The GQ Approach – Laurel September 22

by | Sep 22, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $755.10
  • Super High 5: $858.10
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 11/ #6 – Elsa (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#6 – Scuba (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 8, 11 w/ 1, 2, 5  ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 3, 8 w/ 12, 13, 14 w/ 3, 7 ($9)
    • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 7, 10 w/ 1, 7, 9 w/ 1, 6,  11 ($13.50)
    • Race 9 – 50-cent Pick 5: 9, 10 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 6, 9 w/ 2, 4 w/ 3, 5, 8 ($36)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 12:30pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Astrea (9-2): Huge turn around in form when she returned to the turf in latest; loses service s of X-Man to the #6 but 5 lb. bug R. Gutierrez looking to make a name for himself in MD
  2. #8 – Starship Yenta (8-1): Has picked up a check in all ten starts; the hood goes back on after racing without it in last two; look for her to make presence known in the final furlong
  3. #10 – Reiltin Oir (9-5): Nearly pulled 13-1 upset in on stretch out and step up in second start for conditioner M. Eppler; drops back to level and distance where she was bridesmaid two back

Race 2

  1. #2 – Rosuri (5-1): Vet scratch last week when entered against lesser; not concerned as one look at replay from debut showed greenness and talent despite fifth-place finish; adds blinkers
  2. #1 – Summer Smile (3-1): Stumble at start of 4-furlong dash compromised her chances in last outing, still getting the SHOW purse as the runner-up came back to graduate v. weaker than these 
  3. #5 – Coqueta (5-2): Second start with blinkers and getting saddled by R. Bailes after being bridesmaid against $40kMCL; drops back to level she was claimed for two back 

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Polar Jet (5-2): Gelded since last start nearly 4-months ago; makes turf debut in thirteenth career start; if off track form transfers to turf, her best BRIS# (100) came on a muddy Lrl oval 
  2. #8 – Censure (8-1): Deep Closer running style got this one in trouble when stepping up to face similar; a clean trip could earn him win #5 in his tenth trip on the Lrl grass
  3. #2 – Jareth (7-2): Has matured under the conditioning of K. Rubley since leaving Canada (WO); has taken to the Lrl turf w/o a win but that’s only a matter of time… possibly here

Race 4 is the $100k Laurel Futurity ON THE TURF

  1. #14 – Order and Law (6-1): A runner who made their debut in a stakes races which was scheduled for the turf, stayed in and completed the Super when 42-1 gets this Cappers nod in a similar spot here though he’s still a maiden, missing by a neck on the Prx dirt oval 
  2. #13 – Absolved (6-1): Barns go through highs and lows, right now the C. Gonzalez barn is sky high having multiple winners in the past two racings days at Lrl; this one has turf pedigree to be successful in grass debut
  3. #12 – Market Bubble (7-2): NY-bred cost a pretty penny ($375k in March at OBS) and paid immediate dividends winning debut on Bel turf v. fellow state breds; will need to improve

Race 5

  1. #3 – Top Czar (1-5): Obvious pick of the day as this $25kMCL came up very light; second start with blinkers following two tries at Sar; returns to Lrl where he was third in debut v. MSW
  2. #7 – Pro Riot (8-1): Has most experience with four starts like top pick and makes second start with hood as well; has the look of wanting more distance but gets just another 1/16th more today
  3. #4 – Relentless Lion (10-1): Fourth in debut versus a level higher; trainer D. Barr hasn’t won with a second-time starter in quite a while but if top pick stumbles, he could shock the world

Race 6 is the $150k All Along Stakes ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – My Impression (6-1): Won lone effort on Lrl lawn in G3 event two years ago; 0 for 4 in ’18 but have faith that G. Stevens will do well first-time riding for Shug McGaughey
  2. #7 – Stormy Victoria (3-1): Always well backed but just two wins in the last ten efforts; has been exclusively facing graded and minor stakes foes at the major venues but not convinced she wants to go this far (2:0-1-0) 
  3. #1 – Lift Up (5-1): hard to fault a runner who is 5 for 5 at this distance; exits G3 event where she may have had more of an issue with added distance than the competition

Race 7 is the $100k Laurel Dash ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Dubini (4-1): Cannot argue with Morning Line oddsmaker here as the stretch out to 6 furlongs appears to suit his running style the best
  2. #7 – Tombelaine (9-2): Lone entry for trainer R. Diodoro shipping in from Bel; a prudent $62,500 claim three back won in first off that claim (OC$80k) then tired over Sar soft sod in G3; has back class to compete v. these
  3. #1 – Fielder (10-1): Rough rail assignment for first-time rider J. Pimentel to negotiate clean trip but skilled jock gets the most out of turf runners in big races; biggest challenge to see if he belongs

