The GQ Approach – Laurel September 14

by | Sep 14, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Off-track Record - When the track gets listed as sloppy, muddy, or good, bettors often fail to realize many horses perform better or worse versus racing on a track labeled as “fast."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #1 – Nico Bree N Teej (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#3 – Uncle Billy (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 10 w/ 2, 4 ($8)
    • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 4: 1, 2, 7 w/ w/ 6 w/ 3, 4, 7 w/ 3, 7, 8 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers, highs in mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Smokin Hot Factor (4-1): Hung late when going 6f on Lrl turf at this level; S. Russell will take the reins, subbing for the absent V. Carrasco; he’s a half to multiple turf stakes winning siblings so the talent should be there
  2. #5 – Jammer (6-1): There’s plenty of early speed in here for this gelding to make another late run; only use if we stay on the turf as he’s 7:0-0-0 on the main track
  3. #7 – Rule Yourself (8-1): Only class dropper off a turf a race but trainer change never gives this Capper a warm & fuzzy feeling; support the cutback to this distance (2:0-1-1) 
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Zig Zillion (7-2); #1-Waterhaven (5-1); #8-Crafty Estate (15-1)

Race 2

  1. #4 – Danz a Rebel (5-2): All summer the rumor was that trainer C. Lynch was loaded with talented two-year-olds; this Revolutionary colt might be one of them especially since the ML oddsmaker gives him the nod
  2. #2 – Follow the Dog (3-1): Nice runner-up effort in debut, succumbing to a colt whose connections are having Derby Dreams over; this one could flatter him here with a convincing score
  3. #5 – V.I.P. Ticket (10-1): MD-bred FTS by Windsor Castle out of a Cherokee’s Boy mare who won her debut; love the worktab that finishes with 5f from the gate; needs to overcome trainer J. O’Dwyer 0-fer 7 w/ MSW FTS 

Race 3 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Wise Men (9-2): Third start after 7-month layoff; returns to this level where rally fell a neck short catching winner who duplicated his feat in next outing
  2. #1 – Arkadag (3-1): Beaten 3-5 favorite when in against restricted MSW event taken off the turf; was 13th against top level maidens at FG in only turf try but clip heels, so giving him a pass
  3. #6 – Zaptuit (5-1): Tough to endorse this 0 for 18 gelding on top but has best career turf BRIS# of this bunch though it came over a year ago; gets at least a minor share versus these
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #1-Arkadag (3-1); #4-Telling Warrior (10-1); #10-Lovely Games (6-1)

Race 4

  1. #3 – Munny Time (2-1): Cintron had choice between this guy and #6, which tipped the scale in this geldings’ favor; debut BRIS# (80) was strong enough to think he’ll move forward off that
  2. #6 – Pudding (9-2): Troubled trip in turf sprint in latest against $40kMCL; returns to MSW and dirt where he SHOWed at Del two back; turned in a bullet work since last outing
  3. #4 – Simpson (8-5): Just one work since last effort 45 days ago where he missed by a neck as Post Time favorite… D’oh!!!

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Uncle Billy (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ A $360k yearling purchase 3 years ago was snatched up for $10k by trainer A. Farrior in latest outing, a third-place effort; finds perfect spot on grass where he earned an 82 BRIS# v. MSW sprinting at Dmr; first time going two-turns but bloodlines indicate he can handle it
  2. #5 – Swinging Star (6-1): Drops to lowest level of 14-race career while this So. Cal export makes third start for trainer M. Matz; chance for redemption after dull effort as 9-5 favorite in latest
  3. #11 – Uhwarrie Sky (6-1): Need to draw lines through last two which came off the turf; 2 for 4 on Lrl grass and gets R. Montanez back in irons who was aboard for win over $16kN2L three back
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #7-Kierland (15-1); #2-Three to Thirteen (7-2); #5-Swinging Star (6-1)

