The GQ Approach – Timonium August 31

by | Aug 31, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $372.56
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey/Trainer Combo - Take advantage of the statistics provided with the Past Performances, which give these stats for the current meet and over the past year; some trainer and jocks win at inordinately high rates.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5/ #8 – Jokers Tothe Right (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 1 /#6 – Eighty Bucks (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 6 w/ 1, 2, 6 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 4, 5 w/ 5, 6, 7 w/ 4, 8 ($9)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 8 w/ 4, 8, 9 w/ 1, 5, 7 w/ 1 w/ 2, 6, 7 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ showers, highs in the low-80s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #6 – Eighty Bucks (10-1): $$ LONGSHOT $$ May only be worth his name but running style fits 3-turn stretch out; blinkers come off
  2. #1 – Kiss N for Fun (5-2): Invader from Tdn (in Cle) ITM last 3 starts earning best speed figs of this bunch but hangs like a cheap suit
  3. #3 – Quest of Glory (7-5): Takes huge, hasty class drop to bottom; 2nd & 3rd place finishers from last race returned to win next race

Race 2

  1. #6 – Bella Be Proud (3-1): Only entry today for 22% trainer V. Carrasco, Jr. who wins w/ 27% of his runners in 2nd race after claim
  2. #2 – Proud Maid Marian (5-2): Could be lone speed with defection of Morning Line favorite (#4); third race after layoff
  3. #1 – Kenlake Resort (10-1): 1st start in 7 weeks but trainer A. Rawlings is 3 for 8 in this scenario; missed by 1-length v similar 2-back

Race 3

  1. #5 – Summer Smile (7-2): Has improved placing in each of her 3 starts; bridesmaid in latest v. better; poised to earn diploma today
  2. #3 – Neverenoughkandi (9-2): Debuts for barn who get firsters in for a tag to Winners Circle at 22% clip; look for early tote action
  3. #4 – Sip of Sunshine (3-1): A rocket from the gate since blinkers went on but last raced July 15, just one work since raises yellow flag

Race 4

  1. #5 – Catalodge (7-2): Tough to separate most in here as all have early speed; settled on the one who should be fastest from gate
  2. #6 – Issue a Warrant (7-2): Jocks only mount on the card rode this one to her only victory 5 races back; been getting minor shares 
  3. #7 – Cherokee Fire (4-1): Last outing was ugly which came 14 days after best effort ever speed fig-wise; wins with that effort here  

Race 5

  1. #8 – Jokers Tothe Right (5-2): * BEST BET * Got clowns to the left (at the Fair) why not?! Speed figs are climbing; jocks lone mount
  2. #4 – Ghost Affair (5-1): Speed of the speed but this distance may be a tad too far for her liking unless she can dictate slow fractions
  3. #7 – Queen to Checkmate (9-5): Seen similar before from trainer C. Gonzalez as a badly beaten favorite returns to get the money

Race 6

  1. #9 – Queenofthekingdom (3-1): Pid-based trainer/jock team got 3 wins here last weekend; this one’s only shot is to go gate-to-wire 
  2. #4 – Kitty Express (7-2): Third start after a layoff often yields a top effort; only win came on a muddy track; 0 for 11 on a fast oval
  3. #8 – Charming Emmy (7-2): Beaten favorite in her last two v. better; needs a quick early pace to catch leg-weary foes late

Race 7

  1. #5 – Hurricane Bear (9-2): Spends his time racing on turf & synthetic but 3:1-1-1 on fast track while 2 of those 3 were at this level 
  2. #7 – T Sizzle (7-2): Tis the season for Raven fans to back this one who is 2 for 5 in slop/mud but just 1 for 18 on a fast track 
  3. #1 – Whenthedovescry (6-1): Not sure this colt can get the distance but is quick enough to get early lead and could steal the win 

Race 8

  1. #1 – Renaissance Rosie (6-5): Obvious pick of the day but doubt it will be a cake walk as other speedsters could ruin the party
  2. #3 – Three Illusions (6-1): Couldn’t hang with foes racing one mile so she’s back to a sprint; has won her next race in same scenario 
  3. #6 – Conjecture (5-2): Will challenge top pick at every pole; Angle Trifecta: turf-to-dirt, cut back in distance, 3rd race after layoff 

Race 9

  1. #5 – Star Seed Child (2-1): Can boast BRISNET top Prime Power#; drops a class level in search of maiden win in third career start 
  2. #6 – Blame Julie (5-1): Has hit the board in both starts since trainer “Snake” Frock’s $16k claim;  was runner-up twice in CT bull ring 
  3. #7 – Angelinas Star (5-2): Impressive debut being much the second best against bottom level maidens; faces tougher gals today 

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, August 26th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 299 for 1053 (28.40%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $21.60
    • R2: $11.20
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $5.80
    • R5: $12.20
    • R6: $8.20
    • R7: $4.20
    • R8: $9.60
    • R9: $18.20
  • Of  the suggested multirace wagers, somehow none were hit.
  •  BEST BET of the Day (106:28-28-10; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Humbolt Street (3rd race: 3-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) angled out approaching the first turn, raced three wide both turns, chased the pace, in late and flattened to finish third and returned $5.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (103:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Sventastic (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) sat in a stalking position along the rail for the first half, then leveled out to finish fifth.

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