The GQ Approach – Laurel September 8

by | Sep 8, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,010.19
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 11/ #4 – Petticoatsnpistols (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 /#5 – Whateverybodywants (9-2)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 9 w/ 3, 6 ($12)
    • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 3: 4, 5, 6 w/ 7, 8, 12, 13 w/ 1, 3, 5 ($18)
    • Race 11 – $2 Double:  4, 5, 8 w/ 4, 5, 6 ($18)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in upper-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – GOOD / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 if ON THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Laska/Sweeping In (8-5): Augustin Stables owned duo as Laska makes debut for trainer M. Matz while “Sweeping” will likely improve in second start, saddled by G. Motion        
  2. #9 – River Gal (15-1): Half sister to stakes winning brother River Deep should enjoy stretch out to one mile      
  3. #3 – Money Fromheaven (9-2): Out ran 21-1 odds in turf debut, third career start showing willingness to run on and get SHOW purse sprinting on Lrl turf
    If OFF the TURF go with #5-Abbo (6-1); #3-Money Fromheaven (9-2); #6-Flatter Me Owen (12-1)

Race 2

  1. #3 – Rare Eagle (8-5): Off the pace runner should have a trio eager to set a brisk early pace and loves Lrl  
  2. #6 – Rumblin Kyle (7-2): Missed a gate-to-wire score by a nose in latest; has responded to 7 lb. bug A. Quiles   
  3. #2 – Goodbyeseeulater (7-2): Speedy sort has won two straight vs. lesser

Race 3 if ON THE TURF

  1. #12 – Jumpstartmyheart (6-1): Like the late run this filly displayed sprinting on grass; stretches back out to familiar two-turn contest  
  2. #10 – Stillsexyatsixty (7-2): Couldn’t hold off rival late after taking lead in the stretch in first start against winners; BRIS#s on the rise  
  3. #6 – Beyond Forever (10-1): Key equipment change as trainer R. Bailes put blinkers back on which appears to have helped give this mare reason to run once again
    If OFF the TURF go with #6-Beyond Forever (10-1); #2-Gfour (4-1); #11-You Wish (15-1)

Race 4 if ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – A Great Time (8-5): Interesting that worst two showings which have come in last two have come when equipped with blinkers; even so earned a 92 BRIS#, tops among today’s foes   
  2. #4 – Chesapeake Springs (6-1): Cuts back to sprint after showing early speed going long in first start in two months; like that 5 lb. bug gets the call again 
  3. #8 – Go Magician Go (7-2): Second start after trainer D. Capuano claim has proven to be a winner 29% of the time; expect a top effort if this contest stays on the grass
    If OFF the TURF go with #3-Margie’s Money (3-1); #2-Sweethearted (12-1); #4-Chesapeake Springs (6-1)

Race 5

  1. #6 – Hainted (5-2): Was denied a winning debut in deep stretch but BRIS# came back strong enough to be better than any others in here   
  2. #4 – Dixie Do Good (4-1): Surely looks forward to this 6 furlongs as the 4 and 5 panels in previous starts just wweren’t enough ground as it seems this gal takes a while to get into gear 
  3. #5 – Heningham (7-2): MD-bred FTS by Bullsbay out of a Moon Valley mare; been working steadily in the A.M. for three months; could be among the good babies trainer C. Lynch barn has boasted about     

Race 6 if ON THE TURF

  1.   #7 – Tracy With a Y (4-1): Huge effort in debut sprinting on turf when tardy from the gate; gelded son of Street Magician should relish stretch out to two turns  
  2. #12 – Confessor (12-1): Ascending BRIS#s peaked in latest, first on turf when he displayed early speed traveling same distance as today  
  3. #13 – Wheels in Motion (20-1): Price play on or off turf making second start with blinkers; drops from MSW to $40kMCL and should improve in second outing at one mile
    If OFF the TURF go with #8-Unequivocal (3-1); #1-He’s Not Curly (6-1); #4-Tri Try Colors (9-2)

