The GQ Approach – Laurel October 4

by | Oct 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $636
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2/ #3 – Valadier (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#8 – Guthries Collar (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 3, 6 w/ 3 ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 6, 10  w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 6, 7, 15 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 4: 3, 5 w/ 2, 3, 6  w/ 1, 2, 9 w/ 1, 5, 8 ($27)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Wiggins (2-1): Gelded since he last raced in mid-January; class drop from $25k for trainer/jock combo who’s 1 for 1 
  2. #2 – Dove Dynasty (3-1): Beaten favorite in latest as slow start may have cost this victory; might be tough to get 5 ½ furlongs with his late running style
  3. #6 – Vicar’s Chalice (12-1): Lost debut back in July by 42-lengths v. much better; adds Lasix, blinkers and shows a quartet of 5 furlong works since might indicate he’s ready today

Race 2

  1. #3 – Valadier (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Prevailed against bottom level maidens despite traffic; runner-up came back to graduate in next outing
  2. #6 – Disco Express (3-1): Not many in here have pedigree for this middle distance, except this one; got SHOW purse in latest as winner came back to repeat
  3. #4 – Running for Ryan (10-1): Exits summer at Mth coming up empty versus better; owner/trainer seeks first win of ‘18

Race 3 IF ON THE TURF

  1.   #3 – Benevida (4-1): Earned a monster (91) BRIS# on Lrl turf in latest when trainer K. Rubley added blinkers
  2. #10 – Decorating (5-2): Successful owner/trainer team recruits T. McCarthy, third different jock for this filly’s third career start, first on Lrl lawn
  3. #6 – Dumtadumtadum (10-1): Surprisingly trainer M. Dickinson ran this gal on the main track last Dec., her most recent race; been working in earnest since late June

Race 4

  1. #1/1A – Zarski/Brahm’s Romp (9-5): Potent 1-2 punch for trainer K. Magee; Zarski turf to dirt angle, first race after claim (21%) while 3-year-old “Romp” is only runner in here with 3 wins
  2. #6 – Roman Warrior (3-1): Predictable bad result when in a few levels higher after win against $5kN2L; returns to spot where he should make presence known late 
  3. #4 – Here’s Paco (8-1): Picked up a pair of minor checks versus better; runner-up at this level at Tim three back 

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Preachin’ George (4-1): Broke maiden in debut on turf 11-months ago; wanted turf on Sept. 14th, first outing since last Dec. but got washed off; fingers crossed this event stays on it
  2. #6 – Lion Lord (6-1): “House Horse” broke maiden in first race after being transferred to trainer J. Corrales then faced tough in an off the turf event that saw runner-up win in next start
  3. #15 – Great Adventurer (3-1): Ultra-speedy one sneaks in off AE List for trainer K. Demasi but will be pressed early by a plethora of others; stamina will be tested to get final 1/16th

Race 6

  1. #5 – Lucky Bull (6-1): Gelded since last start on Aug. 19th when first time blinkers and turf but didn’t go so well (8th by 11); jock/trainer combo winning at 29% over the past year
  2. #3 – Bro Your Killingme (6-1): Adds blinkers and reunited with G. Almodovar, his only mount on the card; last work (with blinkers?) is vast improvement over all previous ones
  3. #6 – Wheels in Motion (15-1): Worth a shot at this price going postward second time with blinkers and class drop from MSW             

Race 7 IS ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Daniel Le Deux (3-1): Draw a line through latest in slop; getting back on turf should he perform as he did a few back rallying while coming up just a tad bit short
  2. #6 – Love You Much (9-2): Ran behind top pick in latest enough versus similar first time stretching out; should improve off that one
  3. #2 – Beltway Bob (6-1): One look at his PPs indicates something special… he loves a turf course with a little “give” in it, which this Lrl lawn certainly has these days; still needs a career best  

Race 8 IS ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Maryland Pride (7-2): Toss latest sprint in slop has he needed one coming off 5-month vacation; with ability to duplicate BRIS#s from GP last spring, he’ll get to Winners’ Circle
  2. #1 – Benevolent Prince (4-1): Strong runner-up effort in first start against winners which followed an 11-length bottom turf maiden score in 9th start; trainer K. Rubley found what makes him tick
  3. #2 – Elementary (12-1): Appears this contest is filled with early speed types while this 3-year-olds lone win came from way off the pace

Race 9 IS ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Guthries Collar (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Had rough trips in both turf outings while a pair of next out winners came out of both; trainer F. Stites wins at a 14% clip with multi-class droppers, better than overall 11% pct. this year
  2. #5 – High Noon Lute (8-1): Wanted to make turf debut a few weeks back but it came off; bloodlines indicate he’ll handle it plus drops
  3. #1 – Stormy Patriot (6-1): Digressed from career best 71 turf BRIS# earned three back and a level higher when 44-1; reunited with jock W. Hamilton who was aboard for that race

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday September 30th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 11-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 355 for 1225 (28.98%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $21.60
    • R2: $4.80
    • R3: $9.60
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $6.20
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $4.60
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $6.00
    • R11: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $85.00 (cost: $6).
  • BEST BET of the Day (122:35-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Warrior Lake (2nd race: 5-2 M/L; 7-5 PT) pulled his way clear near the five eighths, set a rated pace, drifted to about the three-path entering the lane, was quickly corrected, kept on under repeated right handed rousing and held firm  to win by two-lengths and returned $4.80 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (117:21-20-14; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Iredell (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) leaned in and bumped a rival at the break, chased two to three wide and lacked a solid bid, finished fifth.

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