The GQ Approach – Laurel November 2

by | Nov 2, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $19,269
  • Super High 5: $1,162
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #1 – Brahms Romp (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #11 – Gray Granite (12-1)

Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 3: $0.50 Pick-3 11, 13 w/ 1, 8, 11 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($9.00)
  • Race 6: $0.50 Pick-3 1, 6 w/ 3, 4, 9 w/ 6, 7, 12 ($4.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Afternoon thunderstorms, high of 70
  • Projected track conditions: fast main track, yielding to soft turf for early races, OFF the turf for races 8 and 9

Race 1 is on the turf

  1. #10 – Fed Up Fired Up (9-2): Pre-election hunch play? Barr trainee caught a rugged group in last turf tilt, as three of five who ran back on turf emerged victorious; should find this company more congenial
  2. #7 – Meddybemps (7-2): First time in the McMahon barn after nearly besting similar at DEL in last
  3. #9 – Secret Temple (6-1): PRX shipper has been very competitive at this level

Race 2

  1. #1 – Fashion Faux Pas (3-1): Delacour trainee hasn’t made any a.m. missteps, as last six dirt breezes have been the fastest of the day; Flatter filly is half to graded stakes-placed Ire
  2. #5 – Needs Supervision (5-2): Good debut effort at PEN, parlaying a good trip into a runner-up effort while well clear of the rest
  3. #8 – Indigo Queen (4-1): First two tries are middling but trainer Gaudet keeps her in special weight company; showing four works since last

Race 3 is on the turf

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #11 – Gray Granite (12-1) ***: Prior turf try was better than it looks; runner was pinched back at the break, green and a bit rank early before making steady progress outside during middle portions of race, was wrapped up late; improved effort likely today against lesser
  2. #13 – Crazy Magic (7-2): Wouldn’t be a surprise if he galloped here when dropping after acceptable efforts vs. special weight rivals
  3. #8 – Trappe Rocket (20-1): Hasn’t been a win-early family, but several of this guy’s sibs have been useful turfers

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Tree Shaker (5-1): Figures to want a stalking position from inner post and has won last two turf tries when not hung with an outer post; McBurney and Boyce have had success
  2. #8 – Berliner (12-1): Corrales trainee takes major drop from two-other-than company in second in trainer’s barn
  3. #11 – Intrepid Citizen (3-1): Took on similar two back in effort to shake ’18 winless blues and couldn’t quite get it done; trainer GCap and rider Toledo have solid record together and hugely positive ROI

Race 5

  1. #8 – Visual Effect (2-1): Has seen better company in recent efforts and competed willingly
  2. #7 – One Step Closer (8-1): Not totally sold that added ground is a great idea, but trainer Magee and rider Cedeno hitting at 43 percent
  3. #1 – Rare Candy (3-1): Hard to endorse in top spot, as trainer Gonzalez just 1-for-21 off similar layoffs, but note that he puts go-to rider Torres up

Race 6

  1. *** BEST BET #1 – Brahms Romp (3-1) ***: Terrific effort in last when part of early vanguard that slapped down a 22 2/5 second second quarter, and this one stayed on to the end; one of pace rivals returned to win next out
  2. #6 – Mucho Mas Grande (5-2): Acceptable effort vs. better in last and should appreciate dropping to this spot
  3. #4 – Federal Walk (4-1): Dusted never-won-two rivals like a good thing when loose on the lead in last

Race 7

  1. #3 – Rare Eagle (4-1): Sillaman trainee ran competitively vs. similar last out in first off the claim, and rival who bested him scratched out here
  2. #9 – Daystrike (15-1): Makes second start off a two-month break and finds an easier spot to do it; had a bit of trouble in last
  3. #4 – Here’s to Mike (6-1): Trainer Magee scratches favorite out but leaves this one in… hmmm…

Race 8 is OFF the turf

  1. #12 – Baccarat Fashion (4-1): Lightly raced sort has given solid accountings of herself to date
  2. #6 – In Jail (12-1): Makes third start off a six-week break and has competed with similar
  3. #7 – Majestic Won (5-1): Showed good speed before tiring in latest vs. BEL allowance foes

Race 9 is OFF the turf

  1. #7 – What What What (3-1): Makes first start in Farrior barn after trainer grabbed her out of 16k claimer at KEE; likes this short trip
  2. #12 – Trusty Roll (5-2): Main-track-only entrant won a second-level allowance at DEL in last and figures to be in the hunt here
  3. #4 – Bye Bye Blues (5-2): Adios Charlie filly has won four of seven in her brief career, and trainer D. Capuano has made good use of starter conditions after she debuted for sale for $8k

Race 10

  1. #4 – Angelinthemorning (5-2): Gonzalez trainee has been steadily moving through conditions; go-to rider Torres gets the call
  2. #8 – Value Added (4-1): Schoenthal trainee should appreciate return to lesser company
  3. #7 – Megstone (8-1): Last was a mess, but this miss should give a better showing back in against lesser

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, October 27, had 6 winners from 9 races, (3 top picks in bold).
  • Top Selections are 395 for 1390 (28.42%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $3.20
    • R3: $5.60
    • R4: $3.80
    • R5: $5.40
    • R6: $6.20
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $8.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R4 Pick 3, which returned $8.20 for a 50-cent wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (137:43-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Under a Spell (7th race: 5-2 M/L; 4-5 PT) was up close early, two wide on the turn for home, but had no answers in the drive, finishing sixth, beaten by 3 1/2 lengths.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (132:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Lubricus Soror (9th race: 6-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) was shuffled back early, hugged the rail around the turn, came outside, but had no sustained bid and finished fifth.

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