The GQ Approach – Laurel September 29

by | Sep 29, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $496
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5/ #4 – Cairenn (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 1 /#1 – Jah Grace (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 2 w/ 3, 5, 10 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 4, 6 w/ 4, 6, 9 w/ 2, 4, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 5: 8, 9 w/ 5, 8, 10 w/ 5, 6 w/ 4, 7 w/ 4, 6 ($24)
  • Race 11 – $2 Double: 4, 7 w/ 3, 4, 6  ($12)

Analysis

  • Selections prior to SCRATCHES
  • Weather: Partly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 7th and 8th are ON; 2nd, 4th, 9th are OFF
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

1st Race Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #1 – Jah Grace (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Might be crazy but this gal has a shot to go gate-to-wire coming off a sprint filled with early speed a level higher; middle distance suits her
  2. #2 – Vinny Gorgeous (3-1): Romped against below MD circuit bottom maidens at The Big T two back; got SHOW purse against four others in first try v. winners originally schedule for the turf
  3. #5 – Jumpstartmyheart (6-1): Should get a fast track for first time since last Dec. when she completed the Superfecta in a $10kN2L going 7 furlongs 

Race 2 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Don’t Poke the Cat (10-1):  Just 3 for 27 career record but has never failed to be ITM (4:2-1-1) traveling today’s distance on the turf; H. Karamanos gets the call as E. Prado elects to ride #4
  2. #8 – Seeking the Sunset (4-1): Earned a huge turf BRIS# (96) in just second turf start, first at this distance 
  3. #2 – Hills Pond (10-1): Will be forwardly placed in Lrl turf debut at a distance where he earned both career wins (5:2-1-1); fourth in latest when 37-1 on Mth turf
    * If Off the Turf go with #5-Bok Vuk (5-2); #10-Don’t Poke the Cat (10-1); #3-No More Talk (7-2)

Race 3

  1. #6 – Southern Peach (3-1): There’s enough early speed in here to help this versatile 8-year-old to sit off a suicidal pace and catch leg-weary foes late
  2. #3 – Queen Francis (8-5): PA-bred has success at Pen but just 1 for 6 elsewhere, the win came at CT; if any of the early speedsters can survive a torrid pace it is likely this mare
  3. #4 – Stormy Mama (8-1): Previously 4 for 56 but K. Davis’ first time riding this gal found the right formula with a late run to get this mare to Winners’ Circle in latest; gets a legit shot to repeat     

Race 4 IF the Find Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Just Howard (2-1): G3 winning colt has been globe-trotting since that victory getting minor shares in other graded-stakes events; returned home last month to earn 100 turf BRIS# v. lesser
  2. #3 – O Dionysus (7-2): Has made successful transition from dirt to turf in a big way (3 for 3) earning speed figure worthy of a big shot in here
  3. #8 – Phlash Phelps (5-2): His best days may be behind this 7-year-old who disappointed in this event last year, running third as 1-5 favorite; better suited for one mile
    * If OFF the TURF go with #9-Saratoga Bob (8-1); #6-Belfour (5-1); #4-Spartianos (10-1)

Race 5 is the Shine Again Stakes

  1. #4 – Cairenn (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Bit off more than she could chew when trying a G1 at Sar, trailing from start to finish; comes back to earth and returns to her favorite track (7:3-3-1)
  2. #2 – Barley Jack (10-1): Made short work out of PA-bred Allowance foes when prohibitive favorite following strong wining effort over Lrl oval; if track is kind to speed this gal is worth using
  3. #7 – Tweeting (5-2): Lone runner on card for trainer J. Navarro (37% in ’18) who made a mockery of Mth meet winning at a 45% clip; this filly won latest by 12 as 2nd & 3rd-place finishers won next outing 

Race 6 is the Challedon Stakes

  1.   #3 – Glory Stars (5-1): Gutsy $50k claim by leading trainer C. Gonzalez tries to get immediate dividends; longshot winner two back by a neck over #6 in here
  2. #5 – Top of Mind (9-2): Lightly raced, quality 6-year-old gelding typically wants more ground but trainer R. Jenkins gets his runners are fit first outing after a layoff
  3. #10 – Rockinn On Bye (6-1): Made a furious, late rally in Tim bull ring to come up just under a length short of winner who came back to run a creditable fourth in G3 DeFrancis Dash

