The GQ Approach – Laurel November 3

by | Nov 2, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $21,663
  • Super High 5: $208
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ'S Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10 / #5 – Queen Francis (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #8 – Cherokee Fire (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double 5, 10, 12 w/ 2, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3 1, 3, 4 w/ 1, 3, 5 w/ 5, 7, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 8: $0.50 Pick-4 2, 4, 6 w/ 2, 3, 4 w/ 5 w/ 2, 4, 7 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny; highs in the upper-50s
  • Races scheduled for the turf: 1st, 5th, 7th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

Special 1st race Post Time is 11:45am EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Top Hat City (6-1): The waters get deeper after a pair of runner-up finishes versus lesser on the synthetic at Pid, but has back class with a 93 turf BRIS#, albeit earned last year 
  2. #8 – Alkasser (9-2): Shortest sprint distance to date for this IRE-bred; toss off the turf in latest here, his first and likely last of his brief career
  3. #3 – Red Clay Road (12-1): Cuts back to a turf sprint for just second time in career; 5th in initial try was against better and had traffic troubles
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #12-Mr. Fixit (6-5); #10-Do Yahwanna Salsa (3-1); #5-Self Start (8-1)

Race 2

  1. #2 – Alive (7-2): Gelded since last start; while winless at Lrl (6:0-2-2), gets best chance on drop and in for tag which is a typical move for these connections who aren’t too patient with underachieving runners
  2. #7 – Legend’s Hope (5-1): Had no business racing in MD Million Classic when 6th at 33-1; hard to endorse on top with a 2 for 34 career record but fits with these
  3. #1 – Sacred Walk (8-5): Easily beat $16kN2L foes in first start after trainer C. Gonzalez $10k claim out of maiden breaker; that was a big step forward, might regress in this one

Race 3

  1. #3 – Dixie Do Good (5-2): Pedigree doesn’t suggest this distance but based on this late running style, she could be more than just a Closing Sprinter
  2. #1 – Coqueta (2-1): Big mystery in latest when dropped to this level and never picked up a hoof with T. McCarthy in saddle for the first time and doesn’t return
  3. #4 – Kim’s Pet (9-2): Second start with blinkers often results in positive ROI; running lines in all four sprints indicate she’ll relish the stretch out to one-mile

Race 4

  1. #5 – Awake the Day (7-2): An unlikely winner in first start in nearly 13-months but was DQ’d to second; wheels back rather quickly and drops to bottom level
  2. #1 – Hanalei Sunset (12-1): Couldn’t hang early with open nickel claimers so jock just took the foot off the gas; back in with beaten claimers where she most recently was third by a neck
  3. #3 – Tiz Emily and Jill (3-1): Delicate 6-year-old mare takes a couple months off after every couple starts; makes first start since Aug. 3 on a multi-level drop to lowest level of her career

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1.   #4 – Eastport (3-1): Makes just third career start on turf but showed a liking for it at Del when losing by a neck versus $20kN2L; capable turf rider A. Cintron will be 7th different jock in last 7 starts
  2.   #8 – English Tudor (6-1): Decent effort in latest when getting SHOW purse in off the turf event at Del; always makes presence known in late stages of turf races but needs to improve to get second career win in 18th start 
  3. #13 – Barton Holt (12-1): Third start since 17-month layoff but first two came off the turf; expect to see jockey J. Rose with his only mount on the card, to try a gate-to-wire score
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #7-Huyana (3-1); #10-Bay Hill (7-2); #5-Chinquapin (15-1)

Race 6

  1. #5 – Down in the Holler (5-1): Proved that one-mile is a bit too far as he gave up a clear lead in mid-stretch in latest at this same level; cut back to 6 furlongs look like a moving move for trainer K. Decker
  2. #2 – Hidden Bamboo (5-2): On a streak of 8 consecutive races sent off as favorite yet only has one win to show for it; appears this one could be favorite once again… and fail once again 
  3.  #8 – Andrew’s Game (9-2): Broke maiden on fast track at Ind in debut which was three back; either didn’t care for slop and/or class level in last two

