The GQ Approach – Laurel October 26

by | Oct 26, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $9,034.89
  • Super High 5: $922.07
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #2 – Astounding (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#11 – Coqueta (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 2 w/ 5, 7, 9 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 2, 6, 7 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 4, 8, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 5, 6 w/ 1, 7, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high in the mid-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Disco Express (5-2): A second and third in last two when dropped to this level; third time is a charm?
  2. #1/1A – Patriotic Quest/Tapitontheinside (9-2): “Quest” finished willingly in latest behind top pick; “Tap” been hovering around this level last four efforts being part of Trifecta in all four
  3. #9 – Port Louis (8-1): First start since mid-May when competing against $16kN2L with manhood intact; returns as a gelding and drops to bottom  

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Dumtadumtadum (2-1): Second start with blinkers and first time in for tag after getting minor awards in all 7 starts versus MSW
  2. #5 – Lill Mave (9-2): Distant runner-up in off the turf event a level higher; needs to run best turf BRIS# to earn diploma
  3. #9 – Atropos (6-1): Have to think trainer K. Rubley has figured out this filly’s issue during 4-month layoff after losing last two by combined 123-lengths; takes appropriate drop, nice works

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Dubini (9-5): Bad beat in 6 furlongs Laurel Dash after taking command by 3-lengths in the stretch; cut back to 5 ½ furlongs just what the doctor ordered
  2. #2 – Colonel Sharp (10-1): Turf debut but showed nice rallies in the stretch on synthetic at Pid in minor stakes and high-level claimer; his sire Colonel John did quite well on the turf
  3. #6 – Simon Bar Sinister (4-1): Honest running 7-year-old gelding had worst outing in over 3 years when 6th but just 4 ½-lengths behind winner in minor stakes at Mth; last year got beat a head by top pick in their only meeting 

Race 4

  1. #6 – Animalistic (3-1): Beaten favorite at Del bottom level going two turns; only one other in here has raced this 7-furlong distance or further; stretch drive may look like they’re in slow-motion
  2. #1 – Tiz a Deal (6-1): Unfortunately gets rail assignment again for second start; hesitation at the break in debut did her in; had no interest from that point even though well backed (3-1)
  3. #5 – Jacobella (3-1): Claimed out of turf race a level higher by trainer C. Mancilla; returns nearly 3-months later and drops; at least she’s run against better as foes been struggling v. cheaper

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Salt Pond (3-1): Runner-up to a next out winner on Bel turf going 6 furlongs in $40kMCL after leading most of the way; steps up to MSW as she did in debut here on turf when a bit green without speed; second start with blinkers
  2. #4 – Shanghai Jewel (6-1): Not going to give up on this gal who was dull in first outing after trainer H. Smith claim off the Toddster; “Hammy” doesn’t claim many but those he does usually pan out; getting back on turf helps
  3. #9 – Sunniva (5-1): Back in trainer M. Stidham barn after a pair of fifth-place efforts on synthetic north of the border; no concern as “go to” rider S. Russell instead takes mount on #12 for the wife… smart man

Race 6

  1. #11 – Coqueta (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ After two decent bridesmaid dirt efforts versus better maidens since being transferred to the R. Bailes barn, she drops another level and gets jock upgrade
  2.  #8 – Silver Sides (10-1): After getting reality check in second start versus MSW; this gray filly gets class relief; note jock A. Cintron stays aboard despite 20-length loss in latest
  3. #13 – Elegant Angel (8-1): Adds blinkers in fourth career start for trainer A. Pecoraro (7 for 27 at Lrl in past year); being “crowded at the start” didn’t help matters as she managed to get SHOW purse in latest/only start not sent off as favorite

Race 7 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Astounding (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Honest runner when on turf (8:3-2-2) but has been the Post Time favorite in last 7 of those with just those 3 victories; makes Lrl turf debut for trainer Jas. Servis (7:2-1-2 at Lrl the past year); lightly raced and runs well in first outings after similar layoffs
  2.   #9 – Harv Won’t Tap (6-1): Well-travelled 4-year-old gelding was a game runner-up at KD which drew some heavy hitters thanks to the inflated purse structure; should find these gents a tad easier
  3. #10 – Surprise Twist (6-1): Trainer A. Delacour for Lael Stables always brings solid turf runners to the dance; this one been ITM all 5 turf starts at this distance with two victories; another who raced on KD grass in latest

Race 8

  1.  #1 – Miz Creed (9-2): Impressive gate-to-wire maiden score in debut earning a 84 BRIS# so if she takes a step forward off that effort she’ll be tough once again
  2.  #7 – Gotham Gala (8-5): Sent off as prohibitive favorite in 3 of r4 career starts with just one win to show for it; ugly try in first against winners at Prx when off slow and very wide; can make amends in here
  3.  #2 – Rumor Ridge (6-1): Suddenly not flashing the early speed she possessed in first four starts; not sure if by design or due to being delicate? Just two outings in past 4-months

Race 9

  1.   #6 – Glenn’s Caper (2-1): Cuts back from one-mile outing when showing early speed then faded; has improved since trainer G. Brooks claim in July and took to Pid synthetic; might catch an off track as threat of rain increases throughout the card
  2.   #5 – Dove Dynasty (9-2): This namesake of breeder/owner/trainer K. Dove, Jr. who seeks first win at Lrl over the past year, can get him to Winners’ Circle as this gelding been knocking on the door at this level in last three
  3. #10 – Creepy the Crab (9-2): This 0 for 25 gelding seems to have improved since trainer N. Heil turned to K. Davis to ride; the “Creeper” might find himself on the lead in this bottom maiden thriller

Race 10 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Backyard Kitten (5-2): Been on the sidelines since late July showing just two works since but has been entered and scratched due to off the turf situations; goes for fourth consecutive win
  2.  #7 – Prime Time Man (3-1): Could be a trainer K. Magee Exacta; first turf start since early May when winning similar Start event; loves this distance (8:4-0-1)
  3.  #1 – Bay Bridge (8-1): Has the early speed to take this field gate-to-wire; gets fourth different jock in latest four outings

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday October 25th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (No Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 385 for 1351 (28.50%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $6.60
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $4.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $6.00
    • R9: $9.00
    • R10: $10.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R9-R10 $2 Double paid $35.80 (cost: $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (134:42-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Keep Your Distance (8th race: 2-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) broke a step slow then was gunned to the front, relaxed when clear nearing the turn, took pressure around the turn, kicked back clear inside the quarter pole, could not resist the swarm leaving mid-stretch and weakened finished sixth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (129:21-25-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Rapidashcat (4th race: 15-1 M/L; 31-1 PT) saved ground chasing the pace, angled out for the drive, had a mild kick and finished fifth.

Check out...