The GQ Approach – Laurel October 28

by | Oct 28, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park (w/ live racing every Friday, Saturday and Sunday through May 7, 2017; Post Time 12:30pm EDT), including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Jackpot Pick-5, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $13,147
  • Super High 5: no carryover
  • Late Pick 5: no carryover
GQ'S Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #9 – Team Tim (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #7 – Kingston Pike (12-1)

Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1: $2 Double 3, 5, 6 w/ 6, 7 ($12)
  • Race 5: $0.50 Pick-3 9 w/ 4, 5, 6 w/ 3, 5, 6 ($4.50)
  • Race 8: $0.50 Pick-3 7, 10 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 9, 10, 12 ($9)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly cloudy; high in the mid-50s
  • Projected track conditions: sloppy main track, OFF the turf

Race 1

  1. #3 – War of the States (9-2): Trainer Trombetta skipped a Friday spot to land here with first-timer by Bodemeister; this miss is a half to a stakes winner who was graded stakes-placed
  2. #6 – Not Sure (5-2): Nothing wrong with this one’s debut when a game second to ultra-well bred Alfresco at DEL, a Godolphin runner by Tapit out of Hall of Famer Ashado
  3. #5 – Star Seed Child (4-1): Don’t love these odds on the rise in class, but first time in Gonzalez barn and first time with Lasix make this one to watch; note debut effort was fine behind repeat winner

Race 2 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Sky Magician (6-5): How about some tasty chalk for lunch?!?! A Trombetta double could be in the offing, as he wheels this one back on short rest after big try in Md. Million
  2. #6 – Creative Artist (9-5): Exchange Rate colt has been working well for trainer Lynch, whose barn can get ’em ready to fire first out
  3. #5 – Honor Run (6-1): Led a long way before just failing in last against similar at DEL; winner ran sixth in Md. Million Nursery in follow-up

Race 3

  1. #7 – Positivist (5-2): Credible debut when holding second behind 1-9 runner who had run second at the Spa in prior start; shows one decent work in the meantime
  2. #3 – Master Distiller (5-2): Drink up! Trainer DePaz has stellar record with first-time starters, and this Street Boss gelding has been training steadily towards this
  3. #2 – More Mo (9-5): Uncle Mo gelding is a full brother to 2017 Sir Barton Stakes winner No Mo Dough; trainer Motion and rider Vargas have solid record together

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #12 – No Drinking Rules (7-2): Main-track-only entrant has won two straight vs. similar at DEL and never worse than second in three tries on off tracks
  2. #8 – City Gold (6-1): Owns two off-track wins and might be controlling speed here
  3. #4 – In Him With Him (5-1): Dilodovico trainee is another MTO here; steadied back to last entering turn in latest effort, then came outside and rallied for the place; one of three to run back from that has won

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. *** #9 – Team Tim (5-2) BEST BET *** : Closing sort galloped last time he caught an off-the-turf field and might reprise that here
  2. #12 – Took Over (8-1): Won only previous off-track try and figures to be forwardly placed from the get-go while breaking from outer stall; trainer Gaudet and rider Rosado clicking at 24 percent
  3. #8 – Nick the Cardshark (4-1): Not sold on the wisdom of claiming from win machine Navarro, but veteran trainger Rigattieri is 10-for-36 first  off the claim in the last five years; he and rider Suarez are a 23 percent combo

Race 6

  1. #6 – Hot Mic (5-2): Big effort in last to be second, and winner Mr. Fixit thrashed similar at 4-5 odds in his follow-up
  2. #4 – Big Bella Brown (2-1): Wheels back just a week after running up the track, but this is major – and we mean, MAJOR – class relief from two-other-than sorts to beaten claimers here; fire sale appears to be in progress
  3. #5 – Road Guard Post (8-1): Main speed player galloped in last vs. lesser and has run well on wet surfaces

Race 7

  1. #6 – My Eminence (5-1): Runner lost all chance when breaking in air in last, spotting the field a half-dozen lengths before getting underway; trainer Farrior has done well with horses claimed out of CD
  2. #3 – Takedown (3-1): Did someone mention class relief? How about dropping from G3 Ohio Derby to this starter condition?!? Runner should appreciate easier company, though trainer Gaudet is just 5-for-61 bringing horses back off similar layoffs
  3. #5 – Swinging Star (5-2): Good effort in last when closing for the show spot, but find it kinda interesting that crafty trainer Ness chooses to run this one for the tag when starter condition is available

Race 8

  1. ***#7 – Kingston Pike (12-1) LONGSHOT PLAY ***: Made a bold but premature middle move to lead before emptying out in last; cutback in distance a plus  
  2. #10 – Uno Dancer (7-2): Makes second start off a two-month break; like to see rider Prado remain aboard a Corrales trainee who should appreciate outside post position after getting bumped around when inside in latest
  3. #2 – Dashing Lou (6-1): Big effort in only prior try on a wet surface; class relief a positive

Race 9

  1. #1 – Another Broad (7-5): Has won two straight in dominant fashion and shows a bullet work since last
  2. #4 – Fashion Week (5-2): Scored in only prior local try, following that up with even effort on the synthetic at WO; first start in two months, though this Speightstown filly has a couple of good works in the interim
  3. #3 – Take Charge Tina (3-1): Well beaten, but well clear of the rest in latest behind Isotope, who took a second-level allowance in follow up; showing four works since that mid-Sept. tilt

Race 10

  1. #9 – Lookin Sharp (3-1): Gave a pretty good accounting of herself in debut sprinting, and breeding says the added ground should work to her advantage here; sharp work in preparation
  2. #12 – Blameitonthekiss (8-1): Earned black type in latest with big step forward at 47-1; winner that day had run fourth vs. next-out G1 winner Jaywalk and G3-placed Congrats Gal in prior start
  3. #10 – Bestatgettinbetter (6-1): Didn’t show much in debut, but trainer DePaz has a solid record with second-start maidens; shows a couple of works since bow, and like to see rider Karamanos retain the mount

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday, October 27, had 5 winners from 10 races, (3 top picks in bold).
  • Top Selections are 390 for 1371 (28.45%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $5.80
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $7.60
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $29.80
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $10.80
    • R10: $7.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race 9 double, returning $57.20 for $2 on a $12 wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (136:43-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Tybalt (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) made a mild middle move while under a ride before tiring to third, 14 lengths behind the winner, returning $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (131:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Pacific Ridge (6th race: 12-1 M/L; 10-1 PT) saved ground and dropped back on the turn to finish fifth.

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