The GQ Approach – Laurel October 13

by | Oct 13, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6/ #6 – Lonely Drifter (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#5 – Taco Supream (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 3, 11 w/ 4, 5 ($12)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick 5: 4, 6 w/ 3, 8, 9 w/ 7, 16 w/ 1, 3 w/ 4, 6, 10 ($36)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, high in the upper-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #3 – Available (7-2): Toss latest restricted stakes that came off the turf along with previous two turf tries where he encountered tons of trouble yet still finished in-the-money
  2. #11 – Skippin to Victory (20-1): Nothing but a WAG that this Lrl turf course could be kind to early speed sprinting and this one fits the bill; jock A. Wolfsont only mount on the card
  3. #2 – Colonel Andy (5-2): Beaten favorite in dirt sprint at this level when “jostled” at the start; has Turf Seconditis (14:1-6-1)
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-Colonel Andy (5-2); #7-Mr. Fixit (7-5); #4-Nonsuch (6-1)

Race 2

  1. #4 – Grace to Glory (5-1): Competed in 9 races during the recently ended Pid meet (on synthetic) where the talent at the same level doesn’t measure up at Lrl but most foes in here haven’t been facing open claimers like her
  2. #5 – Southern Peach (7-2): Is at her best when coming from a bit off the pace; that couldn’t have been the plan in latest as she tried to press lone speed in a 4-horse field, settled for PLACE purse        
  3. #7 – Misses Knight (6-1): CT 4½ furlong specialist will try to carry her speed 6 furlongs as she rarely did in her past (16:2-2-6); Lrl main oval is usually kind to speed on Saturday’s… by chance        

Race 3 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Paz the Wine (9-5): The most experienced maiden makes 17th career start yet got the Morning Line favoritism nod; NY-bred exits restricted maidens in Empire state hoping to catch weaker at Lrl
  2. #9 – Cheerful Account (20-1): Ignore her only two starts which came on dirt ovals; this daughter of multiple Group winning IRE-bred Narrative who also has turf influence on the dam line should be considered a live longshot 
  3. #5 – Whenallelsefails (15-1): 0 for 15 with 8 of those starts on turf with just ITM finish, getting E. Walker back aboard gives her a shot
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #8-Justanarch (10-1); #5-Whenallelsefails (15-1); #3-Expect Wonderful (7-5)

Race 4

  1. #5 – Taco Supream (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Beaten favorite when last seen in the afternoon competing at Pim; trainer D. Dilodovico places his runners in races to be successful when coming back from layoff
  2. #2 – Sonic Boom E Jet (3-1): Been part of the Exacta in last four efforts (4:2-2-0), winning by a nose, holding off late charge of #8 in here; needs to go 1/16th further today
  3. #8 – Cerulean Springs (7-2): Quite the ATM for his connections since claim for $15k 8 races back (8:2-5-1); today’s 6 furlongs is his best distance

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #1A – A Great Time (3-1): Can boast best turf BRIS# of this group; has been facing better than the foes who have assembled in this contest
  2. #15 – Hip Hop (4-1): BRIS#s have been climbing in past three turf sprints despite coming up short in each; simple jock switch could prove to make the difference
  3. #12 – Happiness (15-1): Away since mid-May but has nice, steady worktab on Fai training track over the past month; makes turf debut in fourth career start
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #14-Zorally (9-5); #12-Happiness (15-1); #11-Party Rock (7-2)

Race 6

  1. #6 – Lonely Drifter (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Ran evenly in first outing at this one-mile distance versus better and after trainer J. Robb claim at this level; should improve running back to same distance
  2. #4 – Ridgemont High (9-2): Fast times? Not quite as this filly has struggled to regain her 2-year-old form; continues to drop to levels while losing races by less and less
  3. #1 – Final Fear (9-5): Was “willing” as distant bridesmaid to next out winner at Tim; stretch out to one mile is a furlong and a half further than she’s ever raced

Race 7

  1. #9 – Empire Panther (4-1): Second start with blinkers which seemed to help in latest staying focused in deep stretch versus previous starts
  2. #3 – That’sthewaytodoit (8-1): Disappointing runs in last two when 5-1 in $40kMCL causing own trouble out of the gate; drops and switch to T. McCarthy should help get a clean break 
  3. #8 – Nomocats (7-2): MD-bred FTS by Discreet Cat out of a Power of Mind mare shows a quartet of modest works but trainer C. Gonzalez gets 25% of his Firsters to Winners’ Circle

Race 8 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #16 – Ultimate Avery (6-1): Needs just one defection from this event to sneak in off AE List; faced a tough bunch on Suf sod while not fairing so well but as finished well versus open $20k Claimers 
  2. #7 – Miss Aja Brown (4-1): 0 for 10 at this distance on turf but with appropriate class relief and lack of early pressure from others, she could make every pole a winning one
  3. #15 – Smart Romance (3-1): Has shown improvement since trainer J. Cibelli claim four back but not to the tune of winning; now drops below that claim price in Lrl debut by way of Del and Mth
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #4-Miss Nosy (5-2); #1-I Dream of Lois (8-1); #8-Doinwhatshelikes (8-1)

Race 9

  1. #3 – Rithm and Rap (9-2): Gate-to-wire winner in latest against a speedy one (Bridgewater) getting last 1/8th in 12 flat; don’t see any others in here who can do that… on Lrl’s Saturday Special dirt oval (wink wink)
  2. #1 – Cool as You Like (3-1): Impressive winner v. $16kN2L at Sar chasing very quick early fractions, then taking control in the stretch while getting final 1/16th in a pedestrian 7 seconds
  3. #7 – Rockin Ruth (15-1): Exits one-mile outing, unable to pace herself for entire journey; cuts back to familiar sprint and should get a nice, stalking trip to get first run at early speed

Race 10 IF ON THE TURF

  1.  #10 – I Ain’t Never (5-1): Has found his niche sprinting on the turf (3:2-1-0); goes for natural Hat Trick as turf BRIS#s are ascending
  2.    #4 – Circle of Light (5-1): Lightly raced 5-year-old routinely takes 2-month break between starts; did so coming into this contest; late rally has come up short in last two
  3.    #6 – Waterhaven (6-1): Turf debut was washed of it in last outing which turned into a gate-to-wire score on a fast track; bred to be better on turf than dirt
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-Waterhaven (6-1); #9-Whenthedovescry (9-2); #10-I Ain’t Never (5-1)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday October 12th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 367 for 1280 (28.67%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $3.40
    • R2: $3.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $6.60
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.20
    • R8: $5.00
    • R9: $7.60
    • R10: $2.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 Double for $7.80 (cost:$6).
  • BEST BET of the Day (127:37-32-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) I’m Mr. Blue (2nd race: 3-1 M/L; 1-2 PT) sped to the front, opened up on the turn and lasted under steady handling and returned $3.00 to WIN and $2.10 to PLACE there was no SHOW wagering.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (122:21-22-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Rosuri (6th race: 10-1 M/L; 12-1 PT) sped to the early lead, set the pace two wide around the turn, drifted out near the eighth pole, drifted in late and failed to hold off the winner and returned $13.80 to PLACE and $9.60 to SHOW.

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