Race 7

  1. #5 – Whateverybodywants (9-2): $$ LONGSHOT $$ Made first start at Lrl a winning one three back versus similar; followed that up with traffic filled turf try then showed good energy late despite fourth-place finish in latest at Del       
  2. #3 – Brighton Lane (5-2): News flash as top CT jock comes in just to ride this guy for trainer K. Decker; has consistently hit the board at this level but ha a case of “Seconditis” (31:3-10-4) 
  3. #1 – Clubman (12-1): Third start after layoff; will like stretch out to two turns (3:2-0-1) and if track comes up sloppy or muddy (2 for 2)  

Race 8 if ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Maryland Pride (7-5): Trainer J. Runco claimed this gelding at GP back in April yet just now gets him in a race; by the looks of the work pattern he’s been retrained to be a sprinter       
  2. #6 – What a Run (6-1): Faced a tough bunch of N1x in first start against winners without getting involved but wasn’t given a clean trip; expect better in here         
  3. #5 – Great Adventure (3-1): Insanely fast gelding on turf will need to harness it a bit to get the additional half furlong
    If OFF the TURF go with #7-Cerulean Springs (9-5); #9-Sonic Boom E Jet (9-2); #2-Tambora (15-1)

Race 9

  1. #6 – Animalistic (5-2): Has the running style that should bodes well going one mile; should be more forwardly placed against this group             
  2. #1 – Donna’s Delight (3-1): 0 for 16 filly seems to have regained early speed from her past and with more stamina than before, she’s a threat to earn diploma   
  3. #2 – Cut Time (7-5): Sent off as 6-5 favorite in first two turn try, once again proved to be just a bridesmaid for sixth time in twelve starts              

Race 10 if ON THE TURF

  1.  #12 – Seeking the Sunset (5-1): Has taken to turf like a duck to water, especially in last outing registering a nearly 5-length victory which added up to an eye-popping 96 BRIS#; repeats here if he can avoid the “bounce”             
  2.  #14 – Pizmo Time (5-1): Third start after 10-month layoff; was well meant in return but came up short then repeated that in latest effort 
  3.    #5 – Don’t Poke the Cat (12-1): HOF jock E. PRado seeks to get back to Winners’ Circle aboard this gelding as he did v. OC25k in April; will need an honest pace
    If OFF THE TURF go with #2-Birdies Honor (10-1); #15-Jump Jive an Wail (9-2); #4-Tap the Moment (20-1)

Race 11

  1. #4 – Petticoatsnpistols (3-1): ** BEST BET ** Likes the Lrl main oval (2:1-0-1) and exits turf sprint where she showed late interest in first start after K. Leatherbury claim                  
  2. #5 – To Be Honest (9-2): Reunited with S. Russell who has had success aboard this filly; runner-up two weeks ago at Tim when dropped to this level  
  3. #8 – La Zoraya (4-1): Ran a winning race in latest when much the second best in debut at Lrl and for trainer R. Reid after racing in So. FL in previous outings                           

Race 12 if ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Another Broad (5-1): Like this one on or off the turf; BRIS#s have been climbing in dirt races; may get first shot on the grass             
  2. #6 – She’slikethewind (4-1): Only 4-year-old among 3-year-olds in this contest; M. Dickinson trainee has failed as favorite in last two though speed figs have improved            
  3. #3 – Glam (8-1): Second start with Lasix often renders positive results; banking on change of scenery will help along with turf riding skills of H. Karamanos
    If OFF THE TURF go with #5-Another Broad (5-1); #4-Weekend Delight (6-1); #7-Spring Run (5-1)

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday September 7th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 314 for 1102 (28.49%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $5.60
    • R3: $8.60
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $5.20
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.60
    • R8: $16.80
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (111:29-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) D J’s Favorite (6th race: 5-2 M/L; 8-5 PT) flashed early speed into the turn, was under strong urging when taken on by eventual winner then gave way in the stretch to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (108:19-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Blame the Kids (8th race: 10-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) tracked three-wide, bid outside HAYNE’S FEVER leaving the far turn, dueled under pressure into the lane, held a short advantage battling past the final furlong then edged clear under a strong drive to win by one-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $16.80 to WIN, $9.20 to PLACE and $5.40 to SHOW.

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