The GQ Approach – Laurel September 14

by | Sep 14, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7/ #1 – Nico Bree N Teej (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#3 – Uncle Billy (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 10 w/ 2, 4 ($8)
    • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 4: 1, 2, 7 w/ w/ 6 w/ 3, 4, 7 w/ 3, 7, 8 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers, highs in mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Smokin Hot Factor (4-1): Hung late when going 6f on Lrl turf at this level; S. Russell will take the reins, subbing for the absent V. Carrasco; he’s a half to multiple turf stakes winning siblings so the talent should be there
  2. #5 – Jammer (6-1): There’s plenty of early speed in here for this gelding to make another late run; only use if we stay on the turf as he’s 7:0-0-0 on the main track
  3. #7 – Rule Yourself (8-1): Only class dropper off a turf a race but trainer change never gives this Capper a warm & fuzzy feeling; support the cutback to this distance (2:0-1-1) 
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #10-Zig Zillion (7-2); #1-Waterhaven (5-1); #8-Crafty Estate (15-1)

Race 2

  1. #4 – Danz a Rebel (5-2): All summer the rumor was that trainer C. Lynch was loaded with talented two-year-olds; this Revolutionary colt might be one of them especially since the ML oddsmaker gives him the nod
  2. #2 – Follow the Dog (3-1): Nice runner-up effort in debut, succumbing to a colt whose connections are having Derby Dreams over; this one could flatter him here with a convincing score
  3. #5 – V.I.P. Ticket (10-1): MD-bred FTS by Windsor Castle out of a Cherokee’s Boy mare who won her debut; love the worktab that finishes with 5f from the gate; needs to overcome trainer J. O’Dwyer 0-fer 7 w/ MSW FTS 

Race 3 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Wise Men (9-2): Third start after 7-month layoff; returns to this level where rally fell a neck short catching winner who duplicated his feat in next outing
  2. #1 – Arkadag (3-1): Beaten 3-5 favorite when in against restricted MSW event taken off the turf; was 13th against top level maidens at FG in only turf try but clip heels, so giving him a pass
  3. #6 – Zaptuit (5-1): Tough to endorse this 0 for 18 gelding on top but has best career turf BRIS# of this bunch though it came over a year ago; gets at least a minor share versus these
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #1-Arkadag (3-1); #4-Telling Warrior (10-1); #10-Lovely Games (6-1)

Race 4

  1. #3 – Munny Time (2-1): Cintron had choice between this guy and #6, which tipped the scale in this geldings’ favor; debut BRIS# (80) was strong enough to think he’ll move forward off that
  2. #6 – Pudding (9-2): Troubled trip in turf sprint in latest against $40kMCL; returns to MSW and dirt where he SHOWed at Del two back; turned in a bullet work since last outing
  3. #4 – Simpson (8-5): Just one work since last effort 45 days ago where he missed by a neck as Post Time favorite… D’oh!!!

Race 5 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Uncle Billy (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ A $360k yearling purchase 3 years ago was snatched up for $10k by trainer A. Farrior in latest outing, a third-place effort; finds perfect spot on grass where he earned an 82 BRIS# v. MSW sprinting at Dmr; first time going two-turns but bloodlines indicate he can handle it
  2. #5 – Swinging Star (6-1): Drops to lowest level of 14-race career while this So. Cal export makes third start for trainer M. Matz; chance for redemption after dull effort as 9-5 favorite in latest
  3. #11 – Uhwarrie Sky (6-1): Need to draw lines through last two which came off the turf; 2 for 4 on Lrl grass and gets R. Montanez back in irons who was aboard for win over $16kN2L three back
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #7-Kierland (15-1); #2-Three to Thirteen (7-2); #5-Swinging Star (6-1)