Race 8 is the $100k Laurel Turf Cup ON THE TURF

  1.  #6 – Scuba (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ An unlikely choice in here (4:1-0-0 on turf) with sub-par speed figures with last turf outing over 18-months ago but has class and stamina on his side; been working in earnest at CD last two months while pointing to this event
  2. #11 – Tizzarunner (8-1): First time travelling this 1 1/2 miles but has bloodlines to get it; 2 wins from 3 tries on the Lrl turf course is half the battle
  3.  #1 – Final Copy (5-1): Turf BRIS#s have been ascending as this gray earned career best (101) in latest in the G2 Nijinsky at WO when fourth; 0 for 5 at the distance but just missed by a nose v. similar

Race 9 is the $100k Sensible Lady Turf Dash ON THE TURF

  1.   #9 – Fear No Evil (10-1): May have bounced off career best effort when latest came off the turf or the fact she got mugged at the break; talented filly is 2 for 2 on Lrl turf and blossoming during her 4-year-old campaign
  2. #10 – Smiling Causeway (9-5): Took on the boys in G3 Turf Monster but couldn’t keep pace; should find these gals much easier to handle; lost by a nose tow back in G2 at this distance
  3.  #7 – Compelled (3-1): Shipped in from SoCal after last outing in July, shows nice work tab since;    gives 110% every race, OTB just once in nine stakes starts which was fifth by less than three-lengths

Race 10 is the G3 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash

  1.  #2 – Sweetontheladies (10-1): Field is full of early speed so this contest sets up for a Closer and colt fits the bill; add HOF rider G. Stevens who flew in for four mounts on the card, which one ya think convinced him to make the trip? There are no X Y Jet or Imperial Hint level talent in here
  2.  #7 – The Man (8-1): Stakes success has come against restricted company while speed figs measure up to graded stakes level; versatile running style allows him to sit off a potential hot early pace  
  3.  #3 – Colonel Sharp (15-1): Trainer H. McMahon has done wonders with this gelding who answers every call as he’s stepped up the class ladder; biggest challenge of career and gets perfect pace scenario

Race 11 is the $100k Selima Stakes ON THE TURF

  1.   #6 – Elsa (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Appears to be a turf superstar in the making based on pedigree and just two turf sprints; should get better with more distance and get a little bit more (1/16th) here
  2.   #9 – Helen (10-1): Royally bred for the turf and finally gets first chance to strut her stuff on the Lrl sod; has improved speed figure-wise in each start
  3. #10 – Monkeys Uncle (12-1): Connections have a long history of buying and developing quality turf runners, so why should one not believe this $300k daughter of Uncle Mo out of an After Market mare be another?

Race 12

  1. #4 – Sunman (8-1): Showed late interest after poor start in debut when sent off at odds of 7-2; getting two more furlongs will help based on pedigree
  2. #2 – Three Phase (8-5): Gelded since last start on Aug. 9th; runner-up in last four outings makes one question if this runner lacks the will to win; stretch out to 6 furlongs may help /em>
  3. #6 – Cool Man Cletus (5-2): Speed figs continue to climb as he missed graduating by a nose in MSW event at The Big T; drops back in for a tag but will need to dip into pedigree for more stamina

Race 13

  1. #5 – Gfour (6-1): Taking a WAG that she didn’t care for muddy track and turf isn’t for her either; like that R. Montanez remains in the irons
  2. #8 – Moxie (7-5): Just 1 for 18 lifetime and lone win came on turf; runner-up versus similar at Mth when encountering some traffic at quarter pole 
  3. #3 – Lonely Drifter (5-2): First start after trainer J. Robb $12,500 claim who recognized this filly is bred for more distance and gets it on obligatory step up while in “jail”

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday September 21st at Laurel had 8 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 340 for 1167 (29.13%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $13.80
    • R2: $8.80
    • R3: $5.00
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $6.00
    • R6: $5.40
    • R7: $6.20
    • R8: $3.00
    • R9: $5.40
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (117:32-30-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Regal Quality (9th race: 5-2 M/L; 8-5  PT) off slowly, lagged near down the backstretch, was asked to pick it up on the turn travelling 4-wide entering the stretch while aggressively ridden in the final furlong was able to catch the late leader in the final strides and returned $5.40 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (112:21-20-13; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Gingeresk (6th race: 5-1 M/L) was a late SCRATCH.

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