The GQ Approach – Laurel September 15

by | Sep 15, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $803.59
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10/ #4 – Love N Kimestry (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#2 – Qualify (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 3, 4 w/ 5, 10, 11  ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 3, 6 w/ 1, 2, 5 w/ 3, 5, 10 ($13.50)
    • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 5: 6, 7 w/ 2, 6 w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 2, 3, 8  w/ 1, 2 ($36)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 12:30pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Hall Pass (6-1): Gelded since last start when sent off as Post Time favorite and woefully failed; second start with blinkers and displays a bullet work just a few days ago
  2. #4 – Snidely (9-2): As in “Whiplash”? MD-bred by Alternation comes home for debut after a steady worktab at Bel for trainer J. Englehart who ships with good intentions (7:4-2-1)
  3. #6 – Sky Magician (4-1): Runner-up in debut when even the connections didn’t believe in him (21-1); should move forward off that effort following a nice 4 furlong work since

Race 2 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Stratosphera (10-1): Late rally in latest versus lesser was interrupted by traffic in the final sixteenth; should handle step up back to the level where she missed by less than two-lengths in debut
  2. #11 – Reconsider It (3-1): Tough to put this 0 for 16 filly on top, especially as the Morning Line favorite who makes Lrl debut after coming up short versus NY-breds; needs to catch early speed
  3. #5 – Happy Lantern (15-1): Cuts back in distance from initial two turn try when equipped with blinkers which put early speed into her not present in first two career outings
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #9-Pass a Mento (5-1); #4-Tilaka (15-1); #3-Simonela (15-1)

Race 3

  1. #6 – Malibu Surprise (5-1): All rivals have early speed so this Malibu Moon filly can lag in the back as she’s done her past two starts then rallied only to be a bridesmaid; today she’s the bride  
  2. #3 – Free Kitty (8-5): Rice trained filly as tested turf, off tracks and fast tracks thirteen times north of the Mason-Dixon Line without a win; can boast career best BRIS# on a fast track
  3. #1 – Lady Breanna (8-1): Best previous outing came when breaking from the rail as she will today; cut back to one mile might help as she exits synthetic surface of Pid  

Race 4

  1. #2 – Qualify (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Been more than four years since this 8-year-old visited the Winners’ Circle, over three years since he raced on dirt, the only time he was OTB on dirt (7:3-1-2) and that resulted in a 14-month layoff; might be way off base but worth a shot just on back class
  2. #1 – Matador (5-2): Winner of last two yet still eligible for this condition has they came at a lower level; has competed against better talent than these in the past
  3. #5 – Cause He’s Western (15-1): Last month made first start in just over a year which he only beat one rival but that was in a sprint which isn’t his strength; was previously 2 for 2 at Lrl

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Love to Share (2-1): Suspicious, steep class drop to bottom level turf maidens and switch to trainer who is looking to breaking his 0 for 22 when first time saddling a runner; adds up to a false favorite but the others don’t look promising
  2. #11 – Lill Mave (5-1): Continues to drop in class while racing exclusively on turf (9:0-3-2); been competitive since transferred to A. Farrior barn but diploma remains out of reach
  3. #9 – Agitate (20-1): Barely ran a lick in debut sprinting against much better; bloodlines indicate distance and grass which she gets here; Karamanos stays aboard for A. Ferris wins at 22% clip with first-time routers
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Artiful Move (9-2); #5-Streets On Fire (15-1); #3-Lemon Avocado (15-1)

Race 6 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – Intrepid Citizen (10-1): Woke up in last outing with bug aboard thanks to drop into $8k Claimer, after being boxed in on the turn; likes some “give” in the turf; major jock upgrade
  2. #6 – Brickyard Kitten (5-2): has won 4 of last five outings with lone loss a runner-up effort all in these types of Starter events as BRIS#s have climbed; needs pace help to make patented late run
  3. #2x – Silver Dagger (3-1): Goes for fourth consecutive win as he was Post Time favorite in last three, all on Del turf; trainer J. Ness has kept this one in in top shape per bullet work
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-Worth His Salt (3-1); #10-Gold Man (5-2); 1A-Spirit Grabber (2-1)

