The GQ Approach – Laurel September 7

by | Sep 7, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live Fall racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6/ #4 – D J’s Favorite (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#4 – Blame the Kids (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double: 5, 6, 8 w/ 2, 6 ($12.00)
    • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 11, 12 w/ 2, 3, 5 w/ 4, 6, 8 ($13.50)
    • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5:  4 w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 1, 4 w/ 2, 7, 10 , 11 w/ 3, 4, 12 ($36)
    • Race 9 – $2 Double:  2, 7, 10 , 11 w/ 4, 12 ($16.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Afternoon showers, highs in mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Scaramucci (5-2): 3 for 3 as far as ITM while runner-up at short odds in last two, had legit excuse in latest; all races have been on turf; A. Cintron takes over for the absent V. Carrasco 
  2. #8 – The Keeper (7-2): Part of a well-meant debuting entry as stablemate proved to be the better one getting the win; this one encountered traffic along the one-mile turf contest, rallied to get 4th
  3. #6 – The Happy Giant (12-1): Made a nice late run sprinting on turf in debut to finish one-length behind top pick; willing to forgive dirt try in next outing; still no Lasix but gets jock upgrade

Race 2

  1. #6 – Doinwhatshelikes (2-1): Lone mount for C. Cedeno on S. Lake trainee can get it done from off the pace… as long as the track is fast (10:0-3-1 on an off track)
  2. #2 – Dorothyfromdublin (3-1): Have to believe she didn’t care for the bull ring at Tim; giving her a chance to redeem herself at the bottom
  3. #1 – Greely’s Striker (5-2): Late run on bull ring at Tim was an encouraging sign; back on Lrl oval which she loves (6:4-1-0)

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Astrea (4-1): Has stopped abruptly in last two on dirt, as favorite in latest; thinking switch back to turf will reverse that trend though concerned jock elects to ride a 15-1 FTS (#4 – Lunetta)
  2. #11 – Storm Diva (12-1): There’s enough early speed in here to think this Closer, who didn’t have a clean trip in last outing can catch leg-weary foes late
  3. #12 – Rightupyouralley (8-1): Beaten favorite when stepping up in class in an off the turf contest at this same level; did manage to be second best; trainer M.Eppler just 3% with first on turf runners

Race 4

  1. #5 – Sarah’s Treasure (2-1): Claimed for $25k out of Tim event where she rallied late just to get the SHOW purse as heavy second choice; winner did come back to be runner-up against better
  2. #3 – Hot Friesia (7-2): Game filly fits well here at this distance twice being bridesmaid v. similar; oddity that she broke maiden at Pim so she’s winless at Lrl (10:0-5-2)
  3. #2 – Bridgewater (5-2): Fresh off maiden win in second career outing after trainer D. Capuano dropped the slip on her in debut for $25k; still needs to take another step forward

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – More Abundance (6-1): Only experienced turf runner in here with early speed; if dirt speed runner (#7) fails to take to the turf or find footing tricky early; this one could steal it on front end
  2. #8 – Sheikh of Sheikhs (5-2): Winner v. open $25k claimers at Sar and snapped up by trainer L. Gaudet; was nominated for $75k MD Coalition on Tim dirt but guess turf was more appealing
  3. #6 – Grandiflora (7-2): Reclaimed four races back by trainer A. Merryman but still seeks first trip to Winners’ Circle since Nov. ‘17; second start with blinkers could help

Race 6

  1. #4 – D J’s Favorite (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Loves the Land of Pleasant Living (3:2-1-0) as only loss locally, by half-length came in latest when steadied; winner came back to get black-type in Tim Distaff (3rd by one-and-one-quarter-lengths)
  2. #3 – If I Were a Boy (12-1): Turf-to-dirt and third race after layoff; a “good” 7th-place effort on turf just a few lengths behind the likes of Rocky Policy, Crabcakes and My Sistersledge ain’t too shabby
  3. #2 – Phantom Shot (6-1): Easy winner at Tim two weeks ago but the waters get much deeper at this level; needs a pace meltdown to be a threat late 

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Goodnight Moon (2-1): Unlucky in latest v. MSW on Prx turf when bottled up on final turn, equipped first-time with blinkers; drops in for $25k tag and attracts T. McCarthy to ride
  2. #6 – Hey Mabel (5-1): Always tries whether on or off turf but lacks killer instinct; maybe change of scenery via J. Salzman, Jr. $16k claim and getting E. Prado in the irons makes her a winner
  3. #4 – Tapanista (5-2): Sent off 39-1 in debut on Del turf ran evenly yet the speed fig came back stronger than any of her foes have earned despite of her 7th-place finish

Race 8

  1. #4 – Blame the Kids (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Only entry/mount for CT shipping dynamic duo J. Runco/A. Bochachica (27% the past year); 3-yr-old appears to have figured out his job of late albeit at Mnr; was runner-up here in Feb., his last outing restricted to his peers 
  2. #1 – In Him With Him (5-1): Early speed from a rough rail assignment going one mile on drop back to level he has PLACEd twice prior to latest with H. Karamanos back as the pilot 
  3. #5 – Bob’s My Uncle (8-1): An ugly 2 for 44 record while 0 for 20 at this distance but usually gives a good account of himself for a minor share

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Proud O’Paddy (4-1): speedLone entry on the Lrl card for trainer J. Cibelli as she makes her way south following Mth meet; reunited w/ F. Lynch who won with him two back here
  2. #11 – Lunar Rille (15-1): Beat $40kMCL in turf debut, second career race as Post Time favorite; speed fig was strong and SHOW finisher broke maiden in next outing
  3.  #2 – Shifra Magician (12-1): Made her typical late run in the stretch to grab a minor share against a lone speed winner in latest effort; today’s pace should be more advantageous for a possible 4th career win in her 42nd start

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #4 – Architect (4-1): Got going late in 7 1/2f debut on Del turf then turned in dull effort in off the turf event; can make amends as long as race stays on turf based on pair of A.M. bullets since
  2. #12 – Afleet Fairy (8-1): Ran a winning race in debut on turf but was caught late as SHOW finisher graduated in next outing; far outside post will make it tough on K. Gomez to save ground early
  3.   #3 – Miss Patriot (6-1): Has improved in each of three career starts but unacceptable for trainer M. Dickinson trainees owned by Augustin Stable, known for good turf runners; 2nd start w/ Lasix

Yesterday’s News

  • On Monday September 3rd at Timonium had 7 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 311 for 1092 (28.48%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: xxx
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: $9.20
    • R4: $6.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $4.60
    • R7: $5.00
    • R8: $6.00
    • R9: $3.40
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, none were hit.
  • BEST BET of the Day (110:29-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) My Chesa Charm (8th race: 2-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) keen to clear from the outside, angled in to set a rated pace, drew away around the final turn and was in hand the final and returned $6.00 to WIN, $3.40 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (107:18-20-12; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Trufflesberg (9th race: 15-1 M/L; 9-1 PT) raced along the inner rail for five furlongs, swung to the three-path entering the stretch and had offered a slight rally and returned $3.80 to SHOW.

Check out...