The GQ Approach – Laurel October 19

by | Oct 19, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 12:35 pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,424.34
  • Super High 5: $462.95
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3/ #4 – Sacred Walk (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#7 – Crush It (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 4, 9 w/ 3, 4, 11 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 2, 4, 5 w/ 3, 5, 6 w/ 5, 6, 14 ($13.50)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 6, 9 w/ 3, 4, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Rule Yourself (6-1): Cut back to sprint was head-scratcher when previous starts were going long without early speed 
  2. #10 – Kid Jeter (7-2): Usually avoid these 1 for ever (actually 28) types especially when a beaten favorite in last 5 of 6 starts BUT makes second start for new barn; miracles do happen
  3. #4 – Sandy Lane (6-1): House Horse (Stronach Stables) makes turf debut with good turf rider in the irons; lone win came on sloppy Lrl surface which could translate to good turf form    
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #4-Sandy Lane (6-1); #3-Smart Rags (7-2); #9-Rate Yourself (6-1)

Race 2 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Tapit Together (9-2): Del-based trainer Clyde Martin, Jr. has brought just 5 runners to Lrl over the last year, has won with two; gets jock upgrade for Lrl debut
  2. #11 – Devilinthedetails (9-2): earned a strong 82 turf BRIS# in debut at Del yet only ran evenly then failed at Pid as even money favorite; not an ideal post going one-mile
  3. #3 – Benevida (5-1): Roughed-up in latest which could explain why she failed to finish in-the-money for first time in five turf outings; expect her to makes amends in here
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-Awesome Class (12-1); #1-Pantyhose (15-1); #3-Benevida (5-1)

Race 3

  1. #4 – Sacred Walk (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Got maiden win in his 12th/latest start and claimed by trainer C. Gonzalez who wins first race after claim at a 33% from a large sampling; Nuff Said!
  2. #5 – The Walk (9-2): Blinkers came off but result was the same, only managing SHOW purse in last two at this level and surface
  3. #2 – So Good (3-1): Just 1 for 21 lifetime yet has been runner-up when 9-1 or higher over the past few starts, once when T. McCarthy was aboard as he is today

Race 4

  1. #5 – Madame Milan (5-2): Strange move for connections who love having successful turf runners so when this one switches to dirt, it must be based on strong recommendation from trainer
  2. #3 – Dothraki Sea (3-1): Only entry on card for trainer T. Proctor who convinced jock K. Coa to make trek down I-95 to ride; toss KD stakes race
  3. #6 – Sweet Candy Dance (9-2): Prx shipper for trainer who only comes to Lrl with “live” runners (9:2-1-3 over the past year); jock A. Arroyo only mount but he’s 0 for 13 with trainer

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #14 – Conscripted (9-2): This 4-year-old has needed at least 45 days rest between his six starts and was transferred from L. Rice barn after latest at Sar; jock/trainer been winning at 21% clip
  2. #6 – Conquest Falcon (12-1): Lone win came in first start on Lrl turf when claimed by trainer K. Magee from KTL but has found it rough getting back on turf thanks to Mother Nature
  3. #5 – Smash Williams (20-1): 3-year-old by More Than Ready has wanted to test turf in past two but came off, stayed in and was beaten favorite in latest for same condition 
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Gilgimesh (15-1); #6-Conquest Falcon (12-1); #5-Smash Williams (20-1)

Race 6

  1. #7 – Top of Mind (5-1): Comes off 7 furlongs stakes which is a few furlongs shorter than his ideal distance, showing some late interest; back to two turns and gets favorable pace scenario
  2. #6 – Marengo Road (6-1): Third start after layoff; expect an effort closer to the being runner-up behind next out winner two back than when in over his head at Bel
  3. #2 – Even Thunder (5-2): Earned second triple-digit BRIS# of career in latest when third in restricted stakes at Del; does best when on the lead but will be have company early on 

Race 7

  1. #5 – Stellar Trick (6-1): 3-year-old got fourth career win in latest versus better just 12 days ago; continues to take advantage of conditions kind to her peers in this 3-year old OR N3L event
  2. #4 – Mrs. Rembrandt (4-1): Latest dud (5th by 24-lengths) outing was against open claimers, much tougher than this condition for a 3-year-old who has already won 3-times 
  3. #1 – Avilles (9-2): Didn’t flash the early speed as in the past in last start takes drop in hopes of finding class level

Race 8 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Crush It (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ FTS by Not for Love out of a Ragtime Doll mare for trainer M. Eppler who has scratched this one at least twice when races came off the turf; trust her knowledge this one will take to turf
  2. #7 – What a Hoot (10-1): Huge improvement to get SHOW purse when 25-1 on yielding Lrl turf when stretching out to two turns; takes one class step up and needs to do the same performance wise
  3. #2 – Second Encore (5-1): Nice late run in turf sprint, his second career start which followed an off the turf one-mile event; gets that added distance today and should relish 
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-Johnny Banks (4-1); #10-Relentless Lion (12-1); #12-Quality Choice (2-1)

Race 9

  1. #9 – On the Hop (9-2): Blinkers off after just one race that didn’t go well (eased), only fast track outing OTB; look for reversal of fortunes on class drop along with a stalking trip
  2. #6 – La Zoraya (5-1): Bug W. Hamilton will likely push this gal to the early lead as she wasn’t up to a speed duel with many more speedsters than in here
  3. #4 – Gingeresk (4-1): Got third career win in straight N3L condition against many of the same suspects back in again but is eligible thanks to the 3-year-old OR N3L condition

Race 10 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #12 – Banjo Bill (3-1): Only knows one way to win… from gate to wire; appears J. Toledo will be able to dictate modest early pace 
  2.   #4 – Chargin Storm (10-1): Returns to turf with capable rider who stays aboard after so-so effort on dirt versus similar in first start for trainer J. Corrales
  3.   #3 – Can Do Anything (9-2): Couldn’t hang on the lead when in versus winners for first timein off the turf event at Del; returns to turf and gets H. Karamanos in irons who is 3 for 6 with trainer A. Goldberg runners at Lrl over the past year 
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #8-Toe Curlin’ Kiss (6-1); #9-Big City Blues (3-1); #6-Royal Crusader (12-1)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday October 18th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 375 for 1309 (28.64%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $9.40
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: $3.80
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $4.00
    • R8: $5.80
    • R9: $7.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R8-R9 $2 Double for $24.20 (cost $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (130:39-33-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Breaking Bread (7th race: 9-5 M/L; 1-1 PT) rushed up after breaking last, advanced in the two path between horses into the turn, opened up midway on the bend and was kept to her task in the drive to prevail by three-lengths and returned $4.00 to WIN, $3.00 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (125:21-24-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Marco Island (4th race: 6-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) had speed between rivals then was wrangled back off the leaders leaving the five eighths pole, settled in the clear leaving the far turn, angled three wide and commenced a run under pressure into the lane, sustained under strong handling leaving the furlong pole, made a determined lunge to the inside of the winner in deep stretch and just missed by a nose and returned $5.40 to PLACE and $3.60 to SHOW.

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