The GQ Approach – Laurel September 9

by | Sep 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,062.47
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5/ #2 – City Gold (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#8 – Whiskey Wu (20-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 8 w/ 6, 7 ($4)
    • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 4 w/ 2, 4, 5, 6 w/ 2 ($2)
    • Race 9 – $2 Double:  4, 6 w/ 1, 6, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain, highs in upper-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Comfy and Cozy (2-1): Trainer M. Matz filly stays in this off the turf $40kMCL event as she ran a creditable third sprinting on dirt in debut
  2. #6 – Ask Stacy (8-5): Adds Lasix after running greenly in the stretch in debut; strange that trainer M. Stidham keeps her in as his turf runners usually scratch in this situation
  3. #2 – Better Yet (10-1): Has the bloodlines to improve on a sloppy track but one never knows until they race on it as this gal shows she’s only worked when track has been fast

Race 2

  1. #7 – Parched Ghost (10-1): After three career outings, two not being the cleanest of trips and all sprinting, this class drop just might be enough to earn her diploma 
  2. #6 – Eye of the Wildcat (3-1): Third start after layoff, drops a back to level where she salvaged the SHOW purse three back which was last start on main oval
  3. #5 – Louise (7-5): Hard to take these low ML odds on an 0 for 8 filly being offered for less than the listed price ($14k v. $16k); weakened to third going this distance prior to faltering on turf

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Matter of Factor (5-1): MTO for trainer John Servis is protected in this optional claimer and is 1 for 1 on an off track which came 3-months ago at Prx v. $25kN2L
  2. #6 – Capt. Grider (6-1): May be good enough for a minor share as Prx-based gelding makes Lrl debut in 20th career start; connections like him enough to enter without the tag
  3. #7 – Get the W (4-1): Got minor shares in all three ’18 starts and did the same in only previous off track outing; leery as to why in for the tag but trainer A. Goldberg 22% coming off short layoff

Race 4

  1. #5 – My Good Man (4-1): One of two M. Eppler trainees in here was beaten favorite in latest sixth attempt to graduate, missing by half-length a 4-5 favorite; taking a WAG that stablemate (#2) was entered to make sure this race went
  2. #6 – Chateau (9-5): The Toddster who also owns this gelding is just 2 for 14 with runners at Lrl the past year and this one hasn’t raced since end of May at Pim when he got beat a head as even money favorite
  3. #2 – Smart Step (8-1): Best finish (third by one-length) came two back on a muddy Lrl surface when racing wide on the turn which is always good when Lrl is “off”; added distance should help

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #2 – City Gold (9-5): *** BEST BET *** A motley looking crew assembled for this $16kN2L and this K. Magee trainee has hit the board in all three since his $10k claim and catches the surface that rendered his only win
  2. #6 – The Walk (8-1): Has handled the sloppy going just fine in the past (3:0-1-0); don’t let record deceive you as he was in over his head in G3 Jerome in mud; will be forwardly placed  
  3. #3 – Chocomount (12-1): Form as gone south possibly due to being raced 12 times in 8-months but gelding has run decent on an off track in the past, so against this bunch could hit the board        

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Victory Chimes (15-1): A strong gate-to-wire winner sprinting in Lrl slop a year ago was last time this gelding saw the Winners’ Circle; first time going two turns and bloodlines indicate he can get it
  2. #2 – Zen’s Land (5-1): Is as game on an off track as he is on turf; has tested this MD-bred/sired condition twice before, both on turf and got a minor share
  3. #6 – Beltway Bob (8-1): Would have preferred the turf but won only previous outing on an off track, albeit not the flashiest BRIS# (78) 

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Crush It (9-2): MD-bred FTS by Not For Love out of a Smarten mare should love the off track; breeder, owner and trainer M. Eppler is in line to “crush it” purse-wise if this gelding turns out to be a good one
  2. #1 – I’ve Gotta Plan (4-1): Distant third at Tim two weeks back when in MSW; drops back to $25kMCL where he’s been close but no cigar; might start to wonder if he’ll ever graduate
  3. #2 – Cabinet Pik (5-2): Willing to give it a go on the main, sloppy oval as three career outings have been on sprinting on turf; instructions may be “Go to the lead and see how far he can go.”  

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Whiskey Wu (20-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Lone win came on this Lrl oval when muddy; willing to forgive last two when “Unruly; taken wide” on turf and “fractious in gate”
  2. #9 – Ticker Tape Parade (5-2): MTO entry will be part of the early pace; ran well for trainer B. McFarlane at Tim in first outing after $5k claim when in against Alw5000s
  3. #3 – Macue (12-1): Exits five straight turf outings as the SHOW purse in two have been best finishes; will welcome the sloppy surface (2:1-0-1)

Race 9

  1. #4 – Hey Niki (10-1): This 3-year-old daughter of Include should enjoy getting her hooves wet and the stretch out to two turns following a trio of sprints to start her career
  2. #6 – Follow the Petals (4-1): One of two uncoupled C. Gonzalez runners in here; steps up to highest level of her career after finishing at 5-2 odds v. lesser which was first time not in-the-money on an off track (6:3-0-2)
  3. #5 – Stormologist (6-1): Perfect name for the heavy rains falling at Lrl today; speed figs have been improving as each of last three have come on different surfaces (synthetic, good main, turf)

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #1 – Mojo’s Louise Cat (15-1): Tried to get a gate-to-wire score when second time blinkers but couldn’t last the one mile following two sprints; should have built up more stamina to get it done today
  2.  #9 – Titanium Love (10-1): A beast of an quine specimen took a while to get to the track he fetched $100k as a yearling; will try to reverse his debut fortunes; has a recent bullet work on slop  
  3.  #6 – Art of Listening (6-1): KY-bred FTS by Artie Shiller out of a Sunny’s Halo mare would have preferred turf but gets vote of confidence from trainer B. Trimble (26% in ’18) staying in for debut

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday September 8th at Laurel had 10 winners from the 12-race card (6 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 320 for 1114 (28.73%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $6.20
    • R2: $3.80
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $6.40
    • R5: $7.20
    • R6: $19.20
    • R7: $10.20
    • R8: $4.60
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: $16.80
    • R11: $6.60
    • R12: $3.20
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $9.40 (cost: $8) and the R11-R12 $2 DOUBLE for $17.20 (cost: $8).
  • BEST BET of the Day (112:29-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Petticoatsnpistols (11th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) chased the pace three wide around and faltered in upper stretch to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (109:20-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Whateverybodywants (7th race: 9-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) three wide the first turn, stalked the pace, circled the far turn four wide, was fanned to the five-path in upper stretch, bid for the lead outside TWIN VALOR in mid-stretch, drove clear to win by one-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $10.20 to WIN, $6.20 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.

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