Race 6 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Gio Dude (5-1): Mth-based trainer K. Breen ships in for two races but believe this is the one who’s hoping to make the trip worth it; came to Lrl in July for same condition, got washed off turf yet stayed in earned the PLACE purse
  2. #5 – Mr. Bridger (5-1): Cuts back to distance of lone win on GP grass; beaten favorite at this level in latest outing when 3rd by 10-lengths shows trainer J. Cibelli hasn’t lost the faith; gets T. McCarthy
  3. #10 – Benevolent Prince (5-1): Turf specialist has been ITM his last four efforts since moving to trainer K. Rubley barn, earning a big (91) BRIS# in first try v. winners
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-His Royal Majesty (15-1); #12-Eastport (6-1); #1-Copper Wired (20-1)

Race 7

  1. #1 – Nico Bree N Teej (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Early speed from the rail couldn’t get the lead in first sprint in a while against state bred stakes runners; should be ready to take this group gate-to-wire today
  2. #7 – Home Run Maker (3-1): Lone win came on a “good” Bel oval; toss the turf try two back and believe a fourth-place finish in a N1x at Sar in latest sets this 3-year-old for success at Lrl; trainer J. Englehart ships to win (6:4-2-0 past year at Lrl) 
  3. #2 – You’re Killin Me (9-2): Lone entry on the Lrl card for Bel-based trainer R. Diodoro; N2L been picking up minor shares against tougher foes of late at Bel

Race 8

  1. #6 – Congrats Gal (2-5): Certainly not a lock as she failed as 4-5 favorite in minor stakes at Del but was second best after earning black-type in G3 Schuylerville at Sar to be a clear cut third in only start at this 6f distance
  2. #5 – Come On Callie (15-1): First start w/ blinkers and T. McCarthy in the irons; second start w/ Lasix; improved off debut maiden win speed figure-wise; will need top pick to regress
  3. #8 – Elysium (10-1): Visually impressive win when taken back along rail, deferring lead to early duelers, then swung wide to rally in stretch, a move she hadn’t displayed in five previous starts

Race 9

  1. #7 – Mesotherm (2-1): 5-year-old cost $400k as a yearling but didn’t make debut until 5-months ago; has done well (4:2-1-1) and gave trainer L. Gaudet first win at Sar last month in off the turf $50k Starter; can boast top BRIS Prime Power#
  2. #3 – Onemoregreattime (9-5): Can be flattered by #1 in race 7 today as this one was 2-lengtsh better than that one in last outing; back facing elders and will have company vying for early lead
  3. #4 – Regalian (2-1): Ten races on resume’ but all v. 2-year-old peers; popular in racing office being claimed four times, including for $20k out of latest, when a 6-length winner in mud at Sar

Race 10

  1.  #7 – Singinginstilettos (5-1): Nice middle move when going 6 1/2f at Tim v. similar as in here; should see her more forwardly placed with switch to J.D. Acosta in the irons
  2.  #8 – Sip of Sunshine (2-1): Refused to change leads late when bridesmaid at Tim as beaten 3-2 favorite when dropped to this level; early speed but having to go furthest distance of young career
  3.  #3 – Kim’s Pet (9-2): Compromised at the start versus better; takes multi-level drop though needs to find some stamina to earn diploma    

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday September 9th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 325 for 1124 (28.91%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $11.20
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: $4.20
    • R7: $4.80
    • R8: $40.20
    • R9: $10.00
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (113:30-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) City Gold (5th race: 9-5 M/L; 6-5 PT) set the pace well off the rail, was three-wide around the turn, drifted out near the eighth pole then  pulled away under steady urging to prevail by eight-and-one-half-lengths and returned $4.60 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (110:21-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Whiskey Wu (8th race: 20-1 M/L; 19-1 PT) angled in and moved up between rivals leaving the five-eighths, challenged for the lead a furlong later, dropped back mid-turn, then chased under a ride, shifted out six-wide for the drive, came back under right handed rousing, overtook the dueling leaders leaving the sixteenth marker, drew clear to win by two-lengths and returned $40.20 to WIN, $14.20 to PLACE and $7.00 to SHOW.

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