Race 6 IF ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Gio Dude (5-1): Mth-based trainer K. Breen ships in for two races but believe this is the one who’s hoping to make the trip worth it; came to Lrl in July for same condition, got washed off turf yet stayed in earned the PLACE purse
  2. #5 – Mr. Bridger (5-1): Cuts back to distance of lone win on GP grass; beaten favorite at this level in latest outing when 3rd by 10-lengths shows trainer J. Cibelli hasn’t lost the faith; gets T. McCarthy
  3. #10 – Benevolent Prince (5-1): Turf specialist has been ITM his last four efforts since moving to trainer K. Rubley barn, earning a big (91) BRIS# in first try v. winners
    * If OFF THE TURF go with #2-His Royal Majesty (15-1); #12-Eastport (6-1); #1-Copper Wired (20-1)

Race 7

  1. #1 – Nico Bree N Teej (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Early speed from the rail couldn’t get the lead in first sprint in a while against state bred stakes runners; should be ready to take this group gate-to-wire today
  2. #7 – Home Run Maker (3-1): Lone win came on a “good” Bel oval; toss the turf try two back and believe a fourth-place finish in a N1x at Sar in latest sets this 3-year-old for success at Lrl; trainer J. Englehart ships to win (6:4-2-0 past year at Lrl) 
  3. #2 – You’re Killin Me (9-2): Lone entry on the Lrl card for Bel-based trainer R. Diodoro; N2L been picking up minor shares against tougher foes of late at Bel

Race 8

  1. #6 – Congrats Gal (2-5): Certainly not a lock as she failed as 4-5 favorite in minor stakes at Del but was second best after earning black-type in G3 Schuylerville at Sar to be a clear cut third in only start at this 6f distance
  2. #5 – Come On Callie (15-1): First start w/ blinkers and T. McCarthy in the irons; second start w/ Lasix; improved off debut maiden win speed figure-wise; will need top pick to regress
  3. #8 – Elysium (10-1): Visually impressive win when taken back along rail, deferring lead to early duelers, then swung wide to rally in stretch, a move she hadn’t displayed in five previous starts

Race 9

  1. #7 – Mesotherm (2-1): 5-year-old cost $400k as a yearling but didn’t make debut until 5-months ago; has done well (4:2-1-1) and gave trainer L. Gaudet first win at Sar last month in off the turf $50k Starter; can boast top BRIS Prime Power#
  2. #3 – Onemoregreattime (9-5): Can be flattered by #1 in race 7 today as this one was 2-lengtsh better than that one in last outing; back facing elders and will have company vying for early lead
  3. #4 – Regalian (2-1): Ten races on resume’ but all v. 2-year-old peers; popular in racing office being claimed four times, including for $20k out of latest, when a 6-length winner in mud at Sar

Race 10

  1.  #7 – Singinginstilettos (5-1): Nice middle move when going 6 1/2f at Tim v. similar as in here; should see her more forwardly placed with switch to J.D. Acosta in the irons
  2.  #8 – Sip of Sunshine (2-1): Refused to change leads late when bridesmaid at Tim as beaten 3-2 favorite when dropped to this level; early speed but having to go furthest distance of young career
  3.  #3 – Kim’s Pet (9-2): Compromised at the start versus better; takes multi-level drop though needs to find some stamina to earn diploma    

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday September 9th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 325 for 1124 (28.91%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $11.20
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: $4.20
    • R7: $4.80
    • R8: $40.20
    • R9: $10.00
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (113:30-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) City Gold (5th race: 9-5 M/L; 6-5 PT) set the pace well off the rail, was three-wide around the turn, drifted out near the eighth pole then  pulled away under steady urging to prevail by eight-and-one-half-lengths and returned $4.60 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (110:21-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Whiskey Wu (8th race: 20-1 M/L; 19-1 PT) angled in and moved up between rivals leaving the five-eighths, challenged for the lead a furlong later, dropped back mid-turn, then chased under a ride, shifted out six-wide for the drive, came back under right handed rousing, overtook the dueling leaders leaving the sixteenth marker, drew clear to win by two-lengths and returned $40.20 to WIN, $14.20 to PLACE and $7.00 to SHOW.

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