this spot; I dunno, it just doesn’t feel like a vote of confidence to me…

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Angelinas Star (4-1): Good enough effort last out when second vs. similar, and winner returned to score again; can lead or stalk as situation demands
  2. #5 — Final Fear (3-1): Eppler trainee shortens up to distance at which she lodged only victory; makes third start off a two-month break
  3. #7 – Towson (8-1): MTO entrant drops to appropriate spot

Race 9

  1. #5 – Feelin Foxie (5-2): Gaudet barn keeps churning out winners, and though this miss hasn’t won on the main track, her three tries compete with these
  2. #1 – On the Hop (9-5): Sophomore owns six wins already, four at the trip, and just thrashed similar in latest; late lead change in last a slight concern
  3. #3 – Gingeresk (5-1): Never involved and then pulled up in last as favorite vs. similar; has beaten these, and inclined to see last as an anomaly

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, November 9th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 418 for 1448 (28.87%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $4.40
    • R2: $27.00
    • R3: $2.60
    • R4: $4.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.20
    • R7: $21.40
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $10.00
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none was hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (143:47-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Congrats Gal (3rd race: 8-5 M/L; 3-5 PT) stalked the early pace while three wide, took command near the head of the lane, and was ridden out to win by almost seven, paying $2.60 to WIN, $2.20 to PLACE, and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (138:22-26-17; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Dalmore (9th race: 20-1 M/L; 9-1 PT) was away quickly to grab the front, set a measured pace early, was challenged for the front at the head of the lane, battled gamely, and just failed to hang on while remaining clear to hold the place, returning $10.80 to PLACE, and $5.40 to SHOW.

Check out...