The GQ Approach – Laurel October 5

by | Oct 5, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $677
  • Super High 5: $1,936
  • Late Pick 5: $3,231
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
“Z” race last out - If a horse loses ground from 2nd call to 3rd call but gains ground from 3rd call to the finish, s/he often runs an improved race in her next start.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #9 – Artful Move (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#4 – Petticoatsnpistols (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 5, 7, 12 w/ 7 ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 7, 8  w/ 5, 6, 7 w/ 3, 9, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 3, 4 w/ 9  w/ 1, 3, 5 w/ 11, 12, 15 w/ 4, 5, 14 ($27)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #12 – Inspired Notion (15-1): 4-year-old MD-bred FTS by Great Notion out of a Citidancer mare bred, owned and trained by H. Brown who has saddled just on other runner this year who finished second and third in two starts; why not take a shot with this one?
  2. #5 – Princess Rosie (12-1): Willing inside run in debut in similar off the turf scenario at this level; the education from that one could prove valuable today
  3. #7 – Street Passion (8-1): Blinker on after wide trip in debut on Sar turf likely because owner likes to see his runners race at The Spa; back in the Free State where he’ll eventually graduate, maybe today 

Race 2

  1. #7 – Flying the Flag (2-1): KY-bred FTS by Malibu Moon out of a Indian Charlie mare cost $675k at 2-yr-old sale; deep pocket syndicate puts this colt in capable hands of conditioner G. Motion; nice worktab since mid-August 
  2. #3 – Formula One (7-2): 4-year-old cost $1.7 million as a yearling and has earned $2,731 in four career starts… 1 at age 2, 1 at 3 and 2 this year with best finish fifth; gelded since latest outing
  3. #1 – Smart Step (7-2): Showing late interest since coming off 6-month layoff along with a few excuses could get the better of the two blue bloods above as J. Toledo rides for first time 

Race 3 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Thaila’s Song (6-1): On the surface she’s a much better runner on turf than dirt but her two dirt failures came prior to 5-month layoff; recent works on dirt show she handles it just fine
  2. #7 – Neetee Rides Again (12-1): Exits one mile off the turf contest where she showed early speed then threw jock tossed out the anchor; return to sprint and gets fast track, surface of lone win
  3. #1 – It’s a Doozy (6-1): Third start after layoff and third in which came off the turf; reunited with HOF E. Prado who was aboard for runner-up effort two back 

Race 4

  1. #6 – Tidy Stripe (1-1): Cedeno returns to ride this ATM (4:0-2-2 on main track this year) so one might think she’s a vulnerable favorite but not versus these gals; only threat could come from the two first-timers (#1 and #4)
  2. #5 – Parched Ghost (9-2): Drops to bottom following fourth-place finish on slop a slot higher where three best efforts have come from
  3. #7 – Our Gal Mal (12-1): Sneaky longshot as that second start with blinkers in latest came on just 6 days rest while trying one mile; rested up for return to sprint and likely off the pace run

Race 5 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Spicy Girl Red (10-1): Event has plenty of early speed staying in despite being off the turf so this points to a later runner to prevail and this gal gets the nod
  2. #3 – Tiger Eyes (10-1): Interesting entry for A. Farrior who trailed in come back race from 9-month layoff; now tries to stretch natural speed to one mile and attracts T. McCarthy to ride
  3. #10 – Lady Terp (8-5): Lone MTO entry catches a break to run; 12-time winner comes off 5+ length victory in conditional claimer at Del beating just 4 others; should romp but this capper is leery

Race 6

  1. #4 – Petticoatsnpistols (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Steepest class dropper in this contest for trainer KTL; just 1 for 18 but 1 for 2 on fast track
  2. #3 – Charming Emmy (7-2): Trainer C. DeMario claimed this gal for a nickel as she gradually dropped in class yet still couldn’t get second win at Tim behind next out winner; gets favorable pace scenario
  3. #6 – Sharon’s Thunder (6-1): Blinkers off and stretches out to middle distance for first time in nineteenth start; perennial “underneath” play in exotics (18:1-5-7)

Race 7 IS OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Artful Move (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Putting faith and 5-race Best Bet win streak on the line in jock F. Boyce to take this filly to the lead and not look back as she should be lone speed in this off the turf contest
  2. #7 – Lutenanny (10-1): Wiley jock J. Acosta might hustle this gal early even though she’s shown no early foot in her two dirt starts versus $25kMCL NY-breds
  3. #3 – Eye of the Wildcat (12-1): Nice effort to get SHOW purse in the Lrl slop; if a filly can come off the pace here it’s likely her 

Race 8

  1. #1 – Chargin Storm (7-2): First start since end of June; like jock and trainer switch as the latter has positive ROI winning at 16% clip first time saddling a runner; slow worker, game race runner
  2. #3 – Divine Interventio (2-1): Timely $16k claim at Sar for trainer L. Gaudet for run in minor restricted stakes resulted in runner-up effort as prohibitive favorite in slop v. 4 others; just 1 for 8 at distance
  3. #5 – Crouchelli (6-1): Cut back in distance not ideal for this Closer making first start going 7 furlong as lone win was at two-turns

Race 9 IS NOW OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Astounding (5-2): Owns top BRIS Prime Power# along with ascending speed figures; Ja. Servis ships in to win (7:2-1-2 at Lrl in past year) but T. McCarthy is 0 for 21 w/ trainer over same period, now THAT is… astounding!
  2. #9 – Conquest See Ya (10-1): Can’t seem to conquer this level but picks up minor shares; speed figures been looking better than on track results
  3. #12 – Douglas Road (10-1): Hasn’t been off the board in his young career (8:2-3-2-1); A. Delacour/D. Centeno a potent duo winning at a 34% clip over the past year 
    * For OFF THE TURF go with #15-Not Fake News (20-1); #12-Douglas Road (10-1); #11-Gold Man (2-1)

Race 10 IS NOW OFF THE TURF

  1.  #12 – Not in Jeopardy (6-1): Plenty of early speed in this contest to set up for this late running filly who seems to have embraced switch from routing to sprints 
  2.    #9 – Fly (6-1): Blinkers off following two fourth-places at short odds when wearing the hood; stalking trip gives her first run on leg-weary speedsters 
  3.  #13 – My Sister Caro (9-2): Needs to bounce back from being beaten favorite on a yielding Suf sod; seems to prefer a firm turf so might be up against it after rain last night
    * For OFF THE TURF go with #5-Keep Your Distance (7-2); #14-Adios Annie (5-2); #4-Deep Red (7-2)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday October 4th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 357 for 1234 (28.93%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $4.40
    • R5: $9.40
    • R6: $17.80
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $79.80 (not a typo)
    • R9: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (123:36-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Valadier (2nd race: 9-5 M/L; 3-2 PT) chased the pace four wide, advanced to the inside of a drifting rival past the five-sixteenths, circled foes five wide and challenged soon into the lane, took control a furlong out, winning by one-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $5.00 to WIN, $3.00 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (118:21-20-14; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Guthries Collar (9th race: 6-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) fractious in the starting gate, raced in the two-path between rivals on the far turn, eased out for the drive and flattened out, finished fourth.

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