The GQ Approach – Laurel October 11

by | Oct 11, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $901
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #1 – Midnight Cry (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#7 – Unusual Fleet (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 3 w/ 3, 10 ($8)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick 3: 1 w/ 2, 6, 7 w/ 1, 2, 5 ($4.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly cloudy, high in the upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – ???

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Sanguine (5-2): Makes third start, first on turf for connections who specialize in turf runners; still no Lasix
  2. #1 – Dakota Ready (4-1): Daughter of More Than Ready got the SHOW purse in debut on Del turf; jock C. DeCarlo lone mount on the card  
  3. #6 – Money Fromheaven (9-2): Most experienced 2-year-old gal of this group been part of Trifecta in last four efforts, all scheduled for turf but just one was run on it (SHOWed going 6f)
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-Money Fromheaven (9-2); #2-Cherry Knot (3-1); #5-Dizzy (6-1)

Race 2 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Scout’s Honor (9-5): Runner-up in last two versus similar… one on turf, one in slop; honest running 9-year-old gelding always in the mix (4:1-1-2 on Lrl turf)
  2. #10 – Indian Bucks (8-1): Claimed out of latest at Suf when failed as Post Time favorite in second straight start; change of scenery could change fortunes
  3. #1 – Padilla (7-5): Rough start in latest which was first outing in 5-months and off the turf, in slop at this level; back class warrants short ML odds
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #1-Padilla (7-5); #11-Smart and Tough (15-1); #8-Pachi Cruze (7-2)

Race 3

  1. #7 – Double Whammy (9-5): Third start after brief layoff for trainer M. Eppler loves Lrl main oval (19:9-5-1)
  2. #5 – Ten Hut (7-2): Drops to lowest level since trainer J. Robb claim six races back; Closer will need a clean on cut back to one-mile, unlike last two
  3. #6 – Top Prospect (8-1): Runner-up when 8-1 facing a quartet at same level; 10-year-old seeks first win since April. The last of a five-race win streak at Lrl

Race 4 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Zaptuit (6-1): 0 for 19 gives one reason to pause why today? Drop back to lowest turf maiden level and reunited with underrated R. Montanez
  2. #2 – Wise Men (5-2): Beaten favorite when going an extra panel, encountering traffic while making move on far turn
  3. #11 – Nitro Fuel (12-1): Wide and stopped on Pen turf last month in first outing after brief vacation; has given a good account of himself versus better earlier this year
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #9-Cannavaro (10-1); #4-Zaptuit (6-1); #7-Sofranko (15-1)

Race 5

  1. #5 – Ocean Monarch (6-1): KY-bred FTS by nice freshmen Cairo Prince out of a Monarchos unraced mare has an extensive worktab riddled with bullets
  2. #9 – Passcode (7-2): DQ’d from gate-to-wire win when impeded multiple foes from outside post on way to the rail in second career start, first with blinkers; rarely does a maiden DQ’d from win come right back and graduate
  3. #2 – Bernoulli (8-1): Trainer G. Motion saddles KY-bred FTS by Bernardini out of a Storm Cat mare shows evenly spaced worktab, progressively increasing distances; gets “go to” jock J. Vargas, Jr.

Race 6 IF ON THE TURF

  1.   #7 – Unusual Fleet (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Typically shows speed but when going two turns; cut back in distance should see this 7-year-old gelding in the second fleet, ready to get first run to tackle leg-weary front-runners
  2. #1 – Anytime Anyplace (3-1): Speed from the rail first time with T. McCarthy in the irons will need to outlast a few others speedsters to get back-to-back win
  3. #10 – Adversary (7-2): Versatile runner been picking up minor shares without a win on turf in 12 tries; third start since layoff
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #6-King’s House (5-2); #11-Here’s Johnny (20-1); #10-Adversary (7-2)

Race 7

  1. #1 – Midnight Cry (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Two words: Lone Speed; in addition went gate to wire in this same “for 3-year-olds OR N3L” for third career win; all foes today are N3L
  2. #4 – Be Back (3-1): Uncoupled stablemate of top pick from C. Frock barn was runner-up to the same two back and duplicated that feat versus better in latest
  3. #7 – Young American (2-1): Just when you’re ready to write off this steep class dropper he showed some fight in at this bottom level; first start at this start distance

Race 8

  1. #2 – Rein Supreme (3-1): Got up late to be bridesmaid in latest going same 5 1/2f despite a slow start then being steadies at the half
  2. #6 – Bunker (4-1): Bit off more than she could chew when in against OC$25k group following maiden breaker in $16kMCL; been rank in recent outings so jock upgrade may help 
  3. #7 – Bourbonstreetlady (3-1): Trying to better third-place finishes in last three starts versus similar; favorite in latest behind top pick in here

Race 9

  1. #5 – Jiffy Josh (9-2): Has floundered trying to compete at higher level in five races since debut win at Tam for $25k tag; could surprise on cut back in distance when showing early speed
  2. #2 – Jonathan McD (4-1): Fresh off trainer W. Potts $5k claim at Belterra out of maiden by 7+ lengths in second start with blinkers; Lrl will be sixth different track in sixth career race 
  3. #1 – True Cat (7-2): Was in way over his head in Alw1Nx contest and received no love at the windows (46-1) and ran to those odds; drops to a more manageable level while foes been struggling at this condition 

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday October 7th at Laurel had 4 winners from 7 races having picks (1 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 360 for 1261 (28.54%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: no picks due to late surface change
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: no picks due to late surface change
    • R5: $2.40
    • R6: $4.60
    • R7: $5.20
    • R8: no picks due to late surface change
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $4.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (125:36-31-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Brickyard Kitten (8th race: 9-5 M/L) was SCRATCHED after track management made decision after Race 1 to take races off the turf.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (120:21-21-15; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Looking Ready (9th race: 6-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) stumbled out of the gate, rushed up to chase the pacesetter, challenged for the lead entering the stretch but weakened late while salvaging the SHOW spot and returned $4.60 to SHOW.

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