Race 7

  1. #4 – Key Mono (8-5): Bumped at the start in latest is reason he didn’t get the early lead and gave up quickly; there are no others in here who can match strides with him early or catch him late
  2. #6 – Martywiththeparty (9-5): Huge class drop from restrict allowance company; this 4-year-old hasn’t been paying the bills so connections have put on best poker face daring any takers for $5k
  3. #1 – Drive At Nite (8-1): Unfamiliar spot on the rail for this Closer making third start after layoff; should make presence known late but only to grab a minor share

Race 8 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Elusive Joni (7-2): Beaten favorite with a legit excuse in latest; should get an ideal pace scenario has plenty of foes in here will ensure a quick early pace
  2. #7 – Keep Your Distance (3-1): Had a horrific run early in latest, squeezed and checked repeatedly in dirt stakes at The Big T; will be tough if she can psychologically recover from that experience
  3. #1 – Northern Eclipse (8-1): Third race after layoff but the first two have not been encouraging even though they were restricted stakes, the latest off the turf; jock hasn’t lost the faith
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #7-Keep Your Distance (3-1); #6-Elusive Joni (7-2); #2-Lady By Choice (6-1)

Race 9

  1. #2 – Love’s Legend (7-2): Last race on dirt resulted in a 14-length victory at this level but only against three foes; hasn’t been OTB since but all on turf; trainer overdue for another “W”
  2. #6 – Untaken (9-5): On paper is the best in here but races aren’t run on paper; last two at Sar have been adventurous yet finished well; just 2 for 19 lifetime and 3 times runner-up at Lrl in as many tries
  3. #4 – Setubal (4-1): Flip a coin between this one and #7 as to who to use beyond top two; this one beat up on a questionable OC40k crew at Del after being a nose behind the aforementioned #7

Race 10

  1.  #4 – Love N Kimestry (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Graduating in lucky number 13th start will certainly flatter the form of top pick in Race 11, as this one was runner-up to him in last outing, earning career best BRIS#
  2.  #6 – Scoop N Nailz (10-1): Beaten favorite going 4 furlongs when tardy from the gate but showed good energy late; trainer switch from 21% to 6% this year gives reason to rethink this selection
  3.  #7 – Tarahumar (12-1): Purely on class drop alone then again losing debut by 41-lengths for $25k and then by 15-lengths trying grass is hardly a ringing endorsement for class drop play

Race 11

  1. #2 – Smart Two a T (9-2): Took all the early money in latest and didn’t disappoint, easily taking the field gate-to-wire with 10 lb. bug in the irons to break maiden; Lightbulb Theory in play?
  2. #3 – Stay On Point (5-2): Late-running sprinter who always comes flying in the stretch but the wire comes up too soon; maybe two races at Tim which has a short stretch will help now that he’s back at Lrl
  3. #8 – My Pal Jerry (6-1): Shorter distance than he’s accustomed to running but both 7 furlong tries were among his best efforts speed figure-wise while he took lead in mid-stretch in one of those

Race 12

  1. #1 – Valadier (7-5): Couldn’t seal the deal at Tim in gate-to-wire try for diploma; get 1/16th of a mile break in distance along with facing a motley group of non-winners
  2. #2 – Jericho Marsh (9-2): Trifecta of angles… turf-to-dirt, cut back from two turns and second start with blinkers; add in class relief and this gelding might be only threat to ruin top pick party  
  3. #7 – Worktab (4-1): Seems that prerequisite to train this one is having first name of Michael (Moore, Aro, Pino and now Jones, Jr.), all within past 9 months; was 5-lengths behind #1 in last outing when bobbled and bumped at the start

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday September 14th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 329 for 1134 (29.01%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $9.20
    • R2: $6.20
    • R3: $5.40
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $4.00
    • R6: $4.80
    • R7: $8.80
    • R8: $2.10
    • R9: $5.40
    • R10: $3.80
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R9-R10 $2 DOUBLE for $32.40 (cost: $8) and the R7-R10 50 cent Pick-4 for $18.60 (cost: $ 13.50).
  • BEST BET of the Day (114:30-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Nico Bree N Teej (7th race: 2-1 M/L; 1-1 PT) off a bit slow was rushed up to take a short lead while hounded by two rivals through the first half, extended that lead by a length at the head of the stretch but weakened in the final furlong to finish fourth
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (110:21-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Uncle Billy (5th race: 8-1 M/L) was picked for a price on the turf. Since the race was taken off the turf, no play. For the record, Uncle Billy ran fourth at 10-1.

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