The GQ Approach – Laurel September 28

by | Sep 27, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,361
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8/ #6 – Polite Pearl (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#2 – Sweethearted (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 8, 9, 11 w/ 2, 4, 5  ($18)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 3, 7 w/ 9, 10, 11 w/ 2, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 4: 2, 5, 6 w/ 6 w/ 4, 5 w/ 1, 3, 8 ($9)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 4, 5 w/ 1, 3, 8  ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Introduced (4-5): Connections must have thought she was something special to ship her to Sar for debut as she was second best and well-backed (4-1); earned an impressive 85 BRIS#
  2. #8 – Tel Aviv (15-1): Saw this one in paddock at Tim prior to debut being treated like a future start by trainer J. Runco who conditions hundreds each year and has over 4,000 winners
  3. #9 – Tempted by Tito’s (20-1): No shot in debut at Tim going 4f when stumbled and bumped at the start; like that this daughter of Temple City gets the grass
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #11-Introduced (4-5); #8-Tel Aviv (15-1); #9-tempted by Tito’s (20-1)

Race 2 IF the Jamestown Stakes is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Ready to Run (2-1): One of two in here with two turf starts from as many outings; this one gets blinkers for second time and is capable of gate-to-wire victory
  2. #3 – Tolaga Bay (6-1): No Lasix today nor in debut when earning SHOW purse going one mile on Mth turf while earning; will need to improve on cut back to graduate in this stakes event
  3. #8 – Drosselmoon (10-1): Makes third start, previous two on turf; latest not so good against open MSW in contrast to decent debut run v. VA-breds like today
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #4-Bear Trappe (7-2); #5-River Gal (3-1); #2-Ready to Run (2-1)

Race 3

  1. #1 – Dutch Blitz (7-2): Exits a brief layoff to return to dirt competition with R. Chiappe aboard who has guided this gelding to a victory and two runner-up finishes in three trips
  2. #7 – Double Sky (4-1): Pen-based runner makes Lrl debut in twelfth career start, seeks natural Hat Trick
  3. #3 – Mr. Fixit (6-1): Three-year-old beaten favorite v. peers at Sar faces elders for just second time, finishing 5th less than 4-lengths behind winner in Alw5000s contest in mud at Bel

Race 4 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – D’wildcat Sunshine (15-1): No worse than fourth in three previous turf outings; willing to ignore latest dirt start at Tim 
  2. #2 – Flyingontheground (5-2): Appears to be Lone Speed racing on the Lrl lawn where she graduated in June with today’s pilot, J. Toledo back aboard for first time since
  3. #7 – Veil Dance (10-1): Lone runner on card for S. Lake/C. Cedeno combo who have reached Winners’ Circle at a 22% clip at Lrl over the past year
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Cocktail Waitress (5-1); #11-Out of Juice (20-1); #9-A Star At Last (30-1)

Race 5

  1. #2 – Sweethearted (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Didn’t embarrass herself on huge step up in class in first effort after D. Haughton $5k claim; has the back class to give another good account but shaky on an off track (6:0-0-3)
  2. #7 – Towson (5-1): Lightbulb Theory is in play here as she finally graduated in twelfth start after hitting the board in 8 of 11 previous outings
  3. #5 – Hot Friesia (2-1): Loses riding services of K. Gomez to aforementioned #7 and is 0 for 11 at Lrl but recent races versus similar makes her a threat

Race 6 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Nina’s Patience (10-1): Just 1 for 22 on turf but was runner-up in only previous start on Lrl lawn; hated slop at Mth in latest 
  2. #2 – Bourbonstreetlady (8-1): Talent on turf being underestimated at this distance as her late run potential was stymied when steadied twice
  3. #5 – It’s a Doozy (4-1): Third race after brief layoff and steps up a level after last two were washed off the turf at Del; reunited w/ E. Prado who was aboard for runner-up finish two back
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-Bourbonstreetlady (4-1); #8-Cherokee Fire (20-1); #6-Petticoatsnpistols (6-1) 

Race 7

  1. #2 – Star Seed Child (8-5): Couldn’t get the job done in the Tim bull ring when sent off 9-5 second choice on drop from $40kMCL to today’s $25kMCL; trainer tries to get first win at Lrl in past year (0 for 4)
  2. #5 – Simonela (9-2): Has earned over $68k as a 20-race veteran without entering Winners’ Circle; second start following 5-month layoff; been ITM in all starts at this level
  3. #6 – Blame Break (5-2): Beaten favorite at CT v. WV-bred MSW runners has managed to pick up minor shares in all seven fast and off track starts

Race 8

  1. #6 – Polite Pearl (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Speed of the speed in this event; nearly stole the $75k Tim Distaff stakes in latest which was first try after trainer K. Patterson $25k claim, who’s 31% in 2nd race after claim
  2. #5 – Lady by Choice (5-2): Third start after layoff, comes off sharp bridesmaid effort at this level; should get favorable pace scenario to catch early speed in final strides 
  3. #2 – Finding Perfection (12-1): Climbing BRIS#s while flip-flopping starts on and off the turf, not by design; will like an off track for her gate-to-wire try

Race 9

  1. #5 – Shelly Island (9-2): Wide trip when going just 4 furlongs in latest and drops a level; trainer J. Salzman, Jr. turns to fifth different in jock for this gelding’s sixth start
  2. #4 – Unequivocal (3-1): Multi-level drop after worst defeat of three race career; might be able to blame extra distance, sloppy surface or adding blinkers; the latter stays on today
  3. #7 – Bay of Rocks (6-1): Adds Lasix for fourth career outing; will likely be leading the pack into the first turn with E. Gonzalez aboard as he was two back when led until mid-stretch at 51-1

Race 10

  1. #3 – Publishanditerate (3-1): Steep class drop to bottom to pay the barn bill as this gelding makes just third start since trainer M. Eppler $10k claim over 15-months ago
  2. #1/1A – Rapunzel’s Cat/French’s Quest (4-1): “Quest” carries the ML odds load for this duo following a dull third at this level on drop; gets rider upgrade to T. McCarthy  
  3.  #8 – My Pal Jerry (9-2): Willing to forgive latest loss when out of his element in a sprint; returns to better one-mile distance to be a threat but needs pace help

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday September 23rd at Laurel had 8 winners from the 12-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 347 for 1192 (29.11%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $30.40
    • R2: $8.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $3.40
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.00
    • R7: $3.20
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $3.40
    • R10: $6.20
    • R11: $3.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $105.00 (cost: $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (119:33-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) River Deep (9th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-5 PT) stalked the pace from the inside, challenged leaving the half mile pole, moved to even terms at the seven-sixteenths, took the nod nearing the three-eighths pole, raced clear into the lane, drew off in the upper stretch, then taken in hand for the final sixteenths to best his closest rival by eight-and-one-half-lengths and returned $3.40 to WIN, $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (114:21-20-13; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Brazen Dancer (3rd race: 5-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) raced just off the pace toward the outside, bid nearing the three-eighths pole, was carried out approaching the head of the lane then lugged in while flattening out finished fourth.

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