The GQ Approach – Laurel September 16

by | Sep 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,299.02
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9/ #5 – Bonus Points (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 11 /#8 – Wiggle  Room (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 6 w/ 3, 6, 7  ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 6, 10 w/ 3, 6, 11 w/ 6 ($3)
    • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 5: 3, 4, 6 w/ 2 w/ 5  w/ 5  w/ 4, 5, 8, 11 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 5th, 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1 – Gorse (7-2): Different running style on dirt then when on turf; should be on the lead today racing on main oval; R. Sillaman/S. Russell combo have been winning at 24% clip   for the past year
  2. #6 – Done Acting (15-1): 2 for 2 since coming off a brief vacation in early Summer; first time facing open claiming company 
  3. #9 – Gadget Man (5-1): MTO entry will be happy to race on a fast track for the first time since early July, when he won as 11-1 longshot

Race 2

  1. #7 – Waiting for a Star (3-1): Home/MD-bred FTS for Sagamore Farm by Ghostzapper oout of the JPN-bred mare Evening Sky; this outfit wins at a 30% clip with debut runners
  2. #3 – Indigo Queen (6-1): Got a good education in debut on grass here last month when stumbling at the start; gets Lasix for trainer L. Gaudet who wins with 21% of her two-year-olds 
  3. #6 – Miss Philly Dilly (8-5): Strong effort to be fast closing runner-up in debut at Prx but final fraction not that impressive

Race 3

  1. #2 – Great Country (5-2): Continues to race w/o Lasix coming into fourth start, being ITM in all previous three; runner-up in last effort at The Big T, SHOW runner came back to graduate in next start
  2. #1 – Glengar (2-1): MD-bred FTS by Freedom Child out of a Northern Wolf mare; shows blazing works a few months back but none in over a month?! Quite unconventional leading up to debut
  3. #6 – Bobs Your Uncle (3-1): Confident move in first start after trainer C. Gonzalez claim to step up a level when out of “jail” then again, this event came up light; first time on dirt and spiriting; second start with blinkers

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Super Dude (7-2): Speaks volumes for this L. Rice trainee who stays in this off the turf event, shipping down from NY; ITM in all four starts; gelded since last start which was 4-months ago
  2. #6 – Zinger (10-1): Appears to the “Turf Kiss of Death” as his last 7 of 8 efforts came when entered for turf but came off; fourth of a six horse field in latest at Sar v. $50kN3L  
  3. #4 – Grecian Prince (9-2): Protected in this optional claimer as he makes first start since early May; always picks up at least a minor share

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Beyond Forever (6-1): Though 0 for 7 on main ovals and just 1 for 20 lifetime, catches a soft group of gals 
  2. #3 – Mixways (9-2): Beat four fillies and mares in debut, a $20kMCL off the turf event for trainer G. Motion; went gate-to-wire in pedestrian early fractions and picked it up late to prevail
  3. #6 – Vinny Gorgeous (12-1): Earned diploma in latest at The Big T as she romped by 9+ lengths; should be at the shoulder of leaders in early stages 

Race 6

  1. #6 – King of the Jungle (7-5): Goes for the natural Hat Trick as his last two victories came at The Big T against foes who have held their own in next Lrl starts
  2. #1 – Junction (2-1): Beaten favorite in last two efforts settling for PLACE purse; just 1 for 12 going to turns; jock A. Cruz might try a gate-to-wire trip if no rivals want early lead
  3. #7 – Mid Ocean (10-1): Only runner in this contest who exits a tougher, open claimer v. conditional kind; barn is 0-fer a few dozen this year so quell your expectations for a win

Race 7

  1. #3 – Be Back (7-2): Honest runner since coming to trainer Charlie Frock’s barn; runner-up in this condition behind convincing winner (Bungalow) yesterday at the next level
  2. #4 – Cent Comm (9-2): There’s a theme here as this gelding chased Bungalow as well going one mile when dropped to this level in latest; got SHOW purse in lone try at this distance
  3. #6 – Flankenstein (8-1): Turf-to-dirt and drops to bottom; prior to one year layoff showed early speed on dirt

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – Bridgewater (8-5): MTO entry gets a chance to redeem herself after being bridesmaid as Post Time favorite in latest
  2. #4 – Sarah’s Treasure (3-1): After a huge day on Saturday, trainer C. Gonzalez looking to continue successful weekend with this gal in second start after claim; was three-lengths behind top pick in last outing
  3. #11 – Holiday Hopes (12-1): Decent dirt tries warrants a look in here for a minor share

Race 9

  1. #5 – Bonus Points (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Final tune-up for MD Million Classic; might need some help for an honest pace to avoid chasing lone speed in vain
  2. #6 – Twocubanbrothersu (2-1): Got cooked on front end early in minor stakes at Del; won’t have that kind of pressure in here
  3. #1 – Chief of Staff (10-1): Needs to run one of those 90+ BRIS#s from his days at OP; appears to be the one who could pressure #6 early, unless #2 (John Jones) finds his old form

Race 10

  1.  #5 – Isotope (1-1): Bel-based runner makes Lrl debut in a very easy spot; trainer J. Englehart always ships with good intentions (8:4-2-1) 
  2.  #3 – Pearl Gem (9-2): Hasn’t run a bad race in four lifetime outings; stretched out nicely versus similar in Lrl slop for gate-to-wire score
  3.  #2 – Head for the Shore (10-1): Lightbulb Theory in play as this filly finally graduated in her 17th career start, albeit at The Big T but she’d been knocking on the door for quite a while                          

Race 11

  1. #8 – Wiggle Room (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Third start since layoff though both previous ones were on the grass, she has a runner-up effort from three fast track starts; tends to get going late
  2. #5 – Cherokee Fire (8-1): Her foes lack early speed; even though her stamina is questionable when trying to go this 6 furlong distance, G. Whitacre might be able to nurse her along slow, early fractions; then again pigs might fly one day too
  3. #11 – To Be Honest (3-1): Continues to drop, now at the bottom locally seeking second trip to Winners’ Circle, the first came here in her last fast track outing on the Lrl main oval v. $25kMCL

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday September 15th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 12-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 334 for 1146 (29.14%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1:  xxx
    • R2: $3.20
    • R3: $2.80
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $4.60
    • R7: $4.00
    • R8: $3.60
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $6.00
    • R11: xxx
    • R12: $2.60
    • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (115:31-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Love N Kimestry (10th race: 2-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) saved ground advancing to the half mile marker, eased out and took aim of the three pronged duel mid turn, swept to command four to five wide entering the stretch, lugged in when going clear in mid-stretch, held sway under a drive to win by two-and-three-quarters-lengths and returned $6.00 to WIN, $3.00 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (111:21-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Qualify (4th race: 12-1 M/L; 10-1 PT) moved up along the rail near the five eighths and joined CAUSE HE’S WESTERN for command, dueled through moderate fractions, kept up the fight to the three sixteenths then weakened to finish fourth.

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