The GQ Approach – Laurel October 14

by | Oct 14, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $875
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Off-track Record - When the track gets listed as sloppy, muddy, or good, bettors often fail to realize many horses perform better or worse versus racing on a track labeled as “fast."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1/ #4 – Marie from Parie (6-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#5 – Professor Zoom (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 48 w/ 3, 8 ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick 3: 2, 5, 10 w/ 1, 7, 9 w/ 3, 5, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick 5: 5, 6 w/ 3, 4, 5 w/ 2, 7 w/ 2, 6, 11 w/ 1, 10 ($36)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high in the upper-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Marie from Parie (6-1): *** BEST BET *** Much the second best when showed early speed at this distance coming off 2-month vacation 
  2. #8 – D’wildcat Sunshine (12-1): Nice late run to conquer $16kN2L in taking advantage of hotly contested pace
  3. #9 – Cherokee Fire (20-1): Longshot winner versus $16kN2L in an off the turf event in latest earning career best BRIS# in thirteenth start

Race 2

  1. #8 – Hail the Queen (7-2): She hails from Ellis Park where trainer M. Zulueta (22% in ’18) claimed her for $16k out of maiden score; was well meant in both starts sent off as Post Time favorite
  2. #3 – Knock Out Kid (6-1): Got buried in $100k stakes at Del when equipped with blinkers for second time; should find these gals a bit easier to chase
  3. #5 – Past Perfect (7-5): Gets to boast best BRIS# (75) which she earned breaking maiden in last/second start with first time Lasix v. a quintet of $15kMCL

Race 3

  1. #2 – Oy to the World (6-1): KY-bred FTS by Colonel John out of a Two Punch mare should be turf bound one day in the future but the extensive worktab leads up beautifully to today’s debut
  2. #10 – Glad Dad (15-1): Was up the track in second start with blinkers and going one-mile when LSPOD; appears he wants no parts of going longer than sprint distances; drops from MSW
  3. #5 – Vorian (7-2): PA-bred FTS by Atreides out of an Activist mare has a trio of recent works indicating she could be quick; trainer L. Gaudet gets 23% of FTS to Winners’ Circle

Race 4 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #1A – Barley Jack (7-2): MTO entry had two-race win streak ended when she tested restricted stakes company… and failed; a stalking trip gets it done versus a field of front runners
  2. #9 – Isotope (5-2): Another MTO runner always picks up a check and romped against Alwn1x crowd as prohibitive favorite in latest
  3. #7 – Folk Magic (12-1): Could be the speed of the speed; if the others let her alone on the lead she may not look back and score the natural Hat Trick

Race 5

  1. #5 – Professor Zoom (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Got the SHOW purse in first start in 14-months against open $5k claimers while most others in here been knocking heads in $5k beaten condition
  2. #8 – Turbin (7-2): Always comes running from the clouds in deep stretch but ideally needs more than 6 furlongs (5:0-2-o at distance); did miss by just a neck in latest going six panels
  3. #3 – The Great Provider (2-1): Something went amiss with this 7-year-old gelding after being runner-up for $20kn1y in July as only start since came at Pen in $8kn1y Sep. 22, ran fourth of six

Race 6

  1. #5 – High Flying Guy (3-1): Lightbulb Theory in effect as he broke maiden in latest, his 18th career start albeit v. $12kMCL on a “wet fast” Del surface; been game on fast tracks too (8:0-4-3)
  2. #6 – Praise the Moon (3-1): Though he faded to fifth finishing nearly 8-lengths behind the winner in latest, the middle and late pace numbers would decent compared to today’s foes
  3. #3 – Accusing (5-2): Weakened against slightly better at Del in first start after trainer K. Breen claim for $20k at Mth; T. McCarthy willing to ride back but could simply be a good business move

Race 7

  1. #3 – Army Grey (8-5): Goes for the natural Hat Trick against a weak beaten claiming nickel group; leave it to trainer C. Gonzalez (26%) to place his runners where they can be successful 
  2. #5 – Technicallyspeakin (5-2): Got third career win in similar condition at Tim two back; WV-bred was no factor in lone Lrl start against much better three back in first start in 21-months
  3. #4 – Missin Maggie (20-1): Live longshot exits one-mile contest for open nickel claimers when she’d rather sprint; runner-up three back in this condition then steadied in next outing

Race 8

  1. #2 – Mucho Mas Grande (9-2): Claimed for $10k at CD in Sep. by A. Farrior (22% in first after claim) and gets J. Toledo in irons who has won on 33% (15 of 46) mounts this trainer
  2. #7 – Hayne’s Fever (5-2): Sheds blinkers which were added five starts back rendering one win v. bottom claimers; gets new pilot in J. Ruiz 
  3. #4 – Kierland (10-1): Lone win came on a “good” Lrl main oval; 3:0-1-1 on fast tracks and been competing against a level higher

Race 9 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Super Buddy (7-2): MTO entry gets J. Rosado back in irons; been competing at this level for a while; last victory came here at same distance
  2. #11 – Redneck Cowboy (6-1): NJ-bred took to the Lrl slop just getting beat in game effort to be much the second best
  3. #6 – Special Intentions (10-1): Faced better going one-mile in last outing when tried to duel for lead then faded

Race 10 IS OFF THE TURF

  1.  #10 – Jack of Spades (8-1): Drops another level for third straight start; has the early speed to get lead and outlast others who the majority have already been struggling at this level
  2.  #1 – Pro Riot (5-1): Will likely gun from the rail with bug boy W. Hamilton now aboard; drops from $25kMCL
  3. #5 – Buster’s Brother (15-1): Continues to improve with each start; could earn diploma today with another step forward and a little racing luck

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday October 13th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 369 for 1290 (28.60%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $3.60
    • R2: $4.00
    • R3: $4.60
    • R4: $8.40
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.20
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $9.80
    • R10: $6.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 Double for $11.00 (cost:$12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (128:38-32-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Lonely Drifter (6th race: 3-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) came in on JAH GRACE leaving the starting gate, stalked the pace, moved up three wide to take command entering the stretch then was kept to her business in the drive to win by three-lengths and returned $5.20 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (123:21-23-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Taco Supream (4th race: 6-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) stalked the pace three deep around the turn, was floated out in upper stretch then gamely chased the winner through the stretch coming up a neck short and returned $5.60 to PLACE and $3.80 to SHOW.

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