The GQ Approach – Timonium September 3

by | Sep 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $909
  • Super High 5: $562
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8/ #8 – My Chesa Charm (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 /#3 – Trufflesberg (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 6 w/ 2, 3, 4 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 3, 7 w/ 3, 5, 6 w/ 4, 5, 7 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 20-cent Pick 6: 4, 7 w/ 1, 2, 7 w/ 3, 7 w/ 2, 8 w/ 3, 8, 9 w/ 2, 5, 6 ($21.60)
    MANDATORY PAYOFF today on the Pick-6; carryover is $909.

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the low-90s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Liberal Spin (7-2): Climbing speed figs, turf-to-dirt and likely forwardly placed has The Big T has been kind to  speed early in the card    
  2. #6 – Brother Slick Nick (5-1): Deep Closing type needs pace help to get it done; was very wide on turns here last week
  3. #5 – C B Bodemester (3-1): Just missed here last Sunday when 42-1 in first start for trainer J. Corrales, a level higher

Race 2

  1. #4 – A True Gentleman (5-2): A natural born Closer but trainer C. Manilla put speed into this gelding, might work today
  2. #2 – Uncle Billy (8-5): Ugly try at CT in first outing against non-winners of 3 races; jock/trainer combo win at 27% clip
  3. #3 – King of the Jungle (3-1): Conquered non-winners of two by a nose for $5k, steps up while the gettin’ is good 

Race 3

  1. #3 – Megstone (8-5): Turf runner takes steep class drop even though she was a bridesmaid on dirt v. much better  
  2. #7 – Value Added (6-1): Beaten favorite in latest when taken 6-wide; can make amends versus this bunch
  3. #2 – Nancy R (6-1): Looked good here last week getting second career win; likes the Tim bull ring (2:1-0-1)               

Race 4

  1. #6 – Howyaformoney (5-1): Caught up in a quick, early pace in latest at Lrl; should get a breather v. these
  2. #3 – Mo Big Deal (9-2): Third race after layoff and drops a level for trainer looking for first win in ‘18
  3. #5 – Lucky Kick (9-5): Brooks looking to take training title hopes this 3-yr-old can get first win on natural dirt

Race 5

  1. #4 – Transom (9-5): Has clocked fastest 4-furlong times in all three previous races; early speed rules in sprints
  2. #7 – Royally Cool (7-2): First-time starter for connections who paid $32k for her; jock’s only mount today 
  3. #5 – Bay of Rocks (5-1): Third start could be the charm as this gelding showed big improvement over debut

Race 6

  1. #2 – No More Talk (5-2): Gaudet claimed this gate-to-wire winner who earned career best speed fig in that one
  2. #7 – Young American (5-1): Looks to rebound from horrible showing here last weekend when Post Time favorite
  3. #1 – Expedited Vision (2-1): Second start with blinkers as this gray just missed going gate-to-wire here 10 days ago

Race 7

  1. #3 – Hide the Candy (3-1): Can forgive this colt for tiring in debut as he got loose in Post Parade; barn is on fire
  2. #7 – Mouth of the South (8-1): Hunch bet for old school wrestling fans; stumbled in debut when well bet (5-2
  3. #1 – Top Hat Tune (10-1): Tough rail assignment for debut but connections usually train early speed into 2-yr-olds

Race 8

  1. #8 – My Chesa Charm (2-1): * BEST BET * Drops a level in first race after claim but protected; nice bullet works
  2. #2 – Cocktail Waitress (9-5): Shipper from Ellis Park (KY) has been burning bettors money; should like extra distance
  3. #1 – Final Fear (9-2): Off the pace running style suits the added distance; faced tougher foes in latest 

Race 9

  1. #3 – Trufflesberg  (15-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Game 3-year-old has held her own since taking on elders in last three (3:1-2-0)
  2. #8 – Lady by Choice (3-1): Came to a stop in latest after being caught up in an early speed duel; trainer has done wonders
  3. #9 – Party Rock (7-2): Turf-to-dirt and making third start after layoff; will be part of a crowded group vying for the lead into the first turn 

Race 10

  1. #2 – Dial M (8-5): Turf-to-dirt and cut back in distance angles are in play here for the last race of the meet 
  2. #5 – Mais Oui d’Or (6-1): Compromised in last start when bobbled, used early to get good position then weakened
  3. #6 – Lemon Avocado (9-5): No excuse when 4-5 Post Time favorite here last weekend; speed figs have been ascending

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, September 2nd at Timonium had 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 308 for 1082 (28.47%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $8.20
    • R2: $4.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $14.40
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $6.20
    • R10: $6.60
  • Of  the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R1-R2 $2 Double that paid $19.20 (cost $12).
  • BEST BET of the Day (109:28-29-11; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Big City Blues (9th race: 7-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) lacked speed, swung out entering the backstretch, circled the far turn four-wide and failed to rally while finishing fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (106:18-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Bodega Bay (7th race: 12-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) patiently rated in the two-path around the second turn, angled out entering the backstretch, circled the far turn, closed outside TOBY GIRL, over took that one near the sixteenth pole and drew clear to win by two-lengths and returned $14.40 to WIN, $8.00 to PLACE and $6.00 to SHOW.

Check out...