The GQ Approach – Laurel November 1

by | Nov 1, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $15,448
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #2 – Under a Spell (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #1 – Lubricus Soror (6-1)

Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 4: $0.50 Pick-3 2, 9, 14 w/ 5, 6, 8 w/ 2, 4, 6 ($13.50)
  • Race 7: $0.50 Pick-3 2 w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 1, 5, 12 ($4.50)
  • Race 8: $2 Double 3, 6 w/ 1, 5, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly sunny; high in the 70s
  • Projected track conditions: fast main track, good turf

Race 1 is on the turf

  1. #10 – Asset Allocation (5-1): Gets back to best game on the green stuff here after a pair of messy off-the-turf starts; runner-up from last turf try won first allowance and then LRL Dash S. in next two
  2. #12 – Zen’s Land (8-5): Trainer Ness willing to let this grass specialist go for cheap as turf season nears end
  3. #6 – My Own Lane (8-1): Isn’t far removed from defeating better; must return to best form, but drop in class a positive

Race 2

  1. #3 – Oy to the World (2-1): Drops a step after even effort on debut; can improve here
  2. #7 – Top Hat Warrior (9-5): First time in McMahon barn; runner just missed twice vs. similar at DEL, with two back winner repeating vs. better
  3. #5 – Trion Wings (4-1): Just missed at MC25k level two back in a race that produced two next-out winners

Race 3

  1. #7 – Lady Vicki (4-1): Ultra-game effort in last to secure second straight win after giving up lead, getting bumped in mid-stretch, then finding more
  2. #1 – Love’s Legend (8-5): Steady sort returns to main track; winner from two-back show effort tried stakes company in follow-up before winning ALW
  3. #4 – Sarah’s Treasure (7-2): Trouble line in last but still rallied willingly against similar; hot rider Pimentel back in the irons a plus

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Smile for Eternity (5-2): Has kept plus company while trying N2X and stakes foes among last three starts; little bit easier group here may help
  2. #14 – Wet Your Whistle (4-1): Should be running on late on the cutback; turf form competes with these
  3. #9 – Thunder’s Honor (6-1): Makes third start off a layoff and gets back to the lawn where he’s done best work

Race 5

  1. #5 – Any Darn Day (5-1): Somebody’s got to win here… right? Egan trainee can improve in second off a short break
  2. #8 – Via Castagna (3-1): Has been inching forward and drops a half-step here off a third-place finish
  3. #6 – Petion Night (7-2): Huge improvement in last – the result of first time on the turf, or merely the yearlong break? Note that new trainer Ness switches back to main track here

Race 6

  1. #6 – Olympic Village (7-2): Good enough debut when rallying for fifth despite running greenly in lane; Trombetta trainee galloped out past ’em all
  2. #2 – Into Temptation (5-2): Can’t leave a Delacour-trained $850k auction purchase off your tickets, now can you? Into Mischief colt is bred to be a beast on the synthetic – for whatever that’s worth – but sibs’ main-track efforts aren’t bad either
  3. #4 – Candy Store (6-1): Motion-trained debut runner is the first foal out of a stakes-winning Flower Alley mare

Race 7

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Under a Spell (5-2) ***: Goldberg trainee caught a beast on debut, running behind Magnum Moon, who won four straight, culminating with G1 Ark. Derby triumph; graduated last out, and runner-up Positivist graduated here the other day
  2. #10 – Toe Curlin’ Kiss (15-1): Lightly raced sort cruised last out in first in Barr barn; Centeno and Barr hitting at nearly 30 percent
  3. #9 – Southern Wild (12-1): Showed little in two PRX tries, but this Rubley trainee is 2-for-2 locally

Race 8

  1. #3 – Abbo (9-2): Union Rags filly gets major class relief after trip to KEE to run in G1 Alcibiades, the winner of which is 9-2 on the morning line for the BC Juvenile Fillies on Friday; two runners this one beat in maiden score graduated next out 
  2. #6 – Jennifer’s Dream (2-1): Gets blinks on after debut victory, and the only runner she faced who’s run back won her follow-up; trainer Servis a win machine
  3. #8 – Gardenista (3-1): Debut victory couldn’t have been any easier, though not sure what was behind her, as runner-up returned to be second in CT maiden event; Delacour and Centeno win at 33% clip

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #1 – Lubricus Soror (6-1) ***: Runner was up close and inside last out on a day when outside and closing was the right answer, was eased from about the 3/8ths; return to two-back form puts her right there
  2. #5 – Storm Raven (5-2): Return to turf and added ground from middling debut are pluses, and easier company should help, too
  3. #12 – Watchin the Wheels (4-1): First time on turf should be a positive, as should easier company; note that pilot from last, Vargas, jumps to #5 here

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, October 27, had 5 winners from 10 races, (2 top picks in bold).
  • Top Selections are 392 for 1381 (28.39%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $5.40
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $3.60
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $15.80
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $6.00
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $3.60
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (136:43-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Team Tim (5th race: 5-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) gave chase two wide and rallied for third, beaten one length, returning $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (131:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Kingston Pike (8th race: 12-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) was between foes early, angled wide for the drive, and closed to earn the show dough while beaten by 1 1/4 lengths, returning $6.40 to show.

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