The GQ Approach – Timonium August 25

by | Aug 25, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Timonium

On the track at Timonium. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Timonium Fair Grounds for the 7 days of live racing during the Maryland State Fair (Aug. 24-26; Aug. 31, Sept. 1-3), Post Time 1:05pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Jackpot Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $137.48
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3/ #5 – Any Darn Day (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 /#6 – Hurler (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 4, 5 w/ 1, 2, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 5, 7 w/ 4, 5, 7 w/ 2, 4, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 1, 2 w/ 2, 5, 6, 10 w/ 5, 8 w/ 1, 5 w/ 3, 5 ($32)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 1, 5 w/ 3, 5, 7 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the mid-80s
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST 

1st Race Post Time 1:05pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #4 – Mais Oui d’Or (9-2): Has tired badly in last pair coming of short layoff but on a positive note could hold it together for 4 fur. 
  2. #5 – Lemon Avocado (8-5): Third start after claim for trainer who seems to eventually get more early speed out of his runners 
  3. #8 – Whenallelsefails (6-1): Finished ahead of both runners above on Jul 7 in lone dirt start; Pid-based trainer enters plenty at meet 

Race 2

  1. #7 – Fergie’s Lady (5-2): C. Gonzalez wants a 3rd straight Big T training title, here’s one example of how he gets it, big class drops 
  2. #1 – Binary Bourbon (3-1): Is 1 of 3 who earned their career best speed in latest effort (also #4 & #6); has 3-race win streak on dirt    
  3. #2 – Letmeslidebyyou (8-1): Has done well in first races after layoff; runner-up here last year to Keep Your Distance who’s in stakes     

Race 3

  1. #5 – Any Darn Day (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Cuts back in distance, turf to dirt; faced future stakes turf victor plus Sar winner in dirt MSWs 
  2. #7 – Vineyard (3-5): Much the second best in debut missing by a nostril after long stretch duel; SHOW horse returned to win on turf
  3. #1 – Cousin Jimmy (15-1): 1st dirt start after 3 on turf at double-digit odds w/ zero pedigree for grass; veteran jock make difference 

Race 4

  1.  #5 – French’s Quest (7-2): Exits turf sprint; got maiden win in previous turf-to-dirt effort; 4th v. similar two back as winner repeated 
  2.  #7 – My Pal Jerry (3-1): Edged out for second in latest v better group; extremely wide trip two back when beat by today’s ML fav.
  3.  #4 – Barin (6-1): Draw a line through latest as track was closer to sloppy, a surface he hates; reunited w/ jock aboard for lone win 

Race 5 is the $75k Timonium Distaff Stakes

  1. #4 – My Magician (4-1): Her foes have a ton of early speed, she does not, which bodes well for a late rally passing leg-weary gals
  2. #2 – Angel At War (3-1): Appears to be speed of the speed, if any of these gals can outrun the others in gate-2-wire fashion, it’s her
  3. #9 – Squan’s Kingdom (15-1): Price play as she comes off two distance races against better, including a G3; has the tactically speed to get first run on the early speed  

Race 6

  1.  #1 – Our Gabrielle (7-2): Pace needs to be contentious for this Closer who goes for natural Hat Trick; second start wearing blinkers 
  2.  #2 – Dorothyfromdublin (7-2): Trainer C. Frock gears up his barn for this meet every yr; cut back in distance might suit this gal well 
  3.  #5 – No More Excuses (3-1): 2 for 2 at Big T but those were at 4-furlongs; should wire field but if challenged early she’s vulnerable 

Race 7

  1.  #6 – Hurler (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Seems race written for this guy (N4L or NW since Feb. 23); 11-time winner last won Feb. 16 
  2.  #10 – It’s a Plane (20-1): Just 4 for 50 lifetime but 4 for 24 on fast track; likes TIM (5:2-0-1); two back faced tougher open claimers 
  3.  #5 – Arizona Baby (3-1): Likely pack leader into 1st turn gets positive jock switch, ‘bug’ to vet who won jock title here in ’17 & ‘18 

Race 8

  1.  #8 – Kresses (8-5): Bridesmaid in latest at Pen but previous one at Lrl was visually more impressive; no lock as she’s 0 for 4 on fast track 
  2.  #5 – To Be Honest (7-2): Opposite of top pick she dislikes a wet track; toss those outings and she’s an “honest” runner; like cut back 
  3.  #3 – Given Achance (15-1): Her own worst enemy, stumbling at starts and racing wide yet gives 110%; must improve to get “W” 

Race 9

  1.  #5 – Sarah’s Treasure (9-5): Yikes! She’s just 1 for 24 but gets favorable pace scenario to catch speedsters; faced better than these 
  2.  #1 – Malandrina (7-5): Outdueled by a nose at Del when 4-5 favorite v. 4 foes; will gun from rail but faces another long battle 
  3.  #4 – Baby Jean (12-1): Pulled off 14-1 shocker when winning debut at CT; SHOW runner came back to break maiden in next outing 

Race 10

  1.  #5 – Perfect Party Girl (9-2): Second behind next out winner sets stage for win #1 in start #27; don’t fret, she’s ONLY 0 for 10 on dirt 
  2.  #3 – Astrea (5-2): Encouraged top CT rider in for stakes in R5 stays to ride low-level maiden in nightcap; earns win w/ soft fractions 
  3.  #7 – Old Line Malibu (8-1): Took a break after dull debut at higher level as winner came back to repeat; adds blinkers, nice works 

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, August 24 at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 295 for 1034 (28.53%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $5.20
    • R2: $7.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $7.80
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $5.20
    • R9: $3.80
  • Of  the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R8-R9 DOUBLE which returned $14.40 on a $2 wager (total of $8 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (104:28-28-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Clickjab (1st race: 2-1 M/L; 6-5 PT) swung outside entering the backstretch, circled the far turn and rallied to miss by a half-length to return $2.40 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (101:16-20-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) A Lotta Wine (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) between rivals nearing the half mile pole, failed to respond and finished sixth.

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