Race 7 IF ON THE TURF

  1.   #8 – Cherokee Fire (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Have faith in owner/trainer D. Souder that this gal can run on turf, just not going two turns as she did in lone turf try here in May, stopping after 5 furlongs
  2.   #1 – Market Money (3-1): Draw a line through latest which came off the turf, which she once again didn’t care for the “good” main surface; gate-to-wire is only way she knows how to win
  3. #12 – Marie from Parie (4-1): Two bridesmaid finishes in last two at this level following a nose victory in her most recent turf start; never OTB (3:2-0-1) on turf as all have been at this distance
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #9-Queen of Checkmate (7-2); #11-Holiday Magician (5-1); #4-Rein Supreme (15-1)

Race 8

  1.  #4 – To Be Honest (5-1): Might turn out to be a prudent $5k claim by trainer K. Magee as this 3-year-old filly has been an ATM this year (11:2-3-2) earning nearly $70k but stays at nickel level
  2.  #2 – Jilted Runaway (7-2): Continues to take advantage of condition for 3 y.o. OR N3L as she’s visited the Winners’ Circle 5-times; drops from $12,500b level when passed faders to get SHOW
  3.  #6 – Child’s Play (9-5): Appears to be lone speed in this contest; willing to forgive latest at Tim which came just 8 days after a huge gate-to-wire effort; caution flag should be waving based on this drop

Race 9

  1. #3 – Ghoul’s Night Out (2-1): Post-Halloween hunch play has been tricking backers, failing to win in last five outings when sent off as low-priced second choice in 4 of them
  2. #4 – Irish Access (3-1): Exits fourth-place effort in restricted stakes; cut back may not be the right move but needs a race and should get a honest pace to close into
  3. #2 – Velocita Brillante (10-1): Been getting minor shares behind top pick at this level in last two while each have become Key races; rider switch might help shake her Fourth-place Blues

Race 10

  1.  #5 – Queen Francis (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Speedster never got early lead as she is accustomed to in latest, which caused her to throw in the towel against better open claimers than these; will only face pressure from one other (#3)
  2.  #3 – No More Excuses (5-2): Had an excuse in MD Million Starter, her first start after being claimed for $7,500; the fact 7 furlongs is at least one panel too far based on her past conditioning
  3.  #7 – Southern Peach (2-1): Got the win versus open nickel claimers but is was a struggle; been a while since she’s won back-to-back, so she’s a vulnerable favorite who now will win easily (LOL)

Race 11 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Skole (9-2): Forgettable debut on Del grass as he faded to 7th when sent off 9-5 favorite; trainer A. Delacour wins with 27% of runners making second start
  2. #2 – Overleveraged (4-1): KY-bred FTS by Fed Biz out of a Bernardini mare whose only other progeny is 0 for 3 but family is filled with turf runners; trainer L. Rice gets 19% of her 2-year-olds to Winners’ Circle
  3. #6 – Street Treasure (20-1): Has lost all four races by double-digits but made a promising early run in lone turf start but weakened late going two turns; cutting back to sprint seems like a good move
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #4-Outofthepark (5-2); #2-Overleveraged (4-1); #7-Win Win Win (5-1)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday November 2nd at Laurel had 8 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 397 for 1400 (28.36%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $5.80
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $15.00
    • R5: $7.00
    • R6: $8.80
    • R7: $3.40
    • R8: $8.40
    • R9: $10.60
    • R10: $4.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (138:43-34-13; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Brahm’s Romp (6th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) stalked the pace from the inside, bid leaving the three eighths pole, rounded the far turn off the rail, was carried out through the upper stretch, reached the poll of the winner in late stretch but ran out of ground to miss by a head and returned $3.80 to PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (133:21-25-16; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Gray Granite (3rd race: 15-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) four wide on both turns, weakened to finish fifth.

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