Race 7 IF the G3 BWI Turf Cup is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Projected (7-5): Returns to defend title as rallied to prevail as 6-5 favorite; will take jockey J. Bravo along for the ride this year; missed by a head in G2 at Sar in latest outing; could be vulnerable on a less than firm turf
  2. #8 – Conquest Pantera (6-1): Has a shot to dethrone the king after late run in G3 turf sprint turf at KD; gets back to a more familiar distance in which he’s been ITM in two G3’s north of the border
  3. #10 – Doctor Mounty (20-1): Dangerous (25%) trainer/jock duo in McGaughey/Boyce have had success on this turf course (2:1-1-0) with fella, most recently runner-up in similar stakes this spring
    * If OFF the TURF go with #2-Grasshoppin (3-1); #4-Abiding Star (10-1); #5-O Dionysus (10-1) 

Race 8 IF the Bald Eagle Derby is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Admission Office (5-2): Royally bred for turf as well as to get this grueling 1 ½ mile distance; trainer C. Brown runner seems to get better the further he races; second start with blinkers
  2. #8 – Nakamura (6-1): Runner-up in latest behind top pick over a yielding Sar turf course; will also go postward for the second time with blinkers
  3. #4 – Channel Cat (2-1): Claim to fame is twice racing a few lengths behind top 3-year-old turf start Catholic Boy, both in graded stakes; won $400k stakes at KD in latest for trainer T. Pletcher
    * If OFF the TURF this event has the potential to be a Walkover

Race 9 IF the All Brandy Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1. #15 – My Sistersledge (4-1): This gal doesn’t get in high gear in deep stretch but in here that should work well as there’s plenty of gals eager to lead the way
  2.  #8 – Caught Dream’n (15-1): Makes turf and two-turn debut after being transferred to trainer G. Motion who will also saddle the #2; daughter of Blame out of a Malibu Moon mare should take to turf like a duck to water
  3. #2 – Peach of a Gal (12-1): A head scratcher as to why she’d be shipped back to WO to race in a stakes at 30-1 and ran to those odds; lone start on Lrl turf was a win v. restricted allowance foes
    * If OFF the TURF go with #10-Irish Access (6-1); #8-Caught Dream’n (15-1); #5-Saint Main Street (9-2) 

Race 10

  1.  #5 – Angelinas Star (7-2): Impressive debut when runner-up at maiden bottom at Lrl then failed as favorite at Tim in two-turn sprint on multi-class step up as PLACE and SHOW finishers came back to run 1-2 yesterday at this level
  2.  #6 – Louise (5-2): Game filly who has refused to win (9:0-4-1), unable to carry speed from gate-to-wire BUT this is her first at this shorter distance on dirt
  3.  #1/1A – Expect Wonderful/Princess Donna (8-5): “Wonderful” has three SHOW efforts from 3 starts but latest came 13-months ago; “Donna” is a MD-bred FTS by Midas Touch been steadily working since late June

Race 11

  1. #4 – Measured (2-1): Has faced and held his own against much better of late; only concern is ability to get the one-mile distance
  2. #7 – Stolen Love (6-1): Traffic troubles in first start after trainer E. Maher $25k claim of this 8-year-old gelding; could try to steal it while using this as a tune-up for a MD Million race next month
  3. #2 – General Downs (3-1): Makes Lrl his fourth different stop in five 2018 outings; has improved since being under the care of trainer K. Rubley

Race 12

  1. #6 – Ticker Tape Parade (8-1): A pair of fourth-place finishes since claim, most recent effort at this level as Post Time favorite gets a chance to redeem himself
  2. #4 – Menacing (8-5): Claimed at Ind for $10k by trainer K. Magee (21% first after claim) when missing by a head as 4-5 favorite; steps up a level where and this isn’t Ind anymore 
  3. #3 – War Wings (5-2): Struggled this summer at Mth both on and off the turf relocates to Lrl, landing in trainer C. Gonzalez’s barn; C. Carrasco, gets 42% of trainers runners to Winners’ Circle

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday September 28th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 349 for 1202 (29.03%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $2.80
    • R2: $9.00
    • R3: $6.20
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $4.80
    • R6: $22.40
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $4.60
    • R9: $8.20
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $16.60 (cost: $18).
  • BEST BET of the Day (120:34-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Polite Pearl (9th race: 9-5 M/L; 6-5 PT) was nudged clear after a sixteenth, rated kindly in the two path, turned away threats from both sides leaving the three-eighths, opened up a bit nearing the quarter pole, widened when put to stout urging inside the three sixteenths then held firm while under steady left handed rousing the final seventy yards, drawing away by three-and-one-half-lengths and returned $4.60 to WIN, $3.80 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (115:21-20-13; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Sweethearted (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) was outrun and finished